The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[ComplyOrDie]

nortonscoin200 I didn't mean Enigma, but now I can't even remember what I did mean

Yeah, I think I read your post, I usually read all diaries tbf

I had conversation with others, somewhere on the forum about him previously, as he was always touted as missing Cheltenham in favour of the National but that recently changed, as you note in your post.

I have him backed @ 40/1 TWAR really early on, when Hills were offering the double odds boosts, obviously restricted stakes but managed to get on a couple of times, with a view to him coming back to the Ultima, so I sure hope he turns up.

[nortonscoin200]

nortonscoin200 I didn't mean Enigma, but now I can't even remember what I did mean

Yeah, I think I read your post, I usually read all diaries tbf

I had conversation with others, somewhere on the forum about him previously, as he was always touted as missing Cheltenham in favour of the National but that recently changed, as you note in your post.

I have him backed @ 40/1 TWAR really early on, when Hills were offering the double odds boosts, obviously restricted stakes but managed to get on a couple of times, with a view to him coming back to the Ultima, so I sure hope he turns up.

Great bet COD - good luck pal.

Hope you're on board for the National as well - bit of 20-1 still about but likely to go off heaps shorter running off a perfect GN mark.

[ComplyOrDie]

Great bet COD - good luck pal.

Hope you're on board for the National as well - bit of 20-1 still about but likely to go off heaps shorter running off a perfect GN mark.

Thanks mate.

I've played the Ultima/GN special that SkyBet had @ 150/1.

If he doesn't win the Ultima I can still go in again for the national if I still think he looks a bet in it.

[Quevega]

Thanks mate.

I've played the Ultima/GN special that SkyBet had @ 150/1.

If he doesn't win the Ultima I can still go in again for the national if I still think he looks a bet in it.

That Warwick classic chase looks decent this year for festival types once more.
Obvious ones are Mr Incredible and Guetapan Collonges.

Both look ahead of their marks, and both might meet again in the KIm Muir, although either could also run in the Ultima.
Iwilldoit might even run in the Ultima, although that's doubtful.

[ComplyOrDie]

That Warwick classic chase looks decent this year for festival types once more.
Obvious ones are Mr Incredible and Guetapan Collonges.

Both look ahead of their marks, and both might meet again in the KIm Muir, although either could also run in the Ultima.
Iwilldoit might even run in the Ultima, although that's doubtful.

Strangely I'm not as big a fan of the horses that fight out the finish of that race, I'm more looking at the ones that finish a little down the field, which is why I backed Threeunderthrufive for the Ultima, and one, Lord Du Mesnil, that was well beat in the Warwick race, for the Kim Muir.

I like Guetapan Collonges too, so I might get him onside as well.

[Quevega]

Strangely I'm not as big a fan of the horses that fight out the finish of that race, I'm more looking at the ones that finish a little down the field, which is why I backed Threeunderthrufive for the Ultima, and one, Lord Du Mesnil, that was well beat in the Warwick race, for the Kim Muir.

I like Guetapan Collonges too, so I might get him onside as well.

I like Lord du mesnil, but he may run elsewhere and unlikely to shorten so I left him for now.
More likely for the Ultima as well I reckon as I'm not sure they'd get a decent amateur.

Just don't think threeunderthrufive is well handicapped on 150, so even though I accept the may burn me, he's one I've left as well. I would take 20-1 though. But he has been shortened since they mentioned the race and NRNB prices haven't been great.

[ComplyOrDie]

I like Lord du mesnil, but he may run elsewhere and unlikely to shorten so I left him for now.
More likely for the Ultima as well I reckon as I'm not sure they'd get a decent amateur.

Just don't think threeunderthrufive is well handicapped on 150, so even though I accept the may burn me, he's one I've left as well. I would take 20-1 though. But he has been shortened since they mentioned the race and NRNB prices haven't been great.

Yeah, quite possible they go for the Ultima tbf

And yeah, I'm not convinced Threeunderthrufive is lbs well in, but I thought his price might shorten and I don't dislike the horse, so I took some of the 14's and boosted it.

