The Randox Health COUNTY Handicap Hurdle

[darlojim]

I do actually think he's a good horse, I'm not rubbishing him. Just would put me off massively if Willie doesn't think he's good enough to run in a pretty wide open Supreme. I think it would be unlikely that connections would be convinced to run a Supreme candidate in a handicap too. If he was off 141 like State Man was, then I'd say fair enough, I just don't see it off 147. Maybe it's just more the vibes I get from M&S, to me it seems like they want grade 1 winners, if they had a chance in one then they'd always choose that over a handicap.

He did say he had Dark Raven for the Supreme tbf, and we don't know what Willie has said to them do we? He could have easily said 'look facile wins by the length of the straight, don't waste a chance with Hunters in this while he can go bolt up in the County, it will suit him down to the ground'

Maybe I'm just thinking that

[Dandrew99]

He did say he had Dark Raven for the Supreme tbf, and we don't know what Willie has said to them do we? He could have easily said 'look facile wins by the length of the straight, don't waste a chance with Hunters in this while he can go bolt up in the County, it will suit him down to the ground'

Maybe I'm just thinking that

Hahaha, I mean I'm just thinking out loud too... just think that comparing with what they did with State Man who is a totally different horse in a very different Supreme is a bit silly. Maybe I'm just thinking what I'd do in their shoes, if I were them I'd be running Hunters Yarn in the Supreme and stepping Dark Raven up to the Ballymore so that Jacob has a ride in both (assuming PT chooses EIP).

[Quevega]

Hahaha, I mean I'm just thinking out loud too... just think that comparing with what they did with State Man who is a totally different horse in a very different Supreme is a bit silly. Maybe I'm just thinking what I'd do in their shoes, if I were them I'd be running Hunters Yarn in the Supreme and stepping Dark Raven up to the Ballymore so that Jacob has a ride in both (assuming PT chooses EIP).

The comparison with State Man was because he was rated 141 and is now rated 167.
Could throw in Saint Roi as well.
Both won with enough in hand to suggest had they ran off 147 they'd have still gone close to winning.
He is also trained by Willie Mullins who regularly gets hurdlers rated in the 160's.
I don't know if Hunters Yarn is well handicapped or not, but he could be, and he could easily end up rated 160+

Mullins has higher rated hurdlers to aim at the grade ones, and maybe he is likely to run in the county simply because he has an OK rating and the owners are not adamant in this instance about where this horse runs.

[Dandrew99]

The comparison with State Man was because he was rated 141 and is now rated 167.
Could throw in Saint Roi as well.
Both won with enough in hand to suggest had they ran off 147 they'd have still gone close to winning.
He is also trained by Willie Mullins who regularly gets hurdlers rated in the 160's.
I don't know if Hunters Yarn is well handicapped or not, but he could be, and he could easily end up rated 160+

Mullins has higher rated hurdlers to aim at the grade ones, and maybe he is likely to run in the county simply because he has an OK rating and the owners are not adamant in this instance about where this horse runs.

Both were also 5 year olds who are obviously open to a fair bit more improvement, and had only ran 3 times. Saint Roi ran off 137, I doubt he's winning off 147. State Man probably would have won off 147, yeah fair enough. I see the angle you're talking about, it's fairly obvious, but I still think if Willie thinks he's a 160+ hurdler then he'd be in the Supreme. Game of opinions though isn't it, been wrong plenty of times before

If State Man didn't exist, then Hunters Yarn would probably be double the price. Similar to Spanish Harlem and Galopin Des Champs. Il Etait Temps is only 1 pound higher and you could make literally exactly the same case for him, but he's running in the Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

Both were also 5 year olds who are obviously open to a fair bit more improvement, and had only ran 3 times. Saint Roi ran off 137, I doubt he's winning off 147. State Man probably would have won off 147, yeah fair enough. I see the angle you're talking about, it's fairly obvious, but I still think if Willie thinks he's a 160+ hurdler then he'd be in the Supreme. Game of opinions though isn't it, been wrong plenty of times before

If State Man didn't exist, then Hunters Yarn would probably be double the price. Similar to Spanish Harlem and Galopin Des Champs. Il Etait Temps is only 1 pound higher and you could make literally exactly the same case for him, but he's running in the Supreme.

