The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Lobos]

You can pick and choose which ones suit, that's for sure, some I look into a bit deeper though, for example Paul Nicholls runners, what prices were they, were they well fancied, why didn't they run their race etc... Just depends how much you can be bothered to go into the research, as it happens it's just something I enjoy. I can imagine it being a ball ache for those that view it as information overload and unnecessary.

Complete ball ache yeah. I just let others do it for me and then still back the wrong ones....

[ComplyOrDie]

Complete ball ache yeah. I just let others do it for me and then still back the wrong ones....

That's absolutely fine, no one is forced into these trends/stats

[TigerRolllllll]

Need to be careful ruling out all the Irish

Historically they have not targeted the race as much as Kim Muir give them advantage with availability of good amateur riders

Our Naiad was Irish last year in this, so we were not ruling them all out

I haven't looked through all runners yet, but possible this trend could change

[Lobos]

Ultima Chase


❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a highest class run of Class 1 (G3), when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-77.

Does this one knock out a few ??

[Lobos]

And another.....

✅ The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had recorded 1 career fall.

Get your teeth into those two COD

[ComplyOrDie]

And another.....

✅ The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had recorded 1 career fall.

Get your teeth into those two COD

I pick and choose the trends to follow, reason being I saw one about the colour of the bloody horse, which I find ridiculous. At least the RPR is what they've achieved on the track, albeit one or two peoples opinions (following a set out system).

[Lobos]

The Changing Man meets both those top stats......

[ComplyOrDie]

The Changing Man meets both those top stats......

Funnily enough, he's one I've backed this morning, along with Broadway Boy.

The Changing Man is one I believe Quevega mentioned some while back, but he won't care too much for the trends he meets, I'm sure!

[Istabraq]

Funnily enough, he's one I've backed this morning,

Do the form lines not send you all the way back to Victtorino ?
Or are you leaning because of the easier race ?

[TigerRolllllll]

Think a big trend this race is previous Cheltenham form (not necessarily festival)

I did Broadway Boy too, but less sure on Changing Man for this reason

[SeanRock]

King Turgeon is one that stood out to me of the the GB lot before the Irish get their marks. He meets a lot of trends, has course form, stays well & likes being up with the pace in his races.

Pipe knows what it takes to win the race & the 25/1 available with WH isn’t too bad a price either.

He had a busy start to the season winning two on the bounce in the lead up to his big Cheltenham win. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear they took the foot off the gas with his training after that. With a view to freshening him up for this.

[ComplyOrDie]

Do the form lines not send you all the way back to Victtorino ?
Or are you leaning because of the easier race ?

1lb better off with Victtorino for a 3/4 length defeat, albeit probably would have been further the further they had gone, so Cheltenham may see a bigger gap. Strong form line for me though, both horses done little wrong since. Still on the Victtorino train, just annoyed they ran him at Ascot, in what was a tough race too. The Changing Man had a 3m race, but won as he liked, probably done harder work at home. It was a no contest once Jingko unseated.

[ComplyOrDie]

King Turgeon is one that stood out to me of the the GB lot before the Irish get their marks. He meets a lot of trends, has course form, stays well & likes being up with the pace in his races.

Pipe knows what it takes to win the race & the 25/1 available with WH isn’t too bad a price either.

He had a busy start to the season winning two on the bounce in the lead up to his big Cheltenham win. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear they took the foot off the gas with his training after that. With a view to freshening him up for this.

Yep, he's certainly been talked about plenty on the 'Under The Radar Thread' previously. His PU at Musselburgh was far from ideal, but they rode him further back, which he just doesn't like, not to mention he was just never travelling (possibly just throwing his toys out the pram having been held up). He also had to carry 12st over a near 4m trip, it was never going to happen!

[Lobos]

Do the form lines not send you all the way back to Victtorino ?
Or are you leaning because of the easier race ?

Victtorino not fallen so he's out....

[SeanRock]

Yep, he's certainly been talked about plenty on the 'Under The Radar Thread' previously. His PU at Musselburgh was far from ideal, but they rode him further back, which he just doesn't like, not to mention he was just never travelling (possibly just throwing his toys out the pram having been held up). He also had to carry 12st over a near 4m trip, it was never going to happen!

As you say the way he was ridden at Musselburgh tells you they weren’t looking to be competitive. He’s at his best ridden prominently.

He was very busy early in the season so would have been due a few easy weeks at some stage in the new year which could excuse his last run for me too.