The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[doctorwu]

RPRs

• 20/20 (100%!) of winners had run their highest previous OR over 3m+ (actually not quite true. 3 runners - Frenchman's Creek, Youlneverwalkalone and Witchita Lineman had run their joint highest RPRs over shorter trips)

It is true MB. The 3 in question had their highest RPR over 3m

[doctorwu]

Does He Know - i agree he has a nice profile similar to Happygolucky last year

The Wolf - is he not trained by Olly Murphy? It does tend to pay to go with horses which ran in the race last year (finished 10th) but think there are a few like Vintage Clouds and Aye Right that if turning up again would be too good for him.

I keep looking at him but something (not just the trainer) keeps putting me off. He runs in snatches & I'm not sure he's genuine?? Not sure you'd want your money on him in a battle up the hill. I had him down as a "dark horse" last year which didn't prove fruitful at all. Ive a couple of horses of interest for this but not sure if this is the target yet. Neither are in the betting ??

[Quevega]

I keep looking at him but something (not just the trainer) keeps putting me off. He runs in snatches & I'm not sure he's genuine?? Not sure you'd want your money on him in a battle up the hill. I had him down as a "dark horse" last year which didn't prove fruitful at all. Ive a couple of horses of interest for this but not sure if this is the target yet. Neither are in the betting ??

Yeah.
Doe she know didn't make my shortlist for same reasons, although I can't discount him.
And I backed the Wolf last year and notcied his run the other day.
Again not quite on my list yet as the run style may not suit, I prefer fairly prominent racers.

[Goldentouch]

I keep watching last years race back for clues and can’t help but be impressed by Cepage’s finish. He was being hurried along before the bend and then steadily climbed the hill to finish 4th, all while carrying top weight.

This year he will be 10, has decent Cheltenham form, has ran this race twice already, and is currently dropping ratings to hopefully not run off top weight again. I don’t know if he has a best RPR over 3m as I don’t personally know how to read that stat on the cards (if anyone can help would be much appreciated).

I think 33/1 B365 is fair at this stage, I can’t see where else it would be being aimed at..

At this stage it’s my main dart at this race

[doctorwu]

I keep watching last years race back for clues and can’t help but be impressed by Cepage’s finish. He was being hurried along before the bend and then steadily climbed the hill to finish 4th, all while carrying top weight.

This year he will be 10, has decent Cheltenham form, has ran this race twice already, and is currently dropping ratings to hopefully not run off top weight again. I don’t know if he has a best RPR over 3m as I don’t personally know how to read that stat on the cards (if anyone can help would be much appreciated).

I think 33/1 B365 is fair at this stage, I can’t see where else it would be being aimed at..

At this stage it’s my main dart at this race

Cepage doesn't have the all important RPR over 3m+ I thought he looked like a non-stayer.

[Might_Bite]

RPRs

• 20/20 (100%!) of winners had run their highest previous OR over 3m+ (actually not quite true. 3 runners - Frenchman's Creek, Youlneverwalkalone and Witchita Lineman had run their joint highest RPRs over shorter trips)

It is true MB. The 3 in question had their highest RPR over 3m

Hey Woosterrrr,

Just having a look...

Witchita Lineman had two RPRs of 155 prior to his Ultima Win over 3m and 2m4f

Youlneverwalkalone had his best RPR of 169 in the Hattons Grace (2m4f) and had his best chase RPRs 147 over 3m and 2m1f

Frenchman's Creek had his best RPR of 139 in 2m5f and 3m races


So I suppose you could say Youlneverwalkalone actually bucks the trend... must have missed that last night.

[doctorwu]

Goldentouch,

Chase	23	5	3	3	?86,580	?177,635	153	150	161

Racing Post Ratings (RPR) Check out his top rating (161) & see which race/distance he obtained that mark.

[Goldentouch]

Cepage doesn't have the all important RPR over 3m+ I thought he looked like a non-stayer.

ah! Thanks for clarifying. That’s a shame about the RPR, back to the drawing board for the winner I guess.

[Bonjers]

I keep watching last years race back for clues and can’t help but be impressed by Cepage’s finish. He was being hurried along before the bend and then steadily climbed the hill to finish 4th, all while carrying top weight.

This year he will be 10, has decent Cheltenham form, has ran this race twice already, and is currently dropping ratings to hopefully not run off top weight again. I don’t know if he has a best RPR over 3m as I don’t personally know how to read that stat on the cards (if anyone can help would be much appreciated).

I think 33/1 B365 is fair at this stage, I can’t see where else it would be being aimed at..

At this stage it’s my main dart at this race

One of the all time WTF decisions when they ran him in the Ultima over the Plate in 2020. He just isn't a 3m horse and I'd have to think they've lost their opportunity with him at the festival now.

[jackh50]

Demachine is one I’ve got a keen eye on for here.

he was beaten 4 lengths by remastered in the Reynoldstown last year off of levels and jumped left throughout, in my opinion if the race was run on a left handed track then Demachine would have won or got very close to winning. A poor jump at the last exaggerated the winning margin anyhow.

He was going as well as anything in the Ladbrokes trophy rounding the bend into the straight where he just wasn’t classy enough to go with the leaders, plus I don’t think he’s a genuine stayer over 3m2f, so that combined with it being his first start of the year most likely contributed to him fading away into 5th. He was dropped 2lbs for that to 140 and if he goes to Cheltenham off of a similar mark with another run under his belt on good to soft ground I will be pretty sweet on his chances.

plus his 2 best ever RPR’s have been over 3 miles. Both times they were going right handed and I’d like to think he has a decent bit of improvement for going the other way round.

I’ve just seen that he is declared at Ludlow Monday, so I’ll reassess after that run as I wouldn’t want him much above 140.

edit: unseated at the first at Ludlow, now a 50/1 poke with 365. Will follow his progress over the next few weeks, the closer we get the more tempting that will be.

[Nwfb89]

Not priced up anywhere yet but one I'd have a eye on for this if he was to come here is corach rambler who won at the December meeting this season, I know lucinda mentioned after winning last race about going for the Scottish national but maybe this could be an option en route

[Pendil]

Not priced up anywhere yet but one I'd have a eye on for this if he was to come here is corach rambler who won at the December meeting this season, I know lucinda mentioned after winning last race about going for the Scottish national but maybe this could be an option en route

Introduced @ 14/1 by Sky. Hills have him at 25/1

[Nwfb89]

Introduced @ 14/1 by Sky. Hills have him at 25/1

Ah ye so he is thanks for pointing out for some reason he's not listed on oddschecker either that or I was looking at the wrong race , 25s a fair price I'd say although I'd rather wait for nrmb I think and hope to get 16s or 18s

[DenmanSacre]

Not priced up anywhere yet but one I'd have a eye on for this if he was to come here is corach rambler who won at the December meeting this season, I know lucinda mentioned after winning last race about going for the Scottish national but maybe this could be an option en route

Scottish GN is on the 2nd April this year, the week before the English GN and only 2 and a half weeks after the Ultima. I'd imagine he will skip the festival if the Scottish GN is the plan.

[Nwfb89]

Scottish GN is on the 2nd April this year, the week before the English GN and only 2 and a half weeks after the Ultima. I'd imagine he will skip the festival if the Scottish GN is the plan.

Ah right didn't realise it was so close this year always had it in my head Scottish national was ran after the Aintree festival, deffo won't be backing unless nrmb then