I wasn't on board with that at all until the last sentence.... but that makes me think neither win

[Exar Essay]

I wasn't on board with that at all until the last sentence.... but that makes me think neither win

There’s a reason for that. It’s wrong. IET is 8lbs higher.

I actually agree with Dans point tho. Is Hunters Yarn that far ahead of his mark?

[jack1092]

Both were also 5 year olds who are obviously open to a fair bit more improvement, and had only ran 3 times. Saint Roi ran off 137, I doubt he's winning off 147. State Man probably would have won off 147, yeah fair enough. I see the angle you're talking about, it's fairly obvious, but I still think if Willie thinks he's a 160+ hurdler then he'd be in the Supreme. Game of opinions though isn't it, been wrong plenty of times before

If State Man didn't exist, then Hunters Yarn would probably be double the price. Similar to Spanish Harlem and Galopin Des Champs. Il Etait Temps is only 1 pound higher and you could make literally exactly the same case for him, but he's running in the Supreme.

IET would probably be a prime candidate for here if he hadn't have won at the drf though...

I do disagree with this as the dogs were long barking about State Man but he toppled at Leop and at one stage was a no-go for the festival at all. Simply circumstance. Hunters Yarn is qualified, Dark Raven isn't, could be that simple?

[Quevega]

Both were also 5 year olds who are obviously open to a fair bit more improvement, and had only ran 3 times. Saint Roi ran off 137, I doubt he's winning off 147. State Man probably would have won off 147, yeah fair enough. I see the angle you're talking about, it's fairly obvious, but I still think if Willie thinks he's a 160+ hurdler then he'd be in the Supreme. Game of opinions though isn't it, been wrong plenty of times before

If State Man didn't exist, then Hunters Yarn would probably be double the price. Similar to Spanish Harlem and Galopin Des Champs. Il Etait Temps is only 1 pound higher and you could make literally exactly the same case for him, but he's running in the Supreme.

He's probably running because he has four runs - this year is different in that regard, and probably why he's got a higher rating also.
I wasn't arguing the case for Hunters being already a stone well in, that seems fanciful really, but he could be a few pounds better that his handicap mark at this time of his career and therefore competitive in the county.

Won't disagree about the price either, or the comparison with Spanish Harlem.

Although I will point out that Il Etait Temps is rated 155 in the UK !.

Mullins might run horses lower rated in the grade 1's this year than Hunters Yarn, but they won't have had more then 3 runs I reckon.

Off on a tangent but....
The worse price of Mullins 2 at the head of the market is Sharjah, as if Arctic Fire didn't exist then he'd have no chance. (Liking the "if X horse didn't exist" stance)
I've seen people compare Sharjah's chances to Arctic Fire and Wicklow Brave, but I thuink people are forgetting that Wicklow Brave was rated 139 and the SP's for both was 20-1 and 33-1 respectively.

[Dandrew99]

There’s a reason for that. It’s wrong. IET is 8lbs higher.

I actually agree with Dans point tho. Is Hunters Yarn that far ahead of his mark?

Yep apologies... Racing Post lied to me

[Kevloaf]

There’s a reason for that. It’s wrong. IET is 8lbs higher.

I actually agree with Dans point tho. Is Hunters Yarn that far ahead of his mark?

Hahaha, oh, then I retract!

I (unfortunately) do agree with Q's read on that.... for me it's just circumstance.... Willie will end up with a well handicapped horse even if it wasn't 'the plan' ... as he has so many.

The difference with Hunters Yarn to State Man, is HY was never on the radar really to be a G1 animal, State Man was, but things didn't go well....


