The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Kevloaf]

If fastorslow goes this way he possibly goes off favorite going by the money that’s come for him, that alone would make it a risky bet at those odds.

True

Don't rate The Goffer really but I do like Fastorslow a lot.

[Madmoose]

Irish wont win it yet again so forget him, Corach or Nassalam will win this

[charlie]

After having not been sold on him initially, I keep coming back to Our Power. This will be his 4th consecutive festival and he was 5th in this race last year. He jumped the 3rd last cruising and I think he paid the price of having had a busy season. I could be wrong, but racing 5 times in 108 days as a novice pre a big festival is a very tough ask, and I thought he did well all things considered. He's come back this season and is 2/2 over 3m, winning the London Gold Cup and the Coral Trophy. He's been campaigned far more sparingly and I think his course and festival experience, form and strong staying ability leave him as a great EW bet at 14/1, especially with additional places. I think he's a better, stronger horse this year. If he turns in this year the same way he did last, I think he'll finish powerfully up the hill.

[Middle_Of_March]

Have of course backed Nassalam like everyone else but my first bet asides from him having gone through the entries tonight is Our Power. I really like him actually.

Only twice gone 3 miles, one of which was this race last year when placing. The other was at Aintree when winning. He’s been given an entry for Saturday for his first start of the season which will surely be a pipe opener with bigger targets to come, this race being one of them I’d have thought. If you watch back his run in this last year, he’s four wide all the way round, travels all over them and jumps the second last going as well as anyone. In a few strides he goes from cruising to 4 lengths back and Charlie Deutch seems to ease off a bit as they turn for home. It seems to me as though he thinks the horse just doesn’t stay the trip. He almost completely stands up in the irons as he gets to the last and you’d say he is going to finish 10th. Surprisingly though again the horse runs on and actually goes from about 8th into 5th and proved on his first try at the trip that he does stay. In fact considering how wide he went all the way round, to stay on like that was a cracking run up the hill. Next time out he goes to Ascot and is ridden with full confidence this time by Deutsch that he will get the trip and stays on takingly to win the London gold Cup in front of Danny Kirwan and Tea Clipper. He really picks up between the last two fences and pulls away to win by a couple of lengths.

As well as knowing he now stays the trip and will surely be ridden with more confidence this time round, he’s a horse who is decent fresh but is even better on his second starts of the season or on his second run after a layoff. His record on his second start after 50 plus days off reads 113P1. He’s seemingly been held back until he gets his favoured good/good to soft ground with a spring campaign likely the plan all along. I expect him to run ok enough again in the Kempton race Saturday (3rd of 14 last year) but with one eye firmly on the Ultima. Whereas last year that run and Cheltenham were both midway through his season, I much prefer this years way of going about things where he will be fresh for both runs as his first and second start of the season.

At 20/1 NRNB, I’ve seen far worse each way bets. I really like him if it’s good to soft ground now we (and more importantly Deutch) know he stays every yard of the 3m trip.

Now he’s won since this post, I’m not entirely sure how I feel. I’m still very confident that he goes close but I’d have loved him to have finished 3rd/4th. We know he runs his best race second time out and the last two runs (the only two where his 3m stamina was known at that point) have been his best ever on the ratings.

He just has to go very very close doesn’t he?

[Middle_Of_March]

After having not been sold on him initially, I keep coming back to Our Power. This will be his 4th consecutive festival and he was 5th in this race last year. He jumped the 3rd last cruising and I think he paid the price of having had a busy season. I could be wrong, but racing 5 times in 108 days as a novice pre a big festival is a very tough ask, and I thought he did well all things considered. He's come back this season and is 2/2 over 3m, winning the London Gold Cup and the Coral Trophy. He's been campaigned far more sparingly and I think his course and festival experience, form and strong staying ability leave him as a great EW bet at 14/1, especially with additional places. I think he's a better, stronger horse this year. If he turns in this year the same way he did last, I think he'll finish powerfully up the hill.

I think the absolute main thing with him is that he goes well fresh. And goes better 2nd time out after a break (see my post above for that). Which is what he gets here. To me it looks something they gave some thought to but that he’s run better at Kempton than perhaps they expected.

