The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[doctorwu]

Yes I agree, gets the trip well and loves running up the hill past beaten horses. I doubt he’ll be put up by the handicapper given his age after that. I think that run today would be good enough to make the places given he’s only rated 139 and will have a low weight

Doesn't look like an Ultima horse to me & doesn't fit any main trends. Good luck.

[nortonscoin200]

Native River what did you think of Galahad Quest today regarding his Ultima chances.

Ran well again today but available at 33-1 NRNB with WH.

Still looks like 3 miles would be more to his liking imo. Fingers crossed Nick Williams sees it that way.

[Atlantic Viking]

Been looking at Galahad Quest too, but the 'All winners this century had recorded their best RPR over at least 3 miles' trend is a pretty big one to overcome as it stands. How likely are they to have another run when they've already had 2 this month? Coo Star Sivola did something similar but with bigger gaps between races and one less run, if we saw Galahad again in say Feb, the festival would be his 7th race of the season!

[Mighty]

Atlantic Viking I know someone who is close to the owners - will see what I can find out about future plans.

[Native River]

Native River what did you think of Galahad Quest today regarding his Ultima chances.

Ran well again today but available at 33-1 NRNB with WH.

Still looks like 3 miles would be more to his liking imo. Fingers crossed Nick Williams sees it that way.

Agree with you, wasn't too put off by what I saw, guess it's all about whether the trainer sees it that way but you would hope 3m is just what the doctor ordered. Only concern would be the fact Williams has used this race to prep Siruh Du Lac for the Plate but NRNB gives that cover I guess!

[RoadToCheltenham]

Agree with you, wasn't too put off by what I saw, guess it's all about whether the trainer sees it that way but you would hope 3m is just what the doctor ordered. Only concern would be the fact Williams has used this race to prep Siruh Du Lac for the Plate but NRNB gives that cover I guess!

Not to worry - he ran Coo Star Sivola in this race (4th behind Frodon) and then went and won the Ultima at the Fez.

[Speedy17]

Fantastikas quoted as heading for the NH Chase... Ffs.

[DenmanSacre]

Annsam has been mentioned already by others so I won't go into detail on him. I can also see the merits in Cloth Cap and his falling handicap mark.

The one I'm most interested in of the above at the moment is Kiltealy Briggs.

Owned by the McNeils (who sponsor the race) and when asked if Escaria Ten will come here, he mentioned KB would most likely be his horse for this.

LTO he came 3rd in the Kauto Star behind Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor, beaten 17 and a half lengths. He got an RPR of 146 for that run, yet is rated 137 by the handicapper. He wasn't given a hard time in the race and I'd expect a more positive ride at Cheltenham like he has had in his other races.

His best runs have tended to be left handed (record is 2131P9421) yet put up a career best last time right handed. His jumping is also pretty spotless this season.

Over fences he has been running over shorter distances, finishing 9th in the Paddy Power Plate in the 2021 festival off a rating of 139 so he has gone down 2 pounds despite winning a C2 novice chase at Haydock over 2m5.5f in heavy ground this season and running well in a grade 1.

His Haydock run was good - made all, great leap at the last and kept finding more to repel Mint Condition who won next time out.

The form of his Uttoxeter 4th place first time up is also good. Heskin lost his whip toward the end which didn't help in the finish. The first has finished 2nd and then won off a 6 pound higher mark since, the 2nd place has won since off a 2 pound higher mark and the 5th also won next time out.

As a novice hurdler he was seen as a stayer - 2nd in a grade 2 over 3m at Cheltenham, won over 2m6.5 at Kelso and ran in the Albert Bartlett.

I'd like to see a him race again before Cheltenham so he isn't off the track for 3 months and ideally get an entry in the next couple of weeks.

Wore a tongue strap last time so ticks the headgear stat.

8 years old - 7 of last 9 no older than 9.

Second season novice - 10 of last 13 were novices or second season chasers.

33s I feel is a big price for a horse of his profile but I can't see any reason why his odds would reduce over the next couple of weeks so we may get NRNB with PP after the DRF and the 5 places before he is next out and hopefully he will still be 20s to 25s with them.

McNeil confirms still the plan and will get another run beforehand.

28s Bet365 NRNB and BOG is better than I thought.

Annsam was also 28s a couple of days ago and cut to 25s

[NeptuneByANose]

Fantastikas quoted as heading for the NH Chase... Ffs.

Gutted with this one! The quote seemed pretty definitive, so I've reluctantly cashed out the 33/1. Still got a bit at 25/1 with Hills that I can't get out of, and will leave the 16/1 NRNB in the futile hope that connections change their mind. Back to the drawing board for me though, really, as he was the one I was most keen on.

Think I'll start by joining others on the 25/1 NRNB about Annsam.

