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Originally posted by FinalFurlong91
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He's been poor this festival on the whole so he's due a good ride. He'll be hoping for a good pace to try and settle her. I've been dismissive of her for this race but got to respect Paul's choice. -
County Hurdle – 20-Year Trends Analysis
Age Trends: The County Hurdle strongly favors younger hurdlers. Nine of the last 12 winners were age 5 or 6
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. In fact, no seven-year-old has won this race since 2003
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, and horses older than 8 are very rare winners. (Notably, an 8-year-old can prevail occasionally – four wins in the last 20 renewals – but 5–6yo runners form the majority of recent winners.) All recent winners have also been geldings; no mare has taken the County in the past 12 years
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Weight Carried: Winners tend to carry a relatively light weight. 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11 st 1 lb (155 lb) or less
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. High-weighted horses have a poor record – since 1960 only one top-weight has won (Arctic Fire in 2017)
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. In practice, that means the victor often carries around 10–something stone. Horses shouldering near top-weight (11 st 8 lb–12 st) face a historical disadvantage.
Official Rating (OR): A narrow ratings band has been a key trend. Nearly all recent winners were rated in the 130s
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. In fact, 15 of the last 19 winners had an official rating between roughly 130–139
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. Only a few exceptional cases have won from a mark above 150 or below 130 in the past two decades. This suggests the “sweet spot” for a County Hurdle winner is a mid-130s rating – good enough to get into the race, but not so high as to be burdened with extreme weight.
Last Race Performance: Contrary to what one might expect in a handicap, coming off a win is not a prerequisite. Only about 25% of recent winners won their previous race (3 of the last 12)
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, meaning the majority were beaten last time out. However, most did show some positive form: about two-thirds finished in the top 3 on their latest start
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. Additionally, having a reasonably recent run is beneficial – roughly 75% ran within the last 80 days before Cheltenham
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. A long absence is usually a negative. The ideal profile is a horse that ran in the past 1–3 months and put in a solid effort (e.g. placed), without necessarily having won.
Trainer & Jockey Stats: This race has been dominated by a few yards. Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have trained 9 of the last 10 winners
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. Mullins alone accounts for a total of seven County Hurdle wins to date
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, while Dan Skelton has remarkably won 4 of the last 9 renewals
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. Paul Nicholls also won this race four times (though his last was in 2014)
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. In contrast, some high-profile trainers have struggled – for example, Nicky Henderson and Gordon Elliott have had no success in this race in recent times despite many runners
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. Jockey-wise, success follows the trainers: Willie Mullins’ stable jockey Paul Townend has multiple wins (including 2022 and 2024), and Dan Skelton’s team has been ridden to victory by Harry Skelton and Bridget Andrews (each with two wins in the last decade). Ruby Walsh was the leading jockey historically with 4 wins
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, but in the last few years the spoils are typically going to riders from the Mullins and Skelton yards.
Country of Breeding: There isn’t an extreme bias here, though it’s noteworthy that most winners are not British-bred. In the last 12 editions, 4 winners were Irish-bred and 4 French-bred, with 3 British-bred and 1 German
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. Irish and French horses have had a slight edge, reflecting the strength of Irish-trained contenders and French jumping bloodlines in this race. This year’s field reflects that mix, with a majority of runners bred in Ireland or France. It’s a plus for a horse to be FR or IRE bred (recent winners like State Man, Saint Roi, and Absurde were French-bred, while others like Belfast Banter and Ch’tibello were Irish-bred), though British-breds can certainly win if they fit the other patterns.
Market Position: The County Hurdle is famously kind to outsiders. Only 2 of the last 18 favourites have won
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, and winners often start at double-figure odds. In fact, 10 of the last 12 winners returned an SP between 10/1 and 33/1
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. It is common to see surprise results – e.g. 33/1 winners in 2021 and 2023. Being a short-priced favorite has not been an advantage; a prominent position in the betting market is no guarantee in this ultra-competitive handicap. The trend suggests looking beyond the first few in the betting. A well-handicapped “dark horse” at a value price often emerges victorious in the County.
Other Notable Factors: Previous course experience can help. Seven of the last 11 winners had a previous Cheltenham victory
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, and several had placed at a Festival before. Proven ability to handle the unique demands of Cheltenham’s track and the big-field hustle is a positive. Indeed, last year’s winner Absurde had placed at Royal Ascot and then won the race after a prior Cheltenham run, and 2022’s State Man came off a Grade 1 placing. That said, previous Festival winners are relatively rare in handicaps, so this trend mainly flags horses that have at least shown aptitude at the course. Another point: all of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous hurdle runs and most had a win that season
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, so experience and current form matter (novices with very few runs were once unlikely – though State Man in 2022 did buck that trend after a rule change, as he had only 2 runs prior
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). Finally, almost every recent winner raced without headgear – 10 of the last 12 wore no headgear (blinkers/cheekpieces)
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, hinting that horses needing equipment might not be ideal in this frenetic race.
