The Randox Health COUNTY Handicap Hurdle

[nortonscoin200]

Not an easy one Aye with him winning in France prior admittedly. The third has prob run within 3lbs of his mark and with the weight swings winner 154 3rd 142 runner up be around 146 then British tax over here not easy first run in a hcap around 150 not be far off.

If they go for the County Hurdle with Saint Felicien I wouldn't be surprised to see Jordan Gainford take 3lbs off.

Looks like he could be handicapped out of the Pipe and his likely rating would be more suited to the Coral - but he didn't look as though he needs the extra distance today.

Just wonder if a mark around 146 or higher might make them decide to skip the Festival altogether.

But if he does show up at Cheltenham the County looks the most likely target now imo.

[Outlaw]

I wouldn’t be surprised if they swerve Cheltenham completely as he’s in no man’s land this season.

Yeah I'd agree inexperience too thou still a decent run considering it's only his 3rd start,plenty of time on their side with him.

If they go for the County Hurdle with Saint Felicien I wouldn't be surprised to see Jordan Gainford take 3lbs off.

Looks like he could be handicapped out of the Pipe and his likely rating would be more suited to the Coral - but he didn't look as though he needs the extra distance today.

Just wonder if a mark around 146 or higher might make them decide to skip the Festival altogether.

But if he does show up at Cheltenham the County looks the most likely target now imo.

As Jackie says potentially stuck between a rock and a hard place for his next few starts, be some effort to be going close in a hcap off the high 140s after 3 starts.

[Saxon Warrior]

[QUOTE=Outlaw;n3514 I'd agree inexperience too thou still a decent run considering it's only his 3rd start,plenty of time on their side with him.


As Jackie says potentially stuck between a rock and a hard place for his next few starts, be some effort to be going close in a hcap off the high 140s after 3 starts.

[/QUOTE]

He will be 10lb+ more than Saint Roi, when he won the County.

Needs to make his way in grade 3 or grade 2 races this spring.

[Outlaw]

He will be 10lb+ more than Saint Roi, when he won the County.

Needs to make his way in grade 3 or grade 2 races this spring.

Yep which is why my original comment was "not helping themselves" more than likely today was can he line up in a CH field this early in his career in all honesty, but I'm not crabbing the horse given how inexperienced he is.

[Saxon Warrior]

Yep which is why my original comment was "not helping themselves" more than likely today was can he line up in a CH field this early in his career in all honesty, but I'm not crabbing the horse given how inexperienced he is.

Yep it was an all or nothing try re Cheltenham.

He ran well, but there's not a race at Cheltenham he would be a good thing in now.

[Stormez]

Stuart Williams has put up No Ordinary Joe 16/1

[RoadToCheltenham]

Gordon has entered Saint Felicien at Musselburgh this weekend. Fishing for a mark...

[nortonscoin200]

Gordon has entered Saint Felicien at Musselburgh this weekend. Fishing for a mark...

Fascinating to see what they give him.

If you take a line from his seasonal debut 2l win over Slip of the Tongue off levels then Saint Felicien is 11lbs behind Teahupoo (149) and 12lbs behind Quilixios (150 which would put him on 137.

Yesterday's run would put Saint Felicien 8lbs behind Darasso (raised 5lbs to 155) and 4lbs ahead of Whisky Sour (145) so that would put him somewhere between 147 and 149.

So my guess would be that he might escape with an Irish rating of 147.

That alone would put him 10lbs higher than Saint Roi when he won the County - and any extra tax would make a tilt at the County extremely difficult imo.

But Gordon is nothing if not resourceful and I'd love to see him put Shane Fitzgerald up claiming 5lbs. Gordon's used him in recent months and he's a talented young jockey.

If that came to pass and Saint Felicien rocked up on 147 with Fitzgerald on board then I don't think he would be a forlorn hope.

I was very disappointed with SF's performance at the time but I've since had second thoughts - maybe trying to find solace where none exists!!!

