The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Native River]

Spiritofthegames is an interesting one that I didn't expect to be thrown up by the Cheltenham Trials Day trends when I looked at them. For those who haven't seen what I posted in the thread for that the summary is that the top 3 from the Trials Day 2 and half mile handicap chase tend to be ones you want on side, along with anyone who runs the Ultima had ran over 3m before. 4 of the 9 horses to go the Ultima after running that Trials Day hanidcap placed in the top 6.

Whilst he has all these question marks over can he get his head Infront or is he better off going Pertemps etc, I do think there you will get a run for your money in one of the handicaps it's just working out which one. Wouldn't be surprised to see his price holding up come the festival considering his recent market exploits and the fact there will be sexier unexposed types about in theory.

[charlie]

I've added Lieutenant Rocco @ 40/1 NRNB. I actually thought he did lots of things right on seasonal reappearance after 353 days off vs a load of race fit 150+ rivals. He clearly wasn't fit, which was to be expected. You could see he looked big and he went out like a light 5 out as a horse that wasn't race fit, but he jumped and travelled well alongside DD stringing out the field before getting tired. He's entered in the Betfair Chase at Ascot but I'm confident they'll go to the easier race at Warwick this weekend over 2m5f, which should see him come on again. He was 11-2 favourite in March last year before being ruled out due to being lame, so no long lasting residual issues. He's 7 years old, really well bred, unexposed, recorded his best RPR over 3m, is down to 140 which I expect to be nudged back up to 142+, he's run at a previous festival, has good Cheltenham experience, he's a second season chaser and he goes under the radar for a horse that was heavily fancied to win this at 6. No harm not taking this on then (6yo don't actually do that well) and there is no reason to think if he doesn't run well this weekend that he'll be targeted here and I think 40/1 NRNB is a value play on day one.

[Rooster Booster]

I've added Lieutenant Rocco @ 40/1 NRNB. I actually thought he did lots of things right on seasonal reappearance after 353 days off vs a load of race fit 150+ rivals. He clearly wasn't fit, which was to be expected. You could see he looked big and he went out like a light 5 out as a horse that wasn't race fit, but he jumped and travelled well alongside DD stringing out the field before getting tired. He's entered in the Betfair Chase at Ascot but I'm confident they'll go to the easier race at Warwick this weekend over 2m5f, which should see him come on again. He was 11-2 favourite in March last year before being ruled out due to being lame, so no long lasting residual issues. He's 7 years old, really well bred, unexposed, recorded his best RPR over 3m, is down to 140 which I expect to be nudged back up to 142+, he's run at a previous festival, has good Cheltenham experience, he's a second season chaser and he goes under the radar for a horse that was heavily fancied to win this at 6. No harm not taking this on then (6yo don't actually do that well) and there is no reason to think if he doesn't run well this weekend that he'll be targeted here and I think 40/1 NRNB is a value play on day one.

Who is he 40 nrnb with Charlie?

[DenmanSacre]

Who is he 40 nrnb with Charlie?

Bet365. 50s antepost if you want the risk

[charlie]

Who is he 40 nrnb with Charlie?

Oops, meant to post that, b365 mate

[Rooster Booster]

Oops, meant to post that, b365 mate

Thanks guys...figured it might be them...I think it’s a good shout nrnb btw. Agree with all your points ....alas I can’t play with them...33s not shabby though

[doctorwu]

I've added Lieutenant Rocco @ 40/1 NRNB. I actually thought he did lots of things right on seasonal reappearance after 353 days off vs a load of race fit 150+ rivals. He clearly wasn't fit, which was to be expected. You could see he looked big and he went out like a light 5 out as a horse that wasn't race fit, but he jumped and travelled well alongside DD stringing out the field before getting tired. He's entered in the Betfair Chase at Ascot but I'm confident they'll go to the easier race at Warwick this weekend over 2m5f, which should see him come on again. He was 11-2 favourite in March last year before being ruled out due to being lame, so no long lasting residual issues. He's 7 years old, really well bred, unexposed, recorded his best RPR over 3m, is down to 140 which I expect to be nudged back up to 142+, he's run at a previous festival, has good Cheltenham experience, he's a second season chaser and he goes under the radar for a horse that was heavily fancied to win this at 6. No harm not taking this on then (6yo don't actually do that well) and there is no reason to think if he doesn't run well this weekend that he'll be targeted here and I think 40/1 NRNB is a value play on day one.