He clearly stayed the trip last year but at the second last Deutch seemed to ease off as if he wasn’t going to see it out, only to have the horse find plenty up the hill for the placings. Now he stays for sure, he’s won both 3m starts since then, comes into this at his peak and there’s plenty of reason to expect a personal best incoming. I really liked the 20s before his win last time. I still like the 14s now. He’s almost definitely going to be my biggest handicap bet of the week by the time the racing gets underway.

[EnvoiAlien]

Fanion d'Estruval (FR)		8	12 0	Venetia Williams	Mr David Wilson
	Adamantly Chosen (IRE)		6	11 12	W. P. Mullins Ireland	Watch This Space Syndicate
	Happygolucky (IRE)		9	11 11	Kim Bailey	Lady Dulverton
	Remastered		10	11 10	David Pipe	Brocade Racing
	I Am Maximus (FR)		7	11 10	W. P. Mullins Ireland	Mr Claudio Michael Grech
	The Big Breakaway (IRE)		8	11 10	Joe Tizzard	Eric Jones, Geoff Nicholas, John Romans
	Threeunderthrufive (IRE)		8	11 9	Paul Nicholls	McNeill Family	A. P. Heskin
	Fastorslow (FR)		7	11 9	Martin Brassil Ireland	Sean & Bernardine Mulryan
	The Goffer (IRE)		6	11 8	Gordon Elliott Ireland	Mr Allan Snow
	Tea Clipper (IRE)		8	11 6	Tom Lacey	Mr Jerry Hinds & Mr Ashley Head
	Our Power (IRE)		8	11 6	Sam Thomas	Walters Plant Hire & Potter Group
	Into Overdrive		8	11 6	Mark Walford	Mrs Wendy Hamilton
	Corach Rambler (IRE)		9	11 5	Lucinda Russell	The Ramblers
	Cloudy Glen (IRE)		10	11 4	Venetia Williams	Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings
	Nassalam (FR)		6	11 3	Gary Moore	John and Yvonne Stone
	Farinet (FR)		8	11 1	Venetia Williams	M Hammond, E Coombs & T Henriques
	Karl Philippe (FR)		8	11 1	Fergal O'Brien	C Coley, D Porter, H Redknapp, P Smith
	Death Duty (IRE)		12	11 0	Gordon Elliott Ireland	Gigginstown House Stud
	Top Ville Ben (IRE)		11	10 13	Philip Kirby	Harbour Rose Partnership
	Monbeg Genius (IRE)		7	10 13	Jonjo O'Neill	Barrowman Racing Limited
	Good Boy Bobby (IRE)		10	10 13	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede
	Fortescue		9	10 13	Henry Daly	Mrs L Nixon
	Oscar Elite (IRE)		8	10 12	Joe Tizzard	Mrs Mary-Ann Middleton
	Slipway (IRE)		8	10 12	Ben Pauling	Mrs S. N. J. Embiricos
	Folcano (FR)		8	10 11	Gordon Elliott Ireland	Bective Stud
	Lord Accord (IRE)		8	10 10	Neil Mulholland	Lynne & Angus Maclennan
	Punitive (IRE)		9	10 10	Gordon Elliott Ireland	Pioneer Racing
	Silver Hallmark		9	10 10	Fergal O'Brien	Mr & Mrs William Rucker
	Iceo Madrik (FR)		5	10 9	David Pipe	Prof. Caroline Tisdall
	Laskalin (FR)		8	10 8	Venetia Williams	David & Carol Shaw
	Born By The Sea (IRE)		9	10 8	Paul John Gilligan Ireland	Natalie Gilligan
	Fontaine Collonges (FR)		8	10 8	Venetia Williams	Mr P. Davies
	Harper's Brook (IRE)		7	10 7	Ben Pauling	The Megsons
	Fantastikas (FR)		8	10 5	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Imperial Racing Partnership
	The Wolf (FR)		9	10 3	Olly Murphy	McNeill Family & Stone Family
	Broken Halo		8	10 3	Paul Nicholls	Giraffa Racing - BH
	Glamorgan Duke (IRE)

[Lobos]

Lord Accord will deffo get in. Yeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaa

[Birds Nest]

Lord Accord will deffo get in. Yeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaa

Hey Lobos..did you do one of your" Lobos life changers" this year?

[Lobos]

Hey Lobos..did you do one of your" Lobos life changers" this year?

Not yet. Will wait until Cheltenham Monday and put one up then.

