The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[ToniC]

Think floueuer could go to the national now. Depends what owners want to do. Think death duty comments could just be him being facetious/trolling the handicapper a bit as hes the only one that is actually technically well in, albeit by 1lb

[Saxon Warrior]

Think floueuer could go to the national now. Depends what owners want to do. Think death duty comments could just be him being facetious/trolling the handicapper a bit as hes the only one that is actually technically well in, albeit by 1lb

Hes well in on GB weights compared with all of his handicappers.

Have any others got a level rating or a minus one?

Havent checked them all yet, but none come to mind until I do the work across all 9 races.

Will update if I find one.

[DenmanSacre]

Hes well in on GB weights compared with all of his handicappers.

Have any others got a level rating or a minus one?

Havent checked them all yet, but none come to mind until I do the work across all 9 races.

Will update if I find one.

Ballyadam, Colonel Mustard and Champion Green on the same mark as Ireland as hurdlers.

School Boy Hours, Castlegrace Paddy and Ex Patriot on same mark for the chasers. A Wave of the Sea only up 1 pound, same as Coko Beach.

[TiggerRoll]

Hes well in on GB weights compared with all of his handicappers.

Have any others got a level rating or a minus one?

Havent checked them all yet, but none come to mind until I do the work across all 9 races.

Will update if I find one.

Fancy Foundations doesn’t have an IRE mark and he looks one of the more favourably treated, especially through Busselton.

[punterorplonker]

Oscar elite wont get in here will he? On 9-10 right

[Istabraq]

Oscar elite wont get in here will he? On 9-10 right

Pretty much no chance...

[punterorplonker]

Pretty much no chance...

Yep - going to have to back him in the Kim Muir then! annoying

[doctorwu]

Aye Right going to The Gold Cup Threeunderthroughfive going RSADoes He Know going 4miler

[Lbur4288]

I'm going to throw my case for a bit of a left field selection at a nice NRNB price. It's a very stat based selection and probably not for everyone but I'll share anyway.

We all know the Irish have a poor record in this and that headgear is another positive (9 from the last 10 winners wore headgear - interestingly none of them wore a hood). Winners tend to come from the mid-high 140s although this isn't exclusive to. Previous course form is a positive and 4 winners have even won after running in the same race previously at the festival. Winners carrying 10st10 equate to 75% of the last 12 winners.

My selection, Lord du Mesnil is currently scheduled to run from 10st9 off 147. What interests me is the fact he seems to tick lots of stats yet hasnt got much of a mention for this. He does also hold entries in the XC and also another crack at the Grand National but with the security of NRNB it's worth a crack.

He came 2nd in the 2020 National Hunt Chase (behind Ravenhill) off 153, as I've said - he's 147 now so could appear well in. I know a lot of people look at LDM as a Haydock specialist but the 2nd place in the NHC over the old course is there and the Ultima is also run over the old course.

Hes won at 3m+ before which is usually a necessity for an Ultima winner and he also wears a tongue tie and cheekpieces when he runs.

Hes pulled up on two from four runs this season although one was his first run back and the most recent run the jockey lost his irons. The other 2 runs were a defeat of just under 2 lengths giving 4lb to Good Boy Bobby and a well beaten 6th in a decent Peter Marsh.

I'm not too sure on the ground preferred as he's won on soft and he's won on heavy but at a glance it looks like he operates best on soft ground.

He's 33/1 with NRNB everywhere except Unibet who are offering 40/1 (someone who uses Unibet will have to confirm if they're nrnb). There's every chance he doesn't come for this or that it could just be either of his two Cheltenham entries are a prep before running in the National again but I'm prepared to risk that with the odds and concessions being rather generous on the face of it.

[Odin]

Lbur4288

Definitely coming down to a workable mark (maybe still a couple of pounds too high for me but I can see the argument that he looks OK at the weights). Bigger issue based on weather forecast is the ground perspective as he's a proper mudlark. Haydock soft I normally consider heavy everywhere else, Haydock heavy is basically swimming.

Good luck though - never gonna have everything perfect for a 33/1 shot

[Lbur4288]

Lbur4288

Definitely coming down to a workable mark (maybe still a couple of pounds too high for me but I can see the argument that he looks OK at the weights). Bigger issue based on weather forecast is the ground perspective as he's a proper mudlark. Haydock soft I normally consider heavy everywhere else, Haydock heavy is basically swimming.

Good luck though - never gonna have everything perfect for a 33/1 shot

The Haydock ground thing was something that made me question the ground he needs but other runs elsewhere on better ground including the NHC which was soft and as you say, at 33s you won't have it all your own way.

[Quevega]

I'm going to throw my case for a bit of a left field selection at a nice NRNB price. It's a very stat based selection and probably not for everyone but I'll share anyway.

We all know the Irish have a poor record in this and that headgear is another positive (9 from the last 10 winners wore headgear - interestingly none of them wore a hood). Winners tend to come from the mid-high 140s although this isn't exclusive to. Previous course form is a positive and 4 winners have even won after running in the same race previously at the festival. Winners carrying 10st10 equate to 75% of the last 12 winners.

My selection, Lord du Mesnil is currently scheduled to run from 10st9 off 147. What interests me is the fact he seems to tick lots of stats yet hasnt got much of a mention for this. He does also hold entries in the XC and also another crack at the Grand National but with the security of NRNB it's worth a crack.

He came 2nd in the 2020 National Hunt Chase (behind Ravenhill) off 153, as I've said - he's 147 now so could appear well in. I know a lot of people look at LDM as a Haydock specialist but the 2nd place in the NHC over the old course is there and the Ultima is also run over the old course.

Hes won at 3m+ before which is usually a necessity for an Ultima winner and he also wears a tongue tie and cheekpieces when he runs.

Hes pulled up on two from four runs this season although one was his first run back and the most recent run the jockey lost his irons. The other 2 runs were a defeat of just under 2 lengths giving 4lb to Good Boy Bobby and a well beaten 6th in a decent Peter Marsh.

I'm not too sure on the ground preferred as he's won on soft and he's won on heavy but at a glance it looks like he operates best on soft ground.

He's 33/1 with NRNB everywhere except Unibet who are offering 40/1 (someone who uses Unibet will have to confirm if they're nrnb). There's every chance he doesn't come for this or that it could just be either of his two Cheltenham entries are a prep before running in the National again but I'm prepared to risk that with the odds and concessions being rather generous on the face of it.

I like this horse and think it would have a chance on his best day.
But I am a little overloaded now for the ultima and can't really risk anymore, in case they all end up running, as I won't be able to lay any stakes on the day as I'll be going to Cheltenham.
But I have been checking if he's had any money at all on betfair, since the market was added. It is sometimes a good indication of intentions to run, although it's very early days.
Not a penny so far.

I also noted he was entered yesterday in the Cross Country.
Which probably means you'll have to cover him for that now as well as he's one of the higher rated runners.
Best price 25-1 NRNB.

[Lbur4288]

Quevega Its a good point about the exchange and something I will keep in mind, my gut feeling is he will go for the Cross Country en route to another Grand National run, if he's not declared I'll just back something else on the day I think.

[punterorplonker]

Did Gordon say a thing about fury Road for this after weights. I know he said Ultima or rsa depending on weights.

[FinalFurlong91]

Did Gordon say a thing about fury Road for this after weights. I know he said Ultima or rsa depending on weights.

Got absolutely murdered by the handicapper giving him 160

Not sure where he conjured that from personally