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He ran very well in the Ultima Handicap Chase last season and we’re aiming him at it again this season. He hit the front a mile too soon and I thought he was a bit unlucky. He had a perfect preparation when winning a charity race at Punchestown last week.
I've spent my morning working through the data looking at historical trends (hope my boss isn't lurking on here) and wanted to put my conclusions on record.
Trends measured:
Best chase RPR over 3m+ (9/10)
Won chase 3m+ (9/10)
Won on a galloping track (10/10)
Run on old course before, or won on the new course (10/10)
Chase OR between 139-151 (9/10)
Un Temps Pour Tout was the exception on his first win, however had won 3m+ over hurdles, when he also had his best overall RPR, which has also been considered in my analysis. The chase OR exception was his second win.
I appreciate data-led isn't foolproof but I love data and am determined to use it to assist my Cheltenham bets. And I'm sure the analysis can be pulled apart, I'm mainly interested this year in seeing how data-led results fare.
The shortlist from the above are:
Stumptown
Twig
Annual Invictus
Shan Blue
Cloudy Glen
Run Wild Fred
Lord Du Mesnil
I've eliminated the latter 4 due to their best RPR's being over 2 years ago, whereas the last 10/10 winners had their highest RPR in the current or previous seasons.
So my shortlist based solely on data are Stumptown, Twig and Annual Invictus, available at 8,14 and 16 respectively on 365 NRNB.
I've eliminated the latter 4 due to their best RPR's being over 2 years ago, whereas the last 10/10 winners had their highest RPR in the current or previous seasons.
So my shortlist based solely on data are Stumptown, Twig and Annual Invictus, available at 8,14 and 16 respectively on 365 NRNB.
Just for interest of course
Gavin Cromwell picked out Stumptown as his best bet of the Tuesday prior to weights release. He was also very keen on Percival Legallois in The Kim Muir.
I've spent my morning working through the data looking at historical trends (hope my boss isn't lurking on here) and wanted to put my conclusions on record.
Trends measured:
Best chase RPR over 3m+ (9/10)
Won chase 3m+ (9/10)
Won on a galloping track (10/10)
Run on old course before, or won on the new course (10/10)
Chase OR between 139-151 (9/10)
Un Temps Pour Tout was the exception on his first win, however had won 3m+ over hurdles, when he also had his best overall RPR, which has also been considered in my analysis. The chase OR exception was his second win.
I appreciate data-led isn't foolproof but I love data and am determined to use it to assist my Cheltenham bets. And I'm sure the analysis can be pulled apart, I'm mainly interested this year in seeing how data-led results fare.
The shortlist from the above are:
Stumptown
Twig
Annual Invictus
Shan Blue
Cloudy Glen
Run Wild Fred
Lord Du Mesnil
I've eliminated the latter 4 due to their best RPR's being over 2 years ago, whereas the last 10/10 winners had their highest RPR in the current or previous seasons.
So my shortlist based solely on data are Stumptown, Twig and Annual Invictus, available at 8,14 and 16 respectively on 365 NRNB.
Just for interest of course
Very good!
Just an update on the odds NRNB
10/1 Stumptown
18/1 Twig
20/1 Annual Invictus
25/1 Shan Blue
40/1 Cloudy Glen
33/1 Run WIld Fred
40/1 Lord Du Mesnil
I'd expect similar prices and BOG nearer the time on some of them, but a very good shortlist.
Obviously can see Stumptown going off single figures
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) - was just a cheeky wee dig from a Scotsman at Lobos's reference to looking at "the English" 
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