The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Craigy14]

Kim Baileys form is awful at the minute….so I’ve scored him right off.

Oscar Elite and need to find another to follow the naiad home

[Hoofit]

Jonjo jr sounded quietly confident about Monbeg on the radio this morning, I didn't quite catch what he said clearly.

He either said it was his best chance of the day or best chance of the week, I just caught the tail end of it.

[charlie]

Jonjo jr sounded quietly confident about Monbeg on the radio this morning, I didn't quite catch what he said clearly.

He either said it was his best chance of the day or best chance of the week, I just caught the tail end of it.

Lack of cheltenham experience and big field experience would be a worry.

[Saxon Warrior]

Now we have Handicap Entries out, I am giving each of the 9 Handicap Threads a Bump

Check out Post 1, Page 1 on each Handicap Thread

Has the last 10 year stats for

* winners,
* placed horses,
* ratings of all of those, and
* lowest rating to get in each race

Good luck

PS: If you have any key stats you want me to add to Post 1 in the Handicaps, post on the thread, and I will copy them over to Post 1

[Saxon Warrior]

Also added to Page 1 Post 1

76 entries in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:

Adamantly Chosen (IRE)
Ain't That A Shame (IRE)
Al Dancer (FR)
Amirite (IRE)
Annual Invictus (IRE)
Apple Away (IRE)
Autonomous Cloud (IRE)
Aye Right (IRE)
Back On The Lash
Bowtogreatness (IRE)
Bronn (IRE)
Busselton (FR)
Castle Robin (IRE)
Cepage (FR)
Chambard (FR)
Chavez (IRE)
Chianti Classico (IRE)
City Chief (IRE)
Classic Getaway (IRE)
Cloudy Glen (IRE)
Cool Survivor (IRE)
Corach Rambler (IRE)
Crebilly (IRE)
Demnat (FR)
Diol Ker (FR)
Dom of Mary (FR)
Eklat de Rire (FR)
Eldorado Allen (FR)
Embittered (IRE)
Empire Steel (IRE)
Excello (FR)
Fakir d'Alene (FR)
Famous Bridge (IRE)
Farceur du Large (FR)
Favori de Champdou (FR)
Firm Footings (IRE)
Flegmatik (FR)
Found On (IRE)
Frontal Assault (IRE)
Gevrey (FR)
Giovinco (IRE)
Git Maker (FR)
Glengouly (FR)
Grozni (FR)
Highland Hunter (IRE)
Inothewayurthinkin (IRE)
Iron Bridge (IRE)
Jamaico (FR)
James du Berlais (FR)
Java Point (IRE)
Jungle Boogie (IRE)
Kitty's Light
Le Milos
Life In The Park (IRE)
Lord du Mesnil (FR)
Macs Charm (IRE)
Meetingofthewaters (IRE)
Minella Cocooner (IRE)
Minella Crooner (IRE)
Monbeg Genius (IRE)
Ontheropes (IRE)
Rapper
Risk And Roll (FR)
Rock My Way (IRE)
Run Wild Fred (IRE)
Shakem Up'arry (IRE)
Shan Blue (IRE)
Stumptown (IRE)
The Big Breakaway (IRE)
The Goffer (IRE)
Theatre Man (IRE)
Trelawne
Twig
Undersupervision (IRE)
Victtorino (FR)
Weveallbeencaught (IRE)

[Eggs]

…..2023 trend analysis but I’d imagine still useful reference material;

THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Were trained in Britain.
- Had won no more than 4 chases, the majority winning 1 or 2.
- Had tasted victory over at least 3m (fences or hurdles).
- Had scored on a galloping track.
- Had at least 4 starts in the last 12 months.
- Had run at Chelt before (7 over fences) with 6 winning.


9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had a least 5 starts over fences (the exception being Un Temps Pour Tout who had 3).
- Taken part in at least 1 H’cap Chase. 3 of the last 4 had won more than 1.
- Finished in the first 3 in one of their last 3 starts.
- Last run no more than 59 days ago (the exception being Beware the Bear).
- Did not carry top weight. Finishing positions of the last 10 top weights, 0443P3107FP.

KEY TRIALS;

PP Chase at Leop thrown up 2 placed horses. Beware the Bear used Lad Trophy. in 2022 the 1st 4 were Le Milos, Remastered, Gericault & Corach, the 3rd & 4th filling the top 2 spots in last years Ultima. Corach & Gericault also ran in Classic Chase at Warwick, which 2020 winner The Conditional was also placed in (Iwilldoit, Mr Incredible, Notachance, Guetapan Collinges all prominent this year).

The Cleeve Hurdle produced 2 winners and 2 placed in last 10 years.

A positive to have run in this race before.

TRAINER TRENDS;

- Last 16 winners trained in England.
- 3 winners & 6 places each, D Pipe & JJ O’Neill are top. Hendo 2 winners & 9 places over 22 years.
- V Williams, Nicholls & NTD have poor records.

JOCKEY TRENDS;

- T Scudamore most successful with 3 wins & 5 places.
- Richie McClernon 2 winners & 3 places from 7 rides.

[Saxon Warrior]

Trends added to Page 1 Post 1 Eggs

[Lobos]

18 seasons ago since the last Irish trained winner of this race. Mental stat. Start looking at the English.

[Muswell]

What a winner though ‘from the clouds’

https://youtu.be/u_LA1lGWt4w

[ComplyOrDie]

18 seasons ago since the last Irish trained winner of this race. Mental stat. Start looking at the English.

Look back at last seasons race wondering how they didn't win it with a horse rated 150, now rated 170

[Quevega]

Fairly decent chance Meetingofthewaters runs here as he needs a run to qualify for National and he's been talked up by most of the Mullins stable for that in recent days.
They must think he's well handicapped still.

Obviously entered all over the shop and could even be one for the BANC if Townend wants a go on him before riding in the big one.
I doubt Townend would ride in the Ultima. More likely Patrick.

He's entered in Plate also and NH chase of course (think he's first reserve for that behind Embassy), and too high for the Muir.

[Lobos]

Only 2/3 Irish winners since 66 as far as I can make out. That's just plain stupid.

The Goffer needs to be a mahoosive stat breaker !!!

[Lostinleith]

18 seasons ago since the last Irish trained winner of this race. Mental stat. Start looking at the English.

Is there no hope for the Scots or the Welsh

[Lobos]

Is there no hope for the Scots or the Welsh

[That Horse]

Is there no hope for the Scots or the Welsh

Has there not been a Scottish winner the last two years in Corach Rambler?