MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

[Odin]

Does anyone know if any horses have ran in this race more than once and won?

I’ve backed Folcano for the Pertemps, but now I’ve seen the provisional rating only a few lbs higher (135) than it’s rating for this last year (132) , I worry that they will have another crack, considering it unseated at the 1st..

Any one else have any thoughts or stats on this? Thanks!

For info, I also backed folcano for pertemps initially but think he was trying when running in the 3m Navan handicap hurdle and just doesn't stay. Either this or the coral would be the target I expect him to take up at the festival. Hopefully (for me and a couple of others on here) tullybeg can prove an able deputy in the pertemps

[jrjr]

Isn't Top Bandit more likely for the County Hurdle. Two miles on the new course looks like it would suit perfectly. With Chemical Energy also supposedly destined for the Pipe it would seem like a more obvious destination.

Yep, this is where I expect to see him. Currently sitting top of my handicap shortlist.

[JackieMoon33]

Isn't Top Bandit more likely for the County Hurdle. Two miles on the new course looks like it would suit perfectly. With Chemical Energy also supposedly destined for the Pipe it would seem like a more obvious destination.

Exactly how I’d see it. Top Bandit not tried over further than 2m which would be against Gordon’s usual MO. Coupled with he travels and finishes off races great over 2m means I can’t see Top Bandit stepping up. He also need to be delivered late which they’ll be able to in a fast paced County.

[Lobos]

Exactly how I’d see it. Top Bandit not tried over further than 2m which would be against Gordon’s usual MO. Coupled with he travels and finishes off races great over 2m means I can’t see Top Bandit stepping up. He also need to be delivered late which they’ll be able to in a fast paced County.

He beat Jetoile into 3rd at Cheltenham as well which now looks really solid form.

[ComplyOrDie]

He beat Jetoile into 3rd at Cheltenham as well which now looks really solid form.

Jetoile went up in trip to win the next twice, as did the 2nd, Brorson, who has also won his next two starts. The form is good, no question about that, but he beat horses over a trip that now looked inadequate for them.

From that, I gauge he too could be very useful up in trip, coupled with his breeding.

I couldn't 100% discount the County Hurdle as a target, though I do have another couple of Gordons in mind for that.

For me, I think Top Bandit would be a serious contender for this race though.

As he is under 141 he would still have time to run up in trip once the weights are out and only clobber a 5lb penalty for it, so would still get in.

[JackieMoon33]

Jetoile went up in trip to win the next twice, as did the 2nd, Brorson, who has also won his next two starts. The form is good, no question about that, but he beat horses over a trip that now looked inadequate for them.

From that, I gauge he too could be very useful up in trip, coupled with his breeding.

I couldn't 100% discount the County Hurdle as a target, though I do have another couple of Gordons in mind for that.

For me, I think Top Bandit would be a serious contender for this race though.

As he is under 141 he would still have time to run up in trip once the weights are out and only clobber a 5lb penalty for it, so would still get in.

If you didn’t know his breeding and only watched his races, would you think he needs a step up? The breeding angle is questionable in this case anyway and never conclusive.

I very much doubt they’ll want to take a penalty into the Festival and add anything extra to his mark when he’s already guaranteed to run in any handicap they want.

[ComplyOrDie]

If you didn’t know his breeding and only watched his races, would you think he needs a step up? The breeding angle is questionable in this case anyway and never conclusive.

I very much doubt they’ll want to take a penalty into the Festival and add anything extra to his mark when he’s already guaranteed to run in any handicap they want.

It's kinda irrelevant because we do have his breeding, but if I had to look on form alone he doesn't interest me for the County at all, especially off 139. He's been beating low level horses over 2m, and has a high enough mark for doing so. I've looked at the form, and noted what he has beat and what they've gone on to do, and the majority need or have produced over further. If he's an out and out 2 miler he needs to be having the speed and pace to be beating them further, IMO.

If he was being primed for the County I'd be wanting a Belfast Banter rating of around 129, for a novice, like him. He's 2lbs higher than Saint Roi when he ran in the race, and on what we've seen (manner of victories) I'd have him in no way close to him. The only way I see enough improvement in him for a festival race is a step up in trip, and the Martin Pipe has that ceiling of 145, so you know the rough level you're aiming at, which is what Gordon is so good at.

As I've said before, I may be way off the mark, but I won't be backing for the County Hurdle, regardless, and will congratulate those that have should he end up winning it

[Quevega]

It's kinda irrelevant because we do have his breeding, but if I had to look on form alone he doesn't interest me for the County at all, especially off 139. He's been beating low level horses over 2m, and has a high enough mark for doing so. I've looked at the form, and noted what he has beat and what they've gone on to do, and the majority need or have produced over further. If he's an out and out 2 miler he needs to be having the speed and pace to be beating them further, IMO.

If he was being primed for the County I'd be wanting a Belfast Banter rating of around 129, for a novice, like him. He's 2lbs higher than Saint Roi when he ran in the race, and on what we've seen (manner of victories) I'd have him in no way close to him. The only way I see enough improvement in him for a festival race is a step up in trip, and the Martin Pipe has that ceiling of 145, so you know the rough level you're aiming at, which is what Gordon is so good at.

