The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Faugheen_Machine]

Can I ask you or anyone why it would be disappointing if VC won this as a 12yo? I get the 12yos shouldn't win level weights graded races because they should be on the downgrade, but this strikes me as a different case to that. As a 10 and 11yo VC recorded RPRs over a stone in excess of his current 143 weight and the year before that he ran 8lbs above it twice. We usually talk of a horse needing a stone in hand to win a festival handicap so if he's just been plotted for this race, which is entirely plausible given he's run in it for the last 5 years, and he returns to last years form, he still has that stone in hand - lot of ifs there I accept but if he has that much in hand, is it that disappointing if he wins?

Disappointing was the wrong the wrong word as there's no doubt he'd be a popular winner.

I'd be surprised if he didn't find a few too good and his price at the moment with 4 places isn't appealing to me. If he's 20/1+ with 6 or 7 places then I'll almost certainly back him again.

[Quevega]

Disappointing was the wrong the wrong word as there's no doubt he'd be a popular winner.

I'd be surprised if he didn't find a few too good and his price at the moment with 4 places isn't appealing to me. If he's 20/1+ with 6 or 7 places then I'll almost certainly back him again.

25-1 5 places with hills

[Lobos]

Disappointing was the wrong the wrong word as there's no doubt he'd be a popular winner.

I'd be surprised if he didn't find a few too good and his price at the moment with 4 places isn't appealing to me. If he's 20/1+ with 6 or 7 places then I'll almost certainly back him again.

Very likely to get that on the day I'd say with your 6/7 places. Hold fire.

[Quevega]

Very likely to get that on the day I'd say with your 6/7 places. Hold fire.

I couldn't make my mind up what his price would do.
He wasn't popular last year and was one I backed that didn't shorten.
But he's last years winner so if he's mentioned for the race by connections at some point I'd expect a few to chop it.
But I can also see the other side.
The extra places can always be taken nearer the time if backed with cash out and price has not moved of course.

And the extra places are not that attractive for single's (ew). I'm not backing for 6th or 7th place.

But for multiples, like your cross doubles then I can see why these are an advantage.
The downside is you'll end up backing horses that are popular and well found more often than not, and therefore half the price they are now.

You should be doing cross doubles now NRNB on certain horses really.
When you start listing them I'll check them over and see what price they were at this stage. Just to see, as an experiment.

Swings and roundabouts. I reckon.

[Bonjers]

FFS Fergal/Paddy.

[Quevega]

FFS Fergal/Paddy.

Thought the same.
Strange campaign really, has to go graded race now surely.
Be pushing 150+

[Studfarm254]

Probably a big shout but I’d give kauto Rico some sort of chance in this.

If you watch it’s run back 4 starts ago at Cheltenham and please do watch it back, it absolutely flew up the hill behind coole Cody that day. (Worth bearing in mind it would be 13lb better off with Cody meeting it today) That was over 2 and a half miles and would certainly leave you thinking what could this horse do over the ultima trip.

It’s next run was in the topham over the national fences where it pulled it so very easy to forgive that run.

Its next run they stepped it up to 3 miles and it ran an absolute blinder, gaining on two for gold (who franked the form at the weekend) all the way to line (another race worth watching back if you haven’t already). This proves that it’ll absolutely stay 3 miles and the extra furlong in the ultima u’d imagine even more so in its favour. Also proves that’s there’s still plenty of life left in the old lads legs.

It’s next run back at Cheltenham I’m happy to excuse on the basis the race came too quickly and was running at the wrong distance anyway.

It has entries at Cheltenham and Doncaster over 3 miles this weekend so clearly their plans are to go back up in trip which wasn’t really rocket science. I can’t see it priced up for the ultima yet but I’d imagine you’d be getting close to 50/1 given it’s age which is obviously the biggest negative. Vintage clouds done it last year so proves it can be done

anyone else a believer yet? Or is it still just me? Thought he ran a blinder there and wasn’t given a hard race

[Stormez]

anyone else a believer yet? Or is it still just me? Thought he ran a blinder there and wasn’t given a hard race

He’s always ran his best races after a long break, often first run of the season, so it’s a quick turnaround for him.

He does love running past horses off a strong pace though so can easily see him running into a place. Maybe one for the day with the extra places?

[Studfarm254]

He’s always ran his best races after a long break, often first run of the season, so it’s a quick turnaround for him.

He does love running past horses off a strong pace though so can easily see him running into a place. Maybe one for the day with the extra places?

Yes I agree, gets the trip well and loves running up the hill past beaten horses. I doubt he’ll be put up by the handicapper given his age after that. I think that run today would be good enough to make the places given he’s only rated 139 and will have a low weight

[DenmanSacre]

Yes I agree, gets the trip well and loves running up the hill past beaten horses. I doubt he’ll be put up by the handicapper given his age after that. I think that run today would be good enough to make the places given he’s only rated 139 and will have a low weight

I think his rating will go up.

You'd need the handicapper rating Chantry House 150 and the front 3 running below their best for Kauto Riko not to be increased. Might end up being a poor piece of placement by the trainer.

[Studfarm254]

I think his rating will go up.

You'd need the handicapper rating Chantry House 150 and the front 3 running below their best for Kauto Riko not to be increased. Might end up being a poor piece of placement by the trainer.

You could be right but I’ve a sneaky suspicion the handicapper will leave him be as he’s an old lad. Be interesting to see what happens

[Quevega]

You could be right but I’ve a sneaky suspicion the handicapper will leave him be as he’s an old lad. Be interesting to see what happens

He should do, as he was held up off the pace and ran on - his age like you say - and the handicapper has pledged to try and not be too harsh on handicappers running in graded races.
If he gets more than 2lbs then the handicappers a nob

[Lobos]

I couldn't make my mind up what his price would do.
He wasn't popular last year and was one I backed that didn't shorten.
But he's last years winner so if he's mentioned for the race by connections at some point I'd expect a few to chop it.
But I can also see the other side.
The extra places can always be taken nearer the time if backed with cash out and price has not moved of course.

And the extra places are not that attractive for single's (ew). I'm not backing for 6th or 7th place.

But for multiples, like your cross doubles then I can see why these are an advantage.
The downside is you'll end up backing horses that are popular and well found more often than not, and therefore half the price they are now.

You should be doing cross doubles now NRNB on certain horses really.
When you start listing them I'll check them over and see what price they were at this stage. Just to see, as an experiment.

Swings and roundabouts. I reckon.

The extra places are what it's all about with the EW Cross doubles (,6-8 in places) aspect so We just have to wait until the week itself. The extra places and confirmed races makes up for ANY pre race options without a doubt.

[Jrow]

I think both Cloudy Glen and Cloth Cap will be aimed at this. And would be backing both

Cloudy Glen has ran a couple of stinkers since the ladbroke win, so hopefully his mark is lowered again after today. He ran ok for a long way today, just as Cloth Cap has this season.

[Exar Essay]

I think both Cloudy Glen and Cloth Cap will be aimed at this. And would be backing both

Cloudy Glen has ran a couple of stinkers since the ladbroke win, so hopefully his mark is lowered again after today. He ran ok for a long way today, just as Cloth Cap has this season.

Admittedly I was watching ‘the race’ rather than just Cloudy Glen, and will need to watch back later, but it looked a very controlled ride by Charlie. I didn’t see him touch CG or ask him for anything. Very much one to note for this IMO.