The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Studfarm254]

Ginnys Destiny….. thread complete!

[TigerRolllllll]

Ginnys Destiny….. thread complete!

Not sure if he goes here or the Plate....tho Nicholls has said he thinks he will be good at 3m

Dropped to a nice mark on a course he loves & 25s is too big

[Wayward Lad]

Not sure if he goes here or the Plate....tho Nicholls has said he thinks he will be good at 3m

Dropped to a nice mark on a course he loves & 25s is too big

Ginnys seems to have regressed in his first season out of novice company (down 9lbs on OR to last year) whereas a horse he appeared closely matched with last year in comparison,Grey Dawning, has improved (up 4lbs for one good 2nd in the CH and then pulled up in the KG)

We were told Ginnys was a ‘proper horse’ by Nichols and that he would get 3m, yet this year he has run poorly. Early doors it was mentioned he took a lot to get fit, but his runs haven’t given any confidence that he is the same horse as last year, let alone may step forward after his novice chasing year.

[DenmanSacre]

I'd say the 2 and a half mile novices from last year were a poor bunch. Ginny's Destiny has been poor this year, Grey Dawning finished 2nd in the Betfair Chase but the form from that race is awful. It looked ropey as soon as Il Etait Temps smashed them at Aintree.

Ginny's Destiny fails the important 3m RPR stat for the Ultima as well.

[Lobos]

I'd say the 2 and a half mile novices from last year were a poor bunch. Ginny's Destiny has been poor this year, Grey Dawning finished 2nd in the Betfair Chase but the form from that race is awful. It looked ropey as soon as Il Etait Temps smashed them at Aintree.

Ginny's Destiny fails the important 3m RPR stat for the Ultima as well.

I keep hearing about the important 3m RPR stat not being hit..............has any horse entered actually met it ??

[TigerRolllllll]

Ginnys seems to have regressed in his first season out of novice company (down 9lbs on OR to last year) whereas a horse he appeared closely matched with last year in comparison,Grey Dawning, has improved (up 4lbs for one good 2nd in the CH and then pulled up in the KG)

We were told Ginnys was a ‘proper horse’ by Nichols and that he would get 3m, yet this year he has run poorly. Early doors it was mentioned he took a lot to get fit, but his runs haven’t given any confidence that he is the same horse as last year, let alone may step forward after his novice chasing year.

Agree - wouldn’t back if was 10-1, but at 25s there is a chance he is thrown in & does like Chelt

Nicholls form been all over place this season, so hard to know

[ComplyOrDie]

I keep hearing about the important 3m RPR stat not being hit..............has any horse entered actually met it ??

Loads......

[DenmanSacre]

I keep hearing about the important 3m RPR stat not being hit..............has any horse entered actually met it ??

The Changing Man.
Johnnywho (though looks an error seeing as he was smashed in his 3m run)
Lowry's Bar
The Short Go
Broadway Boy
Herakles Westwood
Victorrino

Loads more

[Lobos]

Loads......

AHH right, just a way of putting a line through a few then.

[Quevega]

AHH right, just a way of putting a line through a few then.

It's like putting a line through geldings for the mares hurdle.

[Speedy17]

A fairly uninspiring group of entries, only 2 I really like are Lowry's Bar & Henry's Friend... Suppose it means I won't waste too much money firing loads of darts at it.

[Lobos]

It's like putting a line through geldings for the mares hurdle.

,.....and 5yo for the Arkle......and Challow winners for the Turners.......and Willies horses for the Handicap Chases..........and horses trying to regain the Champion Hurdle...........

If only it were that simple

[ComplyOrDie]

,.....and 5yo for the Arkle......and Challow winners for the Turners.......and Willies horses for the Handicap Chases..........and horses trying to retain the Champion Hurdle...........

If only it were that simple

Exactly, it's one trend that at present, sticks well. It will be used by many, including me, until I see it broken. It's not the only one I use, nor are trends the only angles I use to bet in a race, but it helps dwindle the field down a little, albeit most of which I wouldn't ordinarily fancy anyway, so you could argue it's adding a level of confirmation bias to my opinions.

[Lobos]

Exactly, it's one trend that at present, sticks well. It will be used by many, including me, until I see it broken. It's not the only one I use, nor are trends the only angles I use to bet in a race, but it helps dwindle the field down a little, albeit most of which I wouldn't ordinarily fancy anyway, so you could argue it's adding a level of confirmation bias to my opinions.

Can also put a line through all the Irish in the race and any Paul Nicholls horses. That alone takes out nearly a third of the field.

[ComplyOrDie]

Can also put a line through all the Irish in the race and any Paul Nicholls horses. That alone takes out nearly a third of the field.

You can pick and choose which ones suit, that's for sure, some I look into a bit deeper though, for example Paul Nicholls runners, what prices were they, were they well fancied, why didn't they run their race etc... Just depends how much you can be bothered to go into the research, as it happens it's just something I enjoy. I can imagine it being a ball ache for those that view it as information overload and unnecessary.