As I've said before, I may be way off the mark, but I won't be backing for the County Hurdle, regardless, and will congratulate those that have should he end up winning it

Belfast Banter was fortunate to get in.
Most years you need to be in low 130's at least.
Sweet spot going back a few years is actually around the 139 mark,

[ComplyOrDie]

Belfast Banter was fortunate to get in.

Yeah, I'm aware of that, but that doesn't change the sort of rating I would be wanting Top Bandit to have for a race like the County. Belfast Banter was running, with a fair amount of respect as well, in some graded races, before his County Hurdle win, a fair gap to what Top Bandit has been running in.

[JackieMoon33]

It's kinda irrelevant because we do have his breeding, but if I had to look on form alone he doesn't interest me for the County at all, especially off 139. He's been beating low level horses over 2m, and has a high enough mark for doing so. I've looked at the form, and noted what he has beat and what they've gone on to do, and the majority need or have produced over further. If he's an out and out 2 miler he needs to be having the speed and pace to be beating them further, IMO.

If he was being primed for the County I'd be wanting a Belfast Banter rating of around 129, for a novice, like him. He's 2lbs higher than Saint Roi when he ran in the race, and on what we've seen (manner of victories) I'd have him in no way close to him. The only way I see enough improvement in him for a festival race is a step up in trip, and the Martin Pipe has that ceiling of 145, so you know the rough level you're aiming at, which is what Gordon is so good at.

As I've said before, I may be way off the mark, but I won't be backing for the County Hurdle, regardless, and will congratulate those that have should he end up winning it

It's not irrelevant as the forum is littered with wrongly assumed trips based on breeding and I'm guilty as much as the next man. Breeding is only part of the equation and there is nothing conclusive on that front to suggest a step up is what he's crying out for. The eye test on the other hand gives an indication of a powerful traveller with a turn of foot and CD experience (albeit not the same 'course' as the County but I don't think that will inconvenience him). If you watch his races back and read the comments, he does need to be delivered late and is a bit of an idler, therefore his winning margins are never going to be huge regardless of racing against stayers. If anything, racing stayers would inconvenience him more as he's likely to go past them earlier.

Belfast Banter was an outlier as you'd rarely get in on 129 in a normal year.

[ComplyOrDie]

It's not irrelevant as the forum is littered with wrongly assumed trips based on breeding and I'm guilty as much as the next man. Breeding is only part of the equation and there is nothing conclusive on that front to suggest a step up is what he's crying out for. The eye test on the other hand gives an indication of a powerful traveller with a turn of foot and CD experience (albeit not the same 'course' as the County but I don't think that will inconvenience him). If you watch his races back and read the comments, he does need to be delivered late and is a bit of an idler, therefore his winning margins are never going to be huge regardless of racing against stayers. If anything, racing stayers would inconvenience him more as he's likely to go past them earlier.

Belfast Banter was an outlier as you'd rarely get in on 129 in a normal year.

I meant it's irrelevant because we do still have his breeding to go on and it is a small (sometimes bigger where limited information is available) part of the make up of a decision, or at least it is for me. It's, of course, not the be all and end all (now I sound like Nicholls), but I take it into consideration, in some cases more than others. The 'eye test' is up for as much scrutiny as relying on breeding, because we tend to see what we want to see, no different to when we are using our eyes to read through form lines, we may ignore some areas and use the ones that increase our ability to defend our opinion, I believe the term is 'confirmation bias' though I may be wrong.

I've been and watched the replays of his runs, and I think he travels well enough that a step up in trip would suit him really well (my confirmation bias creeping in ).

As I noted to Quevega, the point in relation to Belfast Banter is where I think his rating should be for what he's actually achieved, which is also why I think the Martin Pipe would be more appropriate for him as it has a 'ceiling' on rated horses (145), whereas the County is a completely open handicap.

I actually just been through the last 10 winners of the race and with the exception of Saint Roi (surprise, surprise, a Willie Mullins horse), the other 9 winners have run in a Graded race of some sorts, previously at some point to winning it. Saint Roi, was, what I would call, a proper plot, a bit like Galopin Des Champs, last season, in the Martin Pipe.

Not that it should have an awful lot of relevance, but Petit Mouchoir, last season, was the closest Gordon (obviously ran under Denise Foster) has come to winning the County Hurdle. I don't think it's a race he has much success in, and a 139 rated novice hurdler, who has average winning form, definitely does not appeal to me.

FWIW, Belfast Banter running off 129, isn't actually the lowest rated in the last 3 seasons, as Chieftain's Choice ran off 127 in 2019. The lowest ratings to be able to get in to a County are very up and down, and literally just depend on the year.

[Eggs]

….Langer Dan Imperial Cup/MP 16-1 Sky.

[Istabraq]

….Langer Dan Imperial Cup/MP 16-1 Sky.

Another embarrassing effort from Sky….

[Benjy23]

Basically 3/1 for each race. Surely not. One of the worst that imo. Winning the first isn't even a requirement for him to run in the second, which for me is a key consideration with these bets.

[Lobos]

Langer may need his Imperial run after his lay off to bring him on for the Martin Pipe race a few days later. Be good if he gets beat at Sandown but runs a decent race so that his MP price is better value.