A horse like Parmenion, who was well talked up but flopped, is one of those that 'could' have been a State Man, but it's not an option now.....



I personally don't think HY will win the County, but did back today at 9/1 and will re-assess my position mwhen the day of race markets are out...

[Kevloaf]

Off on a tangent but....
The worse price of Mullins 2 at the head of the market is Sharjah, as if Arctic Fire didn't exist then he'd have no chance. (Liking the "if X horse didn't exist" stance)
I've seen people compare Sharjah's chances to Arctic Fire and Wicklow Brave, but I thuink people are forgetting that Wicklow Brave was rated 139 and the SP's for both was 20-1 and 33-1 respectively.

Wooooo, love it when this happens .... but I massively disagree with that....

Not the price vs the others.... that's not wrong....

but Sharjah is most likely to run to his rating and has a rating we can believe..... so he's the bar, he's the one to beat isn't he?

......................now I've actually read what you've said and I've jumped the gun..... but won't delete I'm just arguing with a point that no-one has made.


FWIW, I think Sharjah sets the bar, if he's declared, he's the horse we need to find one that's '"well in" against. He'll run to his rating, and that may well be good enough!

[Dandrew99]

Quevega that's basically my entire point, either he's a 155-160 horse and he would be in the Supreme (IMO, I know others will think different) or he's got a few pounds at best in hand and he shouldn't be 2nd favourite. People are just clinging to find this year's State Man, but I think it's pretty obvious that there just isn't one this year.

Agreed on Sharjah though, at his peak he might have been competitive off 155, but he has no chance

[Quevega]

Wooooo, love it when this happens .... but I massively disagree with that....

Not the price vs the others.... that's not wrong....

but Sharjah is most likely to run to his rating and has a rating we can believe..... so he's the bar, he's the one to beat isn't he?

......................now I've actually read what you've said and I've jumped the gun..... but won't delete I'm just arguing with a point that no-one has made.


FWIW, I think Sharjah sets the bar, if he's declared, he's the horse we need to find one that's '"well in" against. He'll run to his rating, and that may well be good enough!

Yeah - I think people also mentioned Petit Mouchoir to enhance Sharjah's claims also. But his SP was 22-1 and was available at much bigger, as was Arctic and Wicklow.
10-1 for nothing else to run ahead of its mark in a Cheltenham handicap is not great value.
Nothing to say he can't win, as it's a handicap, but his price is shit (like you) - Jono is my new favourite

[Quevega]

Quevega that's basically my entire point, either he's a 155-160 horse and he would be in the Supreme (IMO, I know others will think different) or he's got a few pounds at best in hand and he shouldn't be 2nd favourite. People are just clinging to find this year's State Man, but I think it's pretty obvious that there just isn't one this year.

Agreed on Sharjah though, at his peak he might have been competitive off 155, but he has no chance

Some might be, But I've backed him (12-1) cos it's a Willie Mullins horse in the county hurdle.
Don't think that's a great price to be fair and if the vibes are similar to your thought process he'll drift on the day.
But I'd still prefer to be on him rather than Sharjah of Mullins top 2 (at present)

[Kevloaf]

Yeah - I think people also mentioned Petit Mouchoir to enhance Sharjah's claims also. But his SP was 22-1 and was available at much bigger, as was Arctic and Wicklow.
10-1 for nothing else to run ahead of its mark in a Cheltenham handicap is not great value.
Nothing to say he can't win, as it's a handicap, but his price is shit (like you) - Jono is my new favourite

Haha, Jono has and always will be a better judge than me. Never disputed that



Only thing I'd disagree with is the 10/1 for nothing else to run ahead of its mark to not be great value. As an each way bet, I'd say I'd be surprised if 5 run better, therefore it's a shot to nowt?

Sharjah is easily the best horse on what he's done so far, and I'd be confident he's better than anything that'll come out of it! ...... so 10/1 e/w, I don't see the negativity...