[Lobos]

Just watched last year's Ultima back. An inspired ride from Derek Fox but he was being pushed early on and not travelling and then picked up late on weaving through beaten horses and won going away. He'll be very lucky to get those sort of gaps again and the extra weight could also tell. I do think there are better favourites than him.

[Spectre]

I agree Lobos. Plus because of Frodon heading the weights off 164, he carried 10st 2lbs last year, so the combination of his feather weight and that they went too hard off the front meant everything was perfect for him.

This year he's up 6lbs (which he wouldn't have won off last year), he'll carry either 11-5 or 11-2, he lacks match sharpness, and it feels like a better and deeper race this time. Last season, apart from Noble Yeats who was getting a spin around for the National, it was a pretty uninspiring field too. I stand to be corrected, but I think from a field of 24 only 4 have won since, one of them being Noble Yeats, who wasn't trying, and Our Power and Oscar Elite who are also worse of at the weights now as a consequence. Although admittedly Oscar Elite still looks well treated. The ground will probably have gone for him though.

Of the others that might be a danger to the 'Naiad', the ground is going against Lord Accord, so the ones I'd be most worried about are Threeunderthrufive, Happygolucky, and Fastorslow, assuming he comes to this rather than the Plate, which the market suggests he will.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I agree Lobos. Plus because of Frodon heading the weights off 164, he carried 10st 2lbs last year, so the combination of his feather weight and that they went too hard off the front meant everything was perfect for him.

This year he's up 6lbs (which he wouldn't have won off last year), he'll carry either 11-5 or 11-2, he lacks match sharpness, and it feels like a better and deeper race this time. Last season, apart from Noble Yeats who was getting a spin around for the National, it was a pretty uninspiring field too. I stand to be corrected, but I think from a field of 24 only 4 have won since, one of them being Noble Yeats, who wasn't trying, and Our Power and Oscar Elite who are also worse of at the weights now as a consequence. Although admittedly Oscar Elite still looks well treated. The ground will probably have gone for him though.

Of the others that might be a danger to the 'Naiad', the ground is going against Lord Accord, so the ones I'd be most worried about are Threeunderthrufive, Happygolucky, and Fastorslow, assuming he comes to this rather than the Plate, which the market suggests he will.

I get the impression that the Grand National has been the target for CR all season and can see this race being a prep for that.

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree Lobos. Plus because of Frodon heading the weights off 164, he carried 10st 2lbs last year, so the combination of his feather weight and that they went too hard off the front meant everything was perfect for him.

I think the weight thing you could have said for about 90% of the field. Only 3 horses carried 11st or more, Frodon, Lostintranslation (11-3) & Does He Know (11-00) so I think the weight thing is irrelevent, it's not as if he was getting lumps from everything in the race, for example Oscar Elite only carried 10st and your 'reserve' Naiad, Tea Clipper 10-7. Thanks to Frodon they all pretty much had feather weights. As for going off too hard in front, it's Cheltenham, pretty much every race is run as such, and no guarantee he won't get it again.

This year he's up 6lbs (which he wouldn't have won off last year), he'll carry either 11-5 or 11-2, he lacks match sharpness, and it feels like a better and deeper race this time. Last season, apart from Noble Yeats who was getting a spin around for the National, it was a pretty uninspiring field too. I stand to be corrected, but I think from a field of 24 only 4 have won since, one of them being Noble Yeats, who wasn't trying, and Our Power and Oscar Elite who are also worse of at the weights now as a consequence. Although admittedly Oscar Elite still looks well treated. The ground will probably have gone for him though.

I completely agree with you regarding match sharpness, I was hoping he might prop his head up somewhere for a spin around, even over hurdles, but no such luck, so his level of fitness has to be taken on trust, and is my one concern, but the yard are in form for sure (5 winners in a row I think).

[ComplyOrDie]

I get the impression that the Grand National has been the target for CR all season and can see this race being a prep for that.

Given he hasn't been seen since November, I suspect this could be the case and they have stated he'd be aimed at the GN this season. I was hoping for a spin over obstacles prior to the Ultima, but it hasn't materialised and this is my one and only worry for him.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Given he hasn't been seen since November, I suspect this could be the case and they have stated he'd be aimed at the GN this season. I was hoping for a spin over obstacles prior to the Ultima, but it hasn't materialised and this is my one and only worry for him.

It's the one thing that has stopped me backing him heavily for this and I'll kick myself a little if he wins. I don't want him having a hard race here and throwing away his chance in the GN.