The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Nathaniel99999]

Any indication on preferred race??

The plate easily, Rob James taking off 7lbs would of come really close I think because the plate just looks the weaker race to win from what I can see, I wouldn't of been doing SOTG for the plate if Death Duty was going there, but I just think for the Ultima its tougher with good horses round him with better weight. I'm not saying Death Duty has no chance he may just prove me wrong and hack up but I just like Our power because of the last run and unexposed too at the distance. Fantastikas wouldn't be for me but I'd give the horse a chance though because its still on a good mark but I just see Our power having the better chance for this personally.

[Old Vic]

That was a bit scary from Crypto for Cloudy Glen backers

[OffTheBridle]

Nathaniel99999
Just in relation to our power, to my knowledge it has been awhile since a horse won the Ultima and had not previously won a race over 3 miles

I know he has his best rpr over 3 miles but for me personally, I look more into the rpr. Like for example vintage clouds and the conditional both had 4 out of 5 of their best rprs over 3 miles. They were strong 3 mile horses. I know there are similarities with coo star siviola and our power but to find 2 better handicapped horses in our power's first race over 3 miles doesn't bode well for this to me.

The 2 for me are Does he know, hopefully with headgear, and last years winner vintage clouds. I had also added discordantly to a few ew lucky 15's last week as he had ran well last year in this and is 2 pounds lower now so thought he might go one better and place this year. After his win today, if he turns up in the Ultima does he carry a penalty?

[Lobos]

Come on Teddy (First choice Ultima)....


"He is entered in both the Ultima Handicap Chase and the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase,” George was quoted as saying, as per Racing TV.

“However, I don’t know if he will get into the Ultima. We will have to wait and see.


“The plan is to run at Cheltenham, regardless. We are very happy with him and he is in good form.”

Tom George last 11 runners has yielded 5 wins and 4 placed plus a faller travelling well at the time........ stonking good form.

[Middle_Of_March]

Anyone know the plan for Ain’t That A Shame. Would fancy him to go well whichever race he’s sent.

[Eggs]

Anyone know the plan for Ain’t That A Shame. Would fancy him to go well whichever race he’s sent.

….no, but Pricewise put him up for the Kim Muir at a Preview last night (written summary in the Preview Night thread).

[YoungHustler]

Anyone know the plan for Ain’t That A Shame. Would fancy him to go well whichever race he’s sent.

I'm sure I've seen and read that the Kim Muir is the plan where I think he has a great chance based on form lines with Flouer/Frontal Assault via Champagne Platinum. He jumps and travels well and his last run to get a mark(although UK tax not great) will have put him spot on for Cheltenham.

[Jrow]

I think Floueur will end up going off fav here once davy is jocked up. Id certainly prefer him over death duty. The old stat for the race having best RPR over 3m applies to this lad now too. Running off a lovely weight, and that beginners race at fairyhouse is looking a nice piece of form. Death Duty is solid, but id take a younger improving horse over him, plus his best RPRs are over shorter. I think Gordons actually targeted this race for a change, he will be wanting to win absolutely everything after last year

[Lobos]

Anyone know the plan for Ain’t That A Shame. Would fancy him to go well whichever race he’s sent.

Kim Muir is the plan.

[Rooster Booster]

I think Floueur will end up going off fav here once davy is jocked up. Id certainly prefer him over death duty. The old stat for the race having best RPR over 3m applies to this lad now too. Running off a lovely weight, and that beginners race at fairyhouse is looking a nice piece of form. Death Duty is solid, but id take a younger improving horse over him, plus his best RPRs are over shorter. I think Gordons actually targeted this race for a change, he will be wanting to win absolutely everything after last year

I think this is a perfect example of the imperfection of trends. Death duty’s highest rpr is 162. If he reproduced that off the weight he will carry nothing else need bother turning up. Clearly it would be next to impossible for him to get back to those levels now and I think it is very harsh to beat him with this stick from a trends perspective. His last rpr was 150 which was his highest for a long time and obviously over 3m plus. I think this is far more relevant to his chances and it is very reasonable to expect him to be capable of an rpr above 150 which would put him in with a great shout.just throwing the rpr stat at him in this particular instance is unwise imo.

This post is entirely separate to whether Floueur has a good chance should he run in this....I think they both do and for me it will come down to jumping and the trip each get as it’s fine margins imo.

[Jrow]

I think this is a perfect example of the imperfection of trends. Death duty’s highest rpr is 162. If he reproduced that off the weight he will carry nothing else need bother turning up. Clearly it would be next to impossible for him to get back to those levels now and I think it is very harsh to beat him with this stick from a trends perspective. His last rpr was 150 which was his highest for a long time and obviously over 3m plus. I think this is far more relevant to his chances and it is very reasonable to expect him to be capable of an rpr above 150 which would put him in with a great shout.just throwing the rpr stat at him in this particular instance is unwise imo.

This post is entirely separate to whether Floueur has a good chance should he run in this....I think they both do and for me it will come down to jumping and the trip each get as it’s fine margins imo.

I fully agree about the trends, if i really fancied Death Duty the trend wouldnt influence me at all. But as im after some lovely confirmation bias for Floueur i’ll take it all day long

But seriously, of the 2 I can see Floeuer posting his best performance which may or not be good enough. However, he has the most scope for improvement and id have doubts wether DD could back up his last performance

[Old Vic]

David Jennings tipped School Boys Hours for this on RP preview ? Has there been any update on his target ? Had assumed Kim Muir more likely if he came over but DOC also potentially has Glenloe and Champagne Platinum for that.

[Eggs]

….this the main target for Fantastikas;

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/stable-tours/best-of-the-rest-from-britain

[BigChaang]

Eclair Surf to Skip this Race - at the races yest.

[Kevloaf]

….this the main target for Fantastikas;

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/st...t-from-britain

One of the ones I'm fearing the most that my formidable scatter gun didn't hit.