The Randox Health COUNTY Handicap Hurdle

[Eggs]

The County Hurdle:

THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had won no more than 4 hurdle races.
- Had won no more than 2 H’cap hurdles, 6 winning 0. Two had never run in a H’cap.
- Had won a hurdle race over 2m - 2m1f.
- Had an average OR of 140, with only 3 rated higher.
- Aged 5-8.

9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Carried 11st 5lb or less.
- Had never won a G1.
- Had run no more than 4 times, 7 had won.
- Made top 3 in at least it’s last 3 runs.
- Had never won at Chelt.

[nortonscoin200]

PEMBROKE (136) given a lovely racing weight of 10st 7lbs.

That puts him 44th in the list and the question is - will he get in (max 26 starters).

Willie and Gordon each have eight entries above him.

Willie's been running 5 in the County in recent years and Gordy a maximum of 4.

So I think it's fair to assume 7 of their entries won't turn up.

That means 11 more have to fall by the wayside for him to get in.

Inclined to think it's odds-on he makes it.

Only once in the last 8 years has 136 failed to get in the County.

The lowest ORs were (2022 first): 134, 129, 133,127,133,134, 138,134.

Before that the field had 28 runners. The final 2 lowest ORs under that format were both 132.

Dan's won the race three times in the last decade with horses rated 146,139 and 138.

Imagine he's pretty happy with how the race is shaping for Pembroke (general 8-1, 10-1 on the machine).

And he could end up with three at the bottom of the weights with Playful Saint at 46 and Falvoir (also entered in the Pipe) at 48.

[Kevloaf]

Nothing really to lose backing him now without NRNB ?

Balloted out would be money back!

[Lobos]

Willie must be tempted to throw Hunters Yarn in here off that weight.

Might as well. County or nothing because he's not winning a Supreme imo.

[Quevega]

My calculations - should he be ok to run again in a fortnight, would make Colonel Mustard a worthy (solid) favourite for this race now.

Unpenalised and on a line through Teddy Blue (guessing, but looked to run the a similar level as in the betfair) - He's around 8lb well in vs the current FAV Filey Bay.

Not taking into account any claims in the county. both likely to have at least a 3lb claimer on board, although not necessarily for Filey Bay.

Only 3lb higher than last year and the ones that beat him are all a lot higher now. (26lb and 10lb higher)

[Kevloaf]

My calculations - should he be ok to run again in a fortnight, would make Colonel Mustard a worthy (solid) favourite for this race now.

Unpenalised and on a line through Teddy Blue (guessing, but looked to run the a similar level as in the betfair) - He's around 8lb well in vs the current FAV Filey Bay.

Not taking into account any claims in the county. both likely to have at least a 3lb claimer on board, although not necessarily for Filey Bay.

Only 3lb higher than last year and the ones that beat him are all a lot higher now. (26lb and 10lb higher)

Very interesting.

Into 14s, what do you think ... will people catch on, or drifter from the price right now?

[Quevega]

Very interesting.

Into 14s, what do you think ... will people catch on, or drifter from the price right now?

If they state he's an intended runner I'd expect a slow creep.
He went off 13/2 last year, 2nd favourite,
Something fancy but unproven may best him for favourite - but he rates the more solid proposition, and many would latch onto that.
14-1 is still very fair. IMO.
I'm not going mad as it's the county hurdle, I've got 2ptew at 25-1 and the related double 1ptew.

I think they pulled from the betfair cos of the ground so that means NRNB a must.

[Studfarm254]

Sharjah off 155

arctic fire just saying

Mark 3lb lower than arctic. Could also draw similarities with petit mouchoir who nearly won this 2 years ago at the same age with an identical mark. But he’s a better horse than petit. He’s a multiple grade 1 winner and twice champion hurdle runner up. I still think he retains most if not all his ability. Made an horrendous mistake when behind stateman 2 runs back. Then was beat narrowly by fil dor conceding 4lbs and making another terrible mistake, accompanied with a terrible ride from Patrick, really should have won that comfortably. Just needs to cut out that 1 mistake, he’s a huge player here

[Nathaniel99999]

So I'm personally hoping the horse I'm gonna say is going to Coral cup, but its been entered in this aswell and I've backed it for both races just incase. My main selection is actually colonel Mustard. But the one I've also done and I think people have completely missed out on and blind sided is Cialos Emery. How on earth have bookies got this at 66/1 it's a gift. I looked at its entries and mark and it's on 144. This is a horse that competed in a Champion hurdle off a mark of 159. And only finished 5 lengths behind Sharjah that year who's 155. I know it's been doing chasing but if connections decide its going back to hurdles surely this could be so overpriced for this and the Coral?? As I've said I've backed it for both because wherever it goes it's mark I think is so overlooked.

[Nathaniel99999]

So I'm personally hoping the horse I'm gonna say is going to Coral cup, but its been entered in this aswell and I've backed it for both races just incase. My main selection is actually colonel Mustard. But the one I've also done and I think people have completely missed out on and blind sided is Cialos Emery. How on earth have bookies got this at 66/1 it's a gift. I looked at its entries and mark and it's on 144. This is a horse that competed in a Champion hurdle off a mark of 159. And only finished 5 lengths behind Sharjah that year who's 155. I know it's been doing chasing but if connections decide its going back to hurdles surely this could be so overpriced for this and the Coral?? As I've said I've backed it for both because wherever it goes it's mark I think is so overlooked.

The horse is actually running in France tomorrow, so I'm not sure if it will still go to Cheltenham, if it does though and with new connections I would think it might still be worth doing each way for places NNRB.

[Hurricane fly]

Sharjah off 155

arctic fire just saying

AF comparisons are made almost every year for a horse in the county and imo are always way off.

AF was 8 and dropped nearly a stone for not being seen for a full season.

Sharjah is 10, his rating has been dropping slowly for 2 years and was seen last month.

Outside of being trained by Mullins there is little common ground imo

[Jrow]

Sharjah can be compared to Petit Mouchoir when he ran second to bottom weight Belfast Banter giving almost a stone away. If he has a good solid claimer on board he has every chance

[callhimgamblor]

First Street at 16/1 nrnb is value surely? 152 OR and course form as he was gaining on state man after the last last year. Won in November before a very light season. What am I missing?

[AaronLad]

First Street at 16/1 nrnb is value surely? 152 OR and course form as he was gaining on state man after the last last year. Won in November before a very light season. What am I missing?

up 10lbs on last years rating and couldn't win then, why could he win this year? what am i missing?

[Istabraq]

First Street at 16/1 nrnb is value surely? 152 OR and course form as he was gaining on state man after the last last year. Won in November before a very light season. What am I missing?

I love horses like him, genuine honest and very talented but just short of graded company, this is exactly what top handicaps should be about, trouble is the novices keep dominating them en route to G1 success.
He'll put in 100% and might nick 4th....