The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Istabraq]

'The Ultima's always been the plan' - Snowden hopeful for owner's festival race

So you go and win a race prior to the festival and get 4lb giving away any advantage you had. And you wonder why these idiot trainers like Snowden can't win a race at Cheltenham Festival. And he's blown his RPR over 3 miles. Tosser.

Delving into the trends archive a few years ago (7/8/9 ish) the record of last time out winners in festival handicaps was very good, over 50% of the festival handicaps were won by horses that won last time.
I think the landscape has change markedly since then though, the Irish domination that has taken hold and there seems a clear difference between the thoughts of both handicappers (although how Sire de Berlais got 2lb shaved off his mark for a Warwick hack canter is beyond me).
Landscape has changed so that trend is probably outdated now.
My feeling with regard to the Snowdon horse, if you think the 4lb lift will end his chances then he was probably a stone too high anyway....

[Rooster Booster]

First off, I can't have the 'heavy' ground excuse at Sandown. He's won on Haydock Heavy, Hexham Heavy & Kelso Heavy. For me he was just found out. That was off a mark of 140, he's going to the Ultima off 141. In 4 attempts in handicap chases he's not actually won one (although this is usually a positive for this race I believe), but given he's run off 135 and still failed and will go to a much hotter race, in the Ultima, off 141 would not feel me with a whole heap of confidence.

The Kauto Star, I'd say he run to form. He was 17 lengths behind Bravemansgame and had a rating difference of 17lbs that day, where he was rated 137.

I wouldn't call him 'massively' overpriced at 28/1.

I'm still not convinced, to be honest, but obviously wish you all the best with your bets anyway and appreciate the reply

Blimey bit harsh to say he was ‘found out’ on only his first ever chase handicap and only his third run over fences and having to give weight to seasoned handicappers including a previous winner of this race.

[Rooster Booster]

'The Ultima's always been the plan' - Snowden hopeful for owner's festival race

So you go and win a race prior to the festival and get 4lb giving away any advantage you had. And you wonder why these idiot trainers like Snowden can't win a race at Cheltenham Festival. And he's blown his RPR over 3 miles. Tosser.

Guess you won’t be putting your horse with him then

[ComplyOrDie]

Blimey bit harsh to say he was ‘found out’ on only his first ever chase handicap and only his third run over fences and having to give weight to seasoned handicappers including a previous winner of this race.

I mean he was 'found it' in that particular race, wasn't he? He was well beat. Wasn't harsh, just a fact. Appreciate the type of race it was, but, IMO, it doesn't retract from the fact he didn't win, and I'm not using the ground as the reason for the defeat, like the case made, was.

[giantcauseway]

wow!! There's some harsh words there!! Rooster booster spot on with the context of Kiltealy Briggs. Carrying top weight on heavy ground on just his third race against hardened handicappers. No surprised that was beyond him. More experienced now and a better jumper. Still unexposed over 3m with every indication in his pedigree to suggest he can thrive for the step up. Lots to like and I thank whomever it was who flagged his case

[Rooster Booster]

I mean he was 'found it' in that particular race, wasn't he? He was well beat. Wasn't harsh, just a fact. Appreciate the type of race it was, but, IMO, it doesn't retract from the fact he didn't win, and I'm not using the ground as the reason for the defeat, like the case made, was.

Whether he was or wasn’t I personally find it a very harsh stick to beat him with now but we all see things differently ...thank goodness

[doctorwu]

Delving into the trends archive a few years ago (7/8/9 ish) the record of last time out winners in festival handicaps was very good, over 50% of the festival handicaps were won by horses that won last time.
I think the landscape has change markedly since then though, the Irish domination that has taken hold and there seems a clear difference between the thoughts of both handicappers (although how Sire de Berlais got 2lb shaved off his mark for a Warwick hack canter is beyond me).
Landscape has changed so that trend is probably outdated now.
My feeling with regard to the Snowdon horse, if you think the 4lb lift will end his chances then he was probably a stone too high anyway....

Ista,
I like horses that take a win into the festival, but not the Ultima. You need all the help you can get to win a festival handicap. The biggest disappointment for me is 3m RPR. Whether you're into stats this one is the strongest festival stat, and I won't be backing anything that doesn't fit that. Im hoping everyone jumps on Kilkealy so it offers me a nice cash-out. Good luck.

[Istabraq]

Ista,
I like horses that take a win into the festival, but not the Ultima. You need all the help you can get to win a festival handicap. The biggest disappointment for me is 3m RPR. Whether you're into stats this one is the strongest festival stat, and I won't be backing anything that doesn't fit that. Im hoping everyone jumps on Kilkealy so it offers me a nice cash-out. Good luck.

That historic stat (I'll try and dig out what year it was from) covers all handicaps so isn't Ultima or chase specific.
Just a personal view but to win a festival handicap I think you need to be getting on for a stone ahead of your mark..

[Carnage at Taunton]

Handicapper has done us a right favour. Doesn't now satisfy the best RPR stat over 3m (got 150 at the weekend) but he's got so much more in hand at the longer trip for me.

Indeed, very nice

I was expecting a bit more

[Nathaniel99999]

I had kiltealy briggs for this, and I'm 50/50 as to whether he can take this. Mark of 141 doesn't really give him much to work off this mark. 137 I was pretty confident the horse would of come close but mark of 141 just doesn't give enough room to improve. I still think the horse may do well, but I'm struggling.to see an alternative for this since some are not coming here or there handicap is too high.

[Nathaniel99999]

Does anyone know if "Spiritofthegames" may come here? chase mark of 136, running on last time and finished 3rd, has ran some good races over 3m including at Aintree last year behind Happygolucky and finish 3 lengths behind this horse on a mark of 144, and Happygolucky finished 2nd in last years Ultima on a mark of 147. So am I right in thinking maybe Spiritofthegames is potentially going here?

[RufusFlynn]

Spiritifthegames could feasibly end up in any handicap at the festival just about. He’s a horse I like but IMO will always find at least one too good whichever race he goes for.

[Nathaniel99999]

Spiritifthegames could feasibly end up in any handicap at the festival just about. He’s a horse I like but IMO will always find at least one too good whichever race he goes for.

Just done a small punt on him at 25/1 NRNB on Williamhill could not believe the price and had to do it, only done 2 for this race Kiltealy briggs and Spiritofthegames. I've noticed his form has a good stack to it. I'm struggling to work out why it would be 25/1 against Galahad quest whos round 10/1 in most places and yet SOTG was running on almost past Galahad. Plus in previous races it was giving weight to Galahad quest. I think a mark of 136 over 3m would be the best the best option and I just hope the Skeltons do choose this race because looking at all races it could run in, for me this looks the best one going weights wise when I look at it anyway. I could be wrong but this race looks tailor made for Spiritofthegames for the way its been prepped.

[Benjy23]

I have him for the Pertemps'. Qualified first run of the season and handicapper gave him good few lbs back after Cheltenham hurdles run. As you say he has loads of handicap options though, both hurdles and chases. A NRNB selection imo.

[Rooster Booster]

I have him for the Pertemps'. Qualified first run of the season and handicapper gave him good few lbs back after Cheltenham hurdles run. As you say he has loads of handicap options though, both hurdles and chases. A NRNB selection imo.

A place only selection on the day imo...hasn’t won a race since 2018....at some point a horse dropping a few pounds or seeming like it might be well handicapped becomes irrelevant. When he wins I’m happy to lose....surely he is a cliff horse to many as his name seems to crop up every year, the conversation being the same...well handicapped but which race is he going to run in....might as well copy and paste for next year (though he will be 11). If he does win well done to those that have kept the faith, you deserve every penny.