The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[DenmanSacre]

He's going to be 144 minimum isn't he - Pay The Piper an admirably consistent sort.

If he's 144 I'd be delighted. Plenty of scope in that mark for me but think he may be higher after watching that again.

[doctorwu]

Take it you also liked him? He would have been a stone or more in off his current mark. Let's hope the handicapper isn't too harsh but could end up high 140s now.

Indeed I do Denman. He'll blow his advantage & his 3m RPR. IDIOT.

[Spectre]

I can only assume you guys are talking about for a place!

[doctorwu]

I can only assume you guys are talking about for a place!

Have you remastered a plan Spectre ;-))))

[RoadToCheltenham]

Handicapper given Kiltealy Briggs +4 after the weekend to 141.

Imagine a few on this forum are pretty happy with that!

[DenmanSacre]

Handicapper given Kiltealy Briggs +4 after the weekend to 141.

Imagine a few on this forum are pretty happy with that!

Handicapper has done us a right favour. Doesn't now satisfy the best RPR stat over 3m (got 150 at the weekend) but he's got so much more in hand at the longer trip for me.

[Benjy23]

From RP this morning on the above.

"The Ultima has always been the plan this season," said Snowden. "He won nicely up at Haydock and ran really well in the Kauto Star. We gave him a flu vaccination and a bit of time to rest after that.

"We needed to get a run into him before the Ultima and his owners [the McNeill family] like having runners at Musselburgh. He stepped back in trip on better ground but got away with it, and the step back up to three miles will help. It was a gritty performance after the last.

"He'll undoubtedly have a bit more weight in the Ultima now, but he jumps like a seasoned handicapper and ran well at the festival last March. He's a second-season novice, which has helped him this year."

Always been the target is interesting to have confirmed. Although already been mentioned on here.

[Irish Rugby]

One could say this is another example of the UK's tolerance, some may even used the word leniency, when it comes to assessing horses, this season. Horses aren't 'being handicapped out of it' as much as we are use to.

I could be talking rubbish, I'm not a handicapper, but when you see the mark given to Kiltealy Briggs, and others this year, there has been a re-focus by the handicapper.

[Stormez]

Lovely news to wake up to!

[JackieMoon33]

Handicapper given Kiltealy Briggs +4 after the weekend to 141.

Imagine a few on this forum are pretty happy with that!

Very strange and also very lenient from what I can make out. He beat a 143 (consistent) horse off levels by half a length so you would have expected at least the same mark of 143. I don’t know the ins and outs of the process but that seems like a 2lb gift unless I’m missing something.

[ComplyOrDie]

What's the angle with Kiltealy Briggs? As I must be missing a few things, as he's not one that seems blatently obvious, IMO.

The positives I've made about him.

Age is fine
He's a novice
We know it's his target (probably not a major positive given most firms are NRNB now anyway)

The one BIG issue I have with him is:

Including his p2p & hurdles runs he's been beat over 3m five times


That's not the profile of a horse I'd want for a tough race beyond 3m at the festival, to be perfectly honest, regardless of his rating.

[DenmanSacre]

What's the angle with Kiltealy Briggs? As I must be missing a few things, as he's not one that seems blatently obvious, IMO.

The positives I've made about him.

Age is fine
He's a novice
We know it's his target (probably not a major positive given most firms are NRNB now anyway)

The one BIG issue I have with him is:

Including his p2p & hurdles runs he's been beat over 3m five times


That's not the profile of a horse I'd want for a tough race beyond 3m at the festival, to be perfectly honest, regardless of his rating.

Of those 3m races:

1 was a PTP where he was beat a neck and got a RPR of 91 which is a good effort.

Next over 3m was a grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham, where he ran well but made a mistake at the 2nd last but was a decent enough effort.

Ran in the Albert Bartlett Monkfish but 100/1 and never expected to get anywhere near the protagonists. Held up more than he had been ridden previously and another mistake at the 2nd last meant he was never going to get near the front and jockey pulled him up.

In his first novice season last year, ran over 3m at Sandown on Sandown heavy and made another mistake as well as not jumping as well as he has done this year.

Last race over 3m was the Kauto Star where his run was very good for a horse that is going to end up off somewhere close to 11st in the Ultima.

His jumping has been much improved this year compared to last, attitude has improved and been getting tested over the mid trip in close finishes and to me, looks like the step up will bring big improvement.

At 28/1 NRNB with Bet365 a week or so ago, he was massively overpriced as I think he will end up single figures in all honesty. He will probably be the top on adjusted RPRs and on Timeform ratings and he offered the most value at the time.

His run at the last festival in the Plate was also pretty good over a short trip and with him likely to race prominently, he looks an ideal horse for this.

[Buckingham]

At 28/1 NRNB with Bet365 a week or so ago, he was massively overpriced as I think he will end up single figures in all honesty. He will probably be the top on adjusted RPRs and on Timeform ratings and he offered the most value at the time.

Wont be top but should be close to. Of those quoted in the betting these are the horses whose best RPR in the past 15 months is most in excess of their current hcap mark:

Shan Blue (+24) - unlikely runner
Cloth Cap (+17) - unlikely runner
Alnadam (+11) - stamina ?
Fusil Raffles (+11) - stamina ?
Jerrysback (+10) - on downgrade?
Remastered (+10)
Full Back (+9)
Kiltealy Briggs (+9)
The Wolf (+9)
Ashtown Lad (+8)
Gericault Roque (+8)
Cloudy Glen (+8)

[ComplyOrDie]

Of those 3m races:

1 was a PTP where he was beat a neck and got a RPR of 91 which is a good effort.

Next over 3m was a grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham, where he ran well but made a mistake at the 2nd last but was a decent enough effort.

Ran in the Albert Bartlett Monkfish but 100/1 and never expected to get anywhere near the protagonists. Held up more than he had been ridden previously and another mistake at the 2nd last meant he was never going to get near the front and jockey pulled him up.

In his first novice season last year, ran over 3m at Sandown on Sandown heavy and made another mistake as well as not jumping as well as he has done this year.

Last race over 3m was the Kauto Star where his run was very good for a horse that is going to end up off somewhere close to 11st in the Ultima.

His jumping has been much improved this year compared to last, attitude has improved and been getting tested over the mid trip in close finishes and to me, looks like the step up will bring big improvement.

At 28/1 NRNB with Bet365 a week or so ago, he was massively overpriced as I think he will end up single figures in all honesty. He will probably be the top on adjusted RPRs and on Timeform ratings and he offered the most value at the time.

His run at the last festival in the Plate was also pretty good over a short trip and with him likely to race prominently, he looks an ideal horse for this.

First off, I can't have the 'heavy' ground excuse at Sandown. He's won on Haydock Heavy, Hexham Heavy & Kelso Heavy. For me he was just found out. That was off a mark of 140, he's going to the Ultima off 141. In 4 attempts in handicap chases he's not actually won one (although this is usually a positive for this race I believe), but given he's run off 135 and still failed and will go to a much hotter race, in the Ultima, off 141 would not feel me with a whole heap of confidence.

The Kauto Star, I'd say he run to form. He was 17 lengths behind Bravemansgame and had a rating difference of 17lbs that day, where he was rated 137.

I wouldn't call him 'massively' overpriced at 28/1.

I'm still not convinced, to be honest, but obviously wish you all the best with your bets anyway and appreciate the reply

[doctorwu]

'The Ultima's always been the plan' - Snowden hopeful for owner's festival race

So you go and win a race prior to the festival and get 4lb giving away any advantage you had. And you wonder why these idiot trainers like Snowden can't win a race at Cheltenham Festival. And he's blown his RPR over 3 miles. Tosser.