But the case for cautious optimism is this:

Felix Desjy set an absolutely brutal pace with Saint Felicien and Whisky Sour laying up about 4 lengths adrift and Darasso towards the back.

I'm just wondering if the race kind of fell apart entering the home straight - because they went too fast - enabling Darasso to pick them all off.

If you accept that notion, then Saint Felicien did pretty well to plug on and beat Whisky Sour.



The time of the race was 3m 53.5secs on good to yielding (yielding in places). The going was later changed to yielding after race 7.

Champion Green won the maiden 30 minutes later in 4m 6.8secs - more than 11 seconds slower and carrying 2lbs more than SF.

Man O Work won division two of the maiden in 4 mins 3.6secs carrying 5lbs less than SF - so again the race was more than 10 seconds slower than Darasso's time.

120-rated Bigz Belief won the handicap hurdle in 4mins 17.1secs - carrying 4lbs more than SF but more than 23 seconds slower than Darasso.


It's also worth bearing in mind that Saint Felicien was having only his third start over hurdles and gave 4lbs and a beating to Whisky Sour who finished 4th in the 2019 County Hurdle off 144 and 3rd in the 2018 edition off 141.

And in case anyone's saying Whisky Sour is not the same horse now - I'm sorry but he has posted career best hurdling rprs in his last two runs, the best being at Fairyhouse just 2 months ago.

So by that reckoning Saint Felicien would have to come into the reckoning for the County. Whisky Sour went off 5-1 fav in 2019 and 7-1 in 2018.



I also compared yesterday's times with the one posted by Espoir Allen in the Limestone Lad before he went on to win the Champion Hurdle.

Espoir D'Allen clocked 3mins 52.5 seconds on yielding ground and carried 1lb more than Saint Felicien. He was raised 7lbs to 162 for the victory.

The horse who finished second to Espoir D'Allen in the Limestone Lad was 10-year-old Wicklow Brave - beaten more than 2l in receipt of 7lbs.

He was raised from 152 at Naas to 153 when he next appeared in the Coral Cup where he was beaten a short head.


So to wrap up, I'm still left with the impression that Saint Felicien is possibly better than he showed yesterday in a race where the 3 pace setters paid for going off too fast.

However, it was still a pretty decent performance on just his 3rd visit to a race-course - and when set against what Whisky Sour and Wicklow Brave went on to achieve at the Festival maybe he's still one for the short-list in the handicaps.

I imagine he'll be too highly rated for the Pipe.

Imo Saint Felicien doesn't look as though he needs further and while 5-year-old have a good strike rate in the County they have struggled to make an impact in the Coral Cup in recent years.

So there we go - ever the deluded optimist!!!

[Stormez]

Fascinating to see what they give him.

If you take a line from his seasonal debut 2l win over Slip of the Tongue off levels then Saint Felicien is 11lbs behind Teahupoo (149) and 12lbs behind Quilixios (150 which would put him on 137.

Yesterday's run would put Saint Felicien 8lbs behind Darasso (raised 5lbs to 155) and 4lbs ahead of Whisky Sour (145) so that would put him somewhere between 147 and 149.

So my guess would be that he might escape with an Irish rating of 147.

That alone would put him 10lbs higher than Saint Roi when he won the County - and any extra tax would make a tilt at the County extremely difficult imo.

But Gordon is nothing if not resourceful and I'd love to see him put Shane Fitzgerald up claiming 5lbs. Gordon's used him in recent months and he's a talented young jockey.

If that came to pass and Saint Felicien rocked up on 147 with Fitzgerald on board then I don't think he would be a forlorn hope.

I was very disappointed with SF's performance at the time but I've since had second thoughts - maybe trying to find solace where none exists!!!

But the case for cautious optimism is this:

Felix Desjy set an absolutely brutal pace with Saint Felicien and Whisky Sour laying up about 4 lengths adrift and Darasso towards the back.