I'd be a bit worried about the trainer move and the subsequent PU for 1st run. Always thought it was a bridle horse & never finds anything at the business end. Im struggling to find something this year, it may well be the case that its an obvious one that wins??

[charlie]

I'd be a bit worried about the trainer move and the subsequent PU for 1st run. Always thought it was a bridle horse & never finds anything at the business end. Im struggling to find something this year, it may well be the case that its an obvious one that wins??

The trainer move is explained here - all self explanatory. The owners are based near Harriet Brown so it's a new move that makes sense. I really wouldn't worry about the PU. Worth watching the race back. He was thrown in at the proverbial deep end in that race after such a long break and if his PU was failing to lie up with them from the word go, hitting fences and tailing off early then I'd agree, but it was far from that. The fact they started him there is a testament (or at least a good indication) as to how much ability he still retains. Ultimately, he's a 40/1 shot so there are going to be very legitimate things not to like (like being PU on debut) that people will have to look past in order to see the value in the bet (of which there may be none, but I think there is)

[KickOnMyCockers]

Was a right fatty on the day but you are right, Charlie, jumped as good as anything early doors and looked like a pipe opener. The speed of being PU would be the only concern (as didn't jump another obstacle) so could understand people's concern should it be seen as having a problem of some sort
was also the race of the sad fatal injury to TT

Out of interest, what kind of run would be needed to encourage him to take his place without blowing his mark?

[charlie]

Was a right fatty on the day but you are right, Charlie, jumped as good as anything early doors and looked like a pipe opener. The speed of being PU would be the only concern (as didn't jump another obstacle) so could understand people's concern should it be seen as having a problem of some sort
was also the race of the sad fatal injury to TT

Out of interest, what kind of run would be needed to encourage him to take his place without blowing his mark?

The speed at which he was pulled up was a big positive now we know post race he didn't bleed.

I think he'll place at Warwick, go up 3-4 and come here. The NRNB concession is nice because it takes the risk out of it. If he bombs and misses it no loss.

[KickOnMyCockers]

I like your thinking

[doctorwu]

The speed at which he was pulled up was a big positive now we know post race he didn't bleed.

I think he'll place at Warwick, go up 3-4 and come here. The NRNB concession is nice because it takes the risk out of it. If he bombs and misses it no loss.

Fair play Charlie. Good luck.

[jrjr]

The trainer move is explained here - all self explanatory. The owners are based near Harriet Brown so it's a new move that makes sense. I really wouldn't worry about the PU. Worth watching the race back. He was thrown in at the proverbial deep end in that race after such a long break and if his PU was failing to lie up with them from the word go, hitting fences and tailing off early then I'd agree, but it was far from that. The fact they started him there is a testament (or at least a good indication) as to how much ability he still retains. Ultimately, he's a 40/1 shot so there are going to be very legitimate things not to like (like being PU on debut) that people will have to look past in order to see the value in the bet (of which there may be none, but I think there is)

Lieutenant R was a big fav of mine last year but the stable shenanigans since he was pulled from the Ultima bother me. A couple of moves, the latest one being recently to a v small stable near me in sleepy Dorset (yes, it's near to the owner).
The new stable doesn't appear to have much (if any) top class experience, certainly not with a horse like LR. Will they be able to suitably prepare him for a race like the Ultima?

Perhaps I'm being naive and if the horse is good enough then this can be overcome. However, it is sufficient to stop me backing it.

[doctorwu]

Totally agree jrjr. One positive for the horse is that this is the one of the few races at the festival that an unfashionable trainer can win.

[charlie]

Totally agree jrjr. One positive for the horse is that this is the one of the few races at the festival that an unfashionable trainer can win.

Very true. Plus, he doesn’t know his trainer isn’t well known