Trends Match – 2025 County Hurdle Runners
Using the above trends profile of a typical County Hurdle winner, we assess this year’s declared runners (tomorrow’s race) against those criteria. Key trends applied are: Age 5-6, carrying 11‑1 or less, OR in the 130s, placed in last race, trained by Mullins/Skelton, previous Cheltenham win, and being a gelding. The table below shows how many of these trends each runner meets:(Key: OR = official rating; weight is given in stone-pounds. “Last run placed” means finished 1st–3rd last time out.)Valgrand (6yo, OR 134, 10-10, D. Skelton) – meets age, weight, OR, trainer, Cheltenham win, gelding 6 Cracking Rhapsody (6yo, OR 132, 10-13, E. Whillans) – meets age, weight, OR, last run placed, gelding 5 Lark In The Mornin (5yo, OR 132, 10-8, J. O’Brien) – meets age, weight, OR, Cheltenham win, gelding 5 McLaurey (6yo, OR 136, 10-12, E. Mullins) – meets age, weight, OR, last run placed, gelding 5 Daddy Long Legs (6yo, OR 152, 12-0, W. Mullins) – meets age, last run placed, trainer, gelding 4 Ethical Diamond (5yo, OR 143, 11-5, W. Mullins) – meets age, last run placed, trainer, gelding 4 Kargese (5yo, OR 141, 11-3, W. Mullins) – meets age, OR, last run placed, trainer (✘ note: mare, not gelding) 4 Absurde (7yo, OR 146, 11-8, W. Mullins) – meets trainer, Cheltenham win, gelding 3 Irish Panther (8yo, OR 128, 10-4, E. Harty) – meets weight, last run placed, gelding 3 Our Champ (7yo, OR 135, 10-11, C. Gordon) – meets weight, OR, gelding 3 Pinot Gris (5yo, OR 143, 11-5, G. Cromwell) – meets age, last run placed, gelding 3 Spirit d’Aunou (6yo, OR 127, 10-3, G. Moore) – meets age, weight, gelding 3 Norman Fletcher (6yo, OR 127, 10-3, N. Twiston-Davies) – meets age, weight, gelding 3 Hansard (7yo, OR 142, 11-4, G. Moore) – meets last run placed, gelding 2 Ndaawi (5yo, OR 140, 11-2, G. Elliott) – meets age, gelding 2 Fils d’Oudairies (10yo, OR 145, 11-7, G. Elliott) – meets gelding only 1
Top Trend Matches: Valgrand emerges as the leading trends pick, fitting 6 of the key criteria. This 6-year-old is in the ideal age range, carries a low weight off a mid-130s mark, and crucially represents Dan Skelton (who has a superb County Hurdle record). He also has winning form at Cheltenham (a Grade 2 in October) – ticking a lot of boxes. Close behind on 5 trends are Cracking Rhapsody, Lark In The Mornin, and McLaurey. Cracking Rhapsody (6yo) and Lark In The Mornin (5yo) both have nice low weights and ratings in the 130s; the latter was a Festival winner here last year (Fred Winter), which bodes well. McLaurey is another 6yo with a handy weight and recent good form. All of these match the typical profile of past winners quite well.
Notable Others: Daddy Long Legs and Ethical Diamond score 4 trends each – they have the right age and top connections (Willie Mullins trains both), though each carries a bit more weight than ideal and are rated in the 140s (slightly above the most common range). Kargese also hits 4 trends; she’s a 5-year-old from Mullins’ yard with strong form, but one trend against her is that no mare has won this race in recent memory
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. Last year’s winner Absurde rates only 3 on our trends (he’s 7 now and has a high rating/weight), suggesting a repeat victory would defy several patterns – notably, back-to-back winners are extremely rare here (no horse has ever won this race twice). Many others in the field land around 2–3 trend matches, which is not unexpected for such an open handicap.
It’s worth remembering that the County Hurdle often throws up an unconventional winner, so trends are guidelines rather than guarantees. However, horses that align with multiple key trends – particularly being age 5-6, lightly weighted in the 130s, and from a top Festival yard – have a strong profile. Based on the analysis above, Valgrand and the other trend-toppers bring a lot of the right credentials into tomorrow’s race
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. The final outcome can always buck the trends, but historically those with the highest trend “scores” have had an excellent chance in the County Hurdle.
As with the martin pipe thread, what chatgpt deep research mode thinks about the countyComment
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Been trying to look beyond the obvious top 5 in the market in this for a bit of interest, and came down on Irish Panther.
Has improved from run to run this season for the Harty’s, and think there still more to come. He’s weighted nicely with Mclaurey on their run at the DRF, for all Mclaurey won it well.
It’s a pretty flimsy case, but don’t mind finding out at 20/1.Comment
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Balls deep on KARGESE . Will make or break my festivalComment
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Thats more like it.
Paul townend winning the county on a 5yo
fair play ff91 you called that straight awayComment
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Hate to say i told you so
But I told you soComment
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When I hear that phrase, it always reminds me of Bobby Heenan and Mr Perfect after Ric Flair won the Royal RumbleOriginally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
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WooooooooOriginally posted by That Horse View Post
When I hear that phrase, it always reminds me of Bobby Heenan and Mr Perfect after Ric Flair won the Royal Rumble
Was basically my reaction as she came there on the houdini and nothing was running on
I did have to stop myself after johnnwho yesterday though
My thoughts quickly became wait until this one crosses the line you pratComment
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Just cheered on Kargese and found out I had backed for the Coral Cup
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Well done guys. Settled off an even pace and could call her the winner a fair way out.Comment
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Well I was right about him reversing form with MclaureyOriginally posted by Stormez View Post
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