[Lobos]

Really like the look of Cloth Cap for this. Decent Cheltenham record. Ran very well in the Hennessy which is a good pointer to this race. Refused at Ascot last time but could be a blessing as handicapper has dropped him to 147 which is 1lb below his last winning Weight when running away with the race at Kelso prior to his Grand National run. 4 horses in the last 12 year's have won the race aged 9-11 so his age isn't an issue and Jonjo has won the race twice in that time so it's a race he targets. Available at 25/1 best price or 20/1 NRNB. I normally wait until the week itself for handicaps but might make an acception for him as he stands out to me.

[Carnage at Taunton]

McNeil confirms still the plan and will get another run beforehand.

28s Bet365 NRNB and BOG is better than I thought.

Annsam was also 28s a couple of days ago and cut to 25s

Nice write up DS, you talked me into a small wager.
Think 28 nrnb is fair.

[DenmanSacre]

Nice write up DS, you talked me into a small wager.
Think 28 nrnb is fair.

Looks like we will see him this weekend.

Either Musselburgh over 2m4 or Wetherby over 3m.

I'd be inching toward the Musselburgh race as Pay The Piper and Friend or Foe should have too much pace for him and as a class 2, even a win may not see his mark rise too much.

Wetherby has Ahoy Senor, Does He Know and others rated higher in it so finishing too close to them could spoil the mark.

[NeptuneByANose]

After the Fantastikas disappointment, I've been digging through the market and uncovered another who I'm warming to, perhaps ill-advisedly.

Coeur Serein fits plenty of the key Ultima/festival handicap trends, provided you're willing to pretend that 2m7.5f at Lingfield is the same as 3 miles:

• Novice? Yep.
• Wears headgear? Yep.
• Course form this season? Yep.
• Aged 8 or lower? Yep.
• British trained? Yep.
• Best RPR over 3 miles? Sort of (see above).

A rapid improver over hurdles late last season (racked up 3 wins on the spin, all on varying ground and up to a 3m1f trip), Coeur Serein was pitched in to the Persian War on stable debut. He plugged on remotely before being sent over to Lingfield for his chase debut over the aforementioned 2m7.5f off a mark of 135. Giving weight all round, he was going sweetly throughout, taking it up with a couple fences to go following a round of decent jumping. He had the race sewn up before inexplicably tipping up after jumping the last. Having seen the amount of surface water on the run in, I'm going to put it down to a slip and a stumble. Behind him that day were some modest sorts, but the same sorts chased home Fantastikas next time out, and the latter was giving away far less weight then Coeur Serein was.

Nudged up a rather harsh 7lbs to 142, he ran in the same Cheltenham 3m1f handicap that Corach Rambler won and subsequently attracted interest for the Ultima. Coeur Serein was 8 lengths behind that day, but his run certainly catches the eye (not necessarily positively) in hindsight. His jumping was solid again. He was restrained at the rear of the pack, often put out wide to give him sighters of his fences. It looked like he was given an educational ride for a circuit and a bit.

Admittedly, then being bumped along in the back straight on the second circuit didn't make for great viewing, but despite being presumably outpaced for some time, he somehow continued to stick on behind the leading 4 round the home turn and into the straight. He actually ran on pleasingly after the last, and I am encouraged that his jumping remained solid throughout half a circuit of being bumped along and the jockey reaching for the whip.

With his 'genuineness' in question, he was dropped to 141 and went to Exeter, a notoriously undulating track, where he ran off a distant top weight (nearest rival rated 13lb his inferior, while he was giving 19lbs to each of the other four rivals). Bumped along again early in the race after a slight jumping error led to his jockey losing his iron, there is no denying that he might be a lazy type, and it was here that he started to jump left, significantly so at times, which quickly put him in trouble. He was on and off the bridle from there on out, racing lazily, one minute sitting stylishly at the front, the next slipping back to 4th and being pushed along. It looked hard work, especially so throughout the home straight, but he was staying on best of all and was set for a clear second before being allowed to ease right down after the last. The form is modest again, but I don't think he enjoyed the race at all, going the wrong way round on soft enough going.

It may simply be that he is a giant boat, or it may be that his laziness is holding him back. He is undoubtedly one for the forgiving types. But I can't help but feel that there is much more ability than we have seen thus far.

If willing to take that view, of encouragement is that Coeur Serein is now 9lbs better off with Corach Rambler after their Cheltenham race, and I personally think there's enough to suggest that he possesses the ability to eat into that 8 length deficit at those revised marks. Corach Rambler is currently 12/1 NRNB with 365; understandably, he is at the fore of the market and is looked upon fondly. Conversely, Coeur Serein, trained by a three-time Ultima winner, is 40/1 with the same firm and concession.

It might be the insomnia talking, but I think that's too big.

Annsam and Coeur Serein for me, then. With the hope that the Twiston-Davies' rethink their Fantastikas destination.

[Studfarm254]

You could be right but I’ve a sneaky suspicion the handicapper will leave him be as he’s an old lad. Be interesting to see what happens

As predicted kauto riko left on the same mark at 139 despite running to a 152 RPR

[Outlaw]

As predicted kauto riko left on the same mark at 139 despite running to a 152 RPR

They’ve said CH has ran to 176 and gone from there. Me thinks the RP assessor has a GC docket on him