[Odin]

Quevega ComplyOrDie

Guetapan more likely to go for Midlands National https://www.racingtv.com/news/chelte...r-rare-edition

Got burnt by Time To Get Up doing it rather than winning the Kim Muir a few years ago for same owners so I'd be surprised if they took in Cheltenham having had a sighter at Uttoxeter last time as well

[Quevega]

Quevega ComplyOrDie

Guetapan more likely to go for Midlands National https://www.racingtv.com/news/chelte...r-rare-edition

Got burnt by Time To Get Up doing it rather than winning the Kim Muir a few years ago for same owners so I'd be surprised if they took in Cheltenham having had a sighter at Uttoxeter last time as well

Yeah I thought that, gone NRNB because I did exactly the same with Time to Get up
Would make sense for Frank to do that.

[Ball Mark]

I'm quite keen on Nassalam (backed 20s ew NRNB) of Gary Moore's as he looks to be crying out for 3m. His last run over 2m5f behind Midnight River was really good but he looked flat out the whole way until staying on really well up the hill. Ideally wants cut and it will be at least G/S on Day 1 via watering should it stay dry. Wouldn't be a shock if he wore some blinkers too.

[IstabraqBarRegular]

I like Nassalam for this too Ball Mark, think the 3m will suit
I have backed Threeunderthrufive and Lord Accord and think Nassalam will be my bet on the day if he runs

[Eggs]

….nearing handicap entries/weights stages, thought posters might appreciate some trend information;

Source; Jessica Lamb Feb ‘23, Bookmakers.co.uk.

THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Were trained in Britain.
- Had won no more than 4 chases, the majority winning 1 or 2.
- Had tasted victory over at least 3m (fences or hurdles).
- Had scored on a galloping track.
- Had at least 4 starts in the last 12 months.
- Had run at Chelt before (7 over fences) with 6 winning.


9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had a least 5 starts over fences (the exception being Un Temps Pour Tout who had 3).
- Taken part in at least 1 H’cap Chase. 3 of the last 4 had won more than 1.
- Finished in the first 3 in one of their last 3 starts.
- Last run no more than 59 days ago (the exception being Beware the Bear).
- Did not carry top weight. Finishing positions of the last 10 top weights, 0443P3107FP.

KEY TRIALS;

PP Chase at Leop thrown up 2 placed horses. Beware the Bear used Lad Trophy. in 2022 the 1st 4 were Le Milos, Remastered, Gericault & Corach, the 3rd & 4th filling the top 2 spots in last years Ultima. Corach & Gericault also ran in Classic Chase at Warwick, which 2020 winner The Conditional was also placed in (Iwilldoit, Mr Incredible, Notachance, Guetapan Collinges all prominent this year).

The Cleeve Hurdle produced 2 winners and 2 placed in last 10 years.

A positive to have run in this race before.

TRAINER TRENDS;

- Last 16 winners trained in England.
- 3 winners & 6 places each, D Pipe & JJ O’Neill are top. Hendo 2 winners & 9 places over 22 years.
- V Williams, Nicholls & NTD have poor records.

JOCKEY TRENDS;

- T Scudamore most successful with 3 wins & 5 places.
- Richie McClernon 2 winners & 3 places from 7 rides.

HOW DID THE TRENDS DO LAST YEAR;

- Corach was on trends radar, winning a Chelt H’cap Chase & with the Warwick Classic another key pointer.

WHO FITS TRENDS BEST IN 2023;

Chelt Nov Ch winner Threeunderthrufive has several wins over 3m & came 6th in Warwick Classic Chase. The snag is, his rating is 151 when last seen & winners tend to be no more than 145. Guetapan Collinges is one to watch. Our Power is of interest but not run for a while.

[Quevega]

If he doesn't get hammered by the handicapper, Oscar Elite looks a very solid option for the Ultima.

[Exar Essay]

If he doesn't get hammered by the handicapper, Oscar Elite looks a very solid option for the Ultima.

Agreed. 14/1 Hills looks very fair. Reflects the risk about the rise.

Will almost certainly get the RPR stat at least!!

[HoldenTheReins]

Mark blown you'd imagine