I'm just wondering if the race kind of fell apart entering the home straight - because they went too fast - enabling Darasso to pick them all off.

If you accept that notion, then Saint Felicien did pretty well to plug on and beat Whisky Sour.



The time of the race was 3m 53.5secs on good to yielding (yielding in places). The going was later changed to yielding after race 7.

Champion Green won the maiden 30 minutes later in 4m 6.8secs - more than 11 seconds slower and carrying 2lbs more than SF.

Man O Work won division two of the maiden in 4 mins 3.6secs carrying 5lbs less than SF - so again the race was more than 10 seconds slower than Darasso's time.

120-rated Bigz Belief won the handicap hurdle in 4mins 17.1secs - carrying 4lbs more than SF but more than 23 seconds slower than Darasso.


It's also worth bearing in mind that Saint Felicien was having only his third start over hurdles and gave 4lbs and a beating to Whisky Sour who finished 4th in the 2019 County Hurdle off 144 and 3rd in the 2018 edition off 141.

And in case anyone's saying Whisky Sour is not the same horse now - I'm sorry but he has posted career best hurdling rprs in his last two runs, the best being at Fairyhouse just 2 months ago.

So by that reckoning Saint Felicien would have to come into the reckoning for the County. Whisky Sour went off 5-1 fav in 2019 and 7-1 in 2018.



I also compared yesterday's times with the one posted by Espoir Allen in the Limestone Lad before he went on to win the Champion Hurdle.

Espoir D'Allen clocked 3mins 52.5 seconds on yielding ground and carried 1lb more than Saint Felicien. He was raised 7lbs to 162 for the victory.

The horse who finished second to Espoir D'Allen in the Limestone Lad was 10-year-old Wicklow Brave - beaten more than 2l in receipt of 7lbs.

He was raised from 152 at Naas to 153 when he next appeared in the Coral Cup where he was beaten a short head.


So to wrap up, I'm still left with the impression that Saint Felicien is possibly better than he showed yesterday in a race where the 3 pace setters paid for going off too fast.

However, it was still a pretty decent performance on just his 3rd visit to a race-course - and when set against what Whisky Sour and Wicklow Brave went on to achieve at the Festival maybe he's still one for the short-list in the handicaps.

I imagine he'll be too highly rated for the Pipe.

Imo Saint Felicien doesn't look as though he needs further and while 5-year-old have a good strike rate in the County they have struggled to make an impact in the Coral Cup in recent years.

So there we go - ever the deluded optimist!!!

I think that’s a fair case, and he must have been showing them something to make them think he may be Champion Hurdle class.

It’s said every year that you need a graded horse to win a handicap, and if he is a borderline Grade 1 horse in their eyes then a mark in the high 140’s shouldn’t be enough to stop him.

Unless Willie also has a grade 1 horse in there off 135!!!!

[Milbear0]

Like State Man.

[Stormez]

Like State Man.

Yeah will probably happen now as I spent too long mulling over whether to back him for a handicap & missed all the juicy prices!

[Kevloaf]

Like State Man.

I reckon I've now backed State Man for more races at this festival than Vroum Vroum Mag has had entries in it.

[Milbear0]

I reckon I've now backed State Man for more races at this festival than Vroum Vroum Mag has had entries in it.

Looks to my eye like he would enjoy the banks….

[Splinterboy82]

I really like the look of Top Bandit in this. When Elliott went hcap fishing a few wks back he got a UK mark of 139 which would be lovely. Love the earlier season Cheltenham form. However, he’s entered in the big 2m hcap at the DRF this weekend (formerly the Pierse hurdle that has chucked up plenty of nice ones) & my fear is if he wins that as I’d expect, the UK assessor will take the opportunity to pop him up a fair bit….especially if Jetoile then runs well in the Betfair next weekend. Gone in nrnb - hope they swerve this weekend…

[RoadToCheltenham]

Saint Felicien given 146 at Musselburgh this weekend...

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/16/musselburgh/2022-02-05/802220/