The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Istabraq]

Avoiding Irish horses antepost looks a good shout, as not many seem to run.

Aside from not having a winner (yet), they don't seem to run too badly when they do turn up though. Must have a reasonable percentage of places v runners on those numbers.

It wasn't that many years ago the Irish wouldn't even have a runner here, in fact the handicap chases in general were ignored by Irish trainers who focused on the G1 races, times have clearly changed...

[RufusFlynn]

Does He Know and The Wolf are my antepost selections so far for this race with the former being the more fancied choice. A novice chaser with lots of experience around Cheltenham, nicely weighted and trained by the brilliant Kim Bailey. He’s ran well on his 3 starts this season, completing every time around at Chepstow & Cheltenham over the distance of the Ultima. The Wolf is a genuine outsider but ran very well last time out at Cheltenham, finishing strongly over 3m 2f so has the stamina. He is a second season chaser and while there will be better horses in the race he could be a lively outsider near the foot of the weights for poor Tom George who has a rough season so far

Does He Know - i agree he has a nice profile similar to Happygolucky last year

The Wolf - is he not trained by Olly Murphy? It does tend to pay to go with horses which ran in the race last year (finished 10th) but think there are a few like Vintage Clouds and Aye Right that if turning up again would be too good for him.

[The King Pimm]

Does He Know - i agree he has a nice profile similar to Happygolucky last year

The Wolf - is he not trained by Olly Murphy? It does tend to pay to go with horses which ran in the race last year (finished 10th) but think there are a few like Vintage Clouds and Aye Right that if turning up again would be too good for him.

Yes you’re right, he’s trained by Olly Murphy not Tom George sorry. I agree he won’t be winning on ratings but the way he ran on at Cheltenham behind Full Back on New Year’s Day he could be good for a place at a big price and may lunge late to win

[JamieSensible]

I had only checked oddschecker and they don’t have Does He Know listed, shorter than I’d hoped.

Agree with you there too, looks to have a decent pot in him going by his chase starts this season.

Also priced with Will Hill, who regularly have prices that are not listed on Odds checker from what I've seen this year.

[JamieSensible]

I've had my darts for this race early on, I'm going scatter gun with 4 healthy selections at good prices I've done 1pt win the 2nd, 3rd and 4th and 1.5pts win on the first.

The first 3 also have Cheltenham form.

• Does He Know - I've made cases for the horse on numerous occasions, I took 22/1 with WillHill boost. Ran 3 times at Cheltenham this season, short of pace for a graded race but will stay up the hill. Think the Happygolucky of 2022.
• Fantastika - Another Novice chaser, 3rd in the dipper to L'homme Presse. has ran over 3m already this season, beaten by Threeunderthrufive who is a solid grade 2 level Novice. fairly lightly raced, on a mark of 140, 33/1 available at bet365.
• Remastered - for some reason has a gold Cup entry, god only knows why. He's a strong stayer but is not up to graded level in open company. on a mark of 146, this has to be his gold Cup. 25/1 with bet365.
• Annsam - Is the standout Saturday handicapper for me so far this season. I don't like to use Ascot form for Cheltenham but he looks to have more room for improvement, and off a mark of 140, 33/1 with bet365 looks too big.

I'd be keen to see if anyone else thinks there's a more obvious horse in the market so far.

I appreciate there's the Cheltenham January meeting to come which sometimes throws up a doozey, beware the bear etc..

Commodore potentially, or maybe he's more likely Kim Muir.

[NeptuneByANose]

I've had my darts for this race early on, I'm going scatter gun with 4 healthy selections at good prices I've done 1pt win the 2nd, 3rd and 4th and 1.5pts win on the first.

The first 3 also have Cheltenham form...[*]Fantastika - Another Novice chaser, 3rd in the dipper to L'homme Presse. has ran over 3m already this season, beaten by Threeunderthrufive who is a solid grade 2 level Novice. fairly lightly raced, on a mark of 140, 33/1 available at bet365.

I'm far too sweet on Fantastikas given how far out we are from Festival week. I'm liking his profile more and more.

Obviously, he's British trained, which is a good start as far as the Ultima goes. Then, he's a novice, which itself is becoming a key trend for festival handicaps as a whole.

He won on chase debut quite easily from a mark of 128, with Pemberley (who received 16lbs) 7 lengths behind. Pemberley won next time out, then finished 2nd in the Sussex National. There were a couple of other decent-enough horses in behind, too, so the form has a nice look to it for a debut performance.

His second to Threeunderthrufive offered encouragement, in that he jumped and travelled well in the main. He couldn't go with the winner in the home straight, but I agree with you that Threeunderthrufive is a graded horse who I quite like for the National Hunt Chase. He has been a fine horse over obstacles, beyond disappointing slightly in the Bartlett, and was rated 13lbs superior to Fantastikas at the time (yet only had to give him 3lbs).

Then, as you say, his third in the Dipper looks better the more you look at it. It's given him that all important Cheltenham experience, and he has run more than creditably in following home the Glancing Queen, a decent yardstick who herself had impressed in listed Mares' chases thus far. The winner looks proper graded class over the middle distance, while Fantastikas was running over what is, for himself, an inadequate trip. In that context, I'm starting to look fondly on the distance Fantastikas put between himself and Come On Teddy (won a novice h'cap chase off 137 on chase debut), Oscar Elite, and the like.

Fantastikas is now 12lbs higher than his chase debut handicap win (up to 140), which I think is quite a nice mark given his exploits against better opposition after that comfortable performance.

There are naturally negatives, not least how far out we are from the Festival, but I'd actually be quite happy if they stuck him away now and let him run in this off 140, as it is a mark that should put him right in the middle of the weights back over his preferred trip. His campaign thus far is not too dissimilar to Happygolucky's early season exploits last year, and he ought to have won off 147 last year.

There may be many others to come out the woodwork, and he doesn't fit too many of the race-specific trends, but he jumps/travels well and appeals most to me out of those currently priced up, especially at the odds. William Hill had him at 25/1, with no other bookies offering a price initially. Based on my Twitter feed, it seems like a Twitter judge has got Bet365 to price him up recently, though, and they go 33/1.

I believe Sam Twiston-Davies put him up in the early season stable tours as one to follow; at 33/1, I've had a little top up at that price.

[YoungHustler]

I've had my darts for this race early on, I'm going scatter gun with 4 healthy selections at good prices I've done 1pt win the 2nd, 3rd and 4th and 1.5pts win on the first.

The first 3 also have Cheltenham form.

• Does He Know - I've made cases for the horse on numerous occasions, I took 22/1 with WillHill boost. Ran 3 times at Cheltenham this season, short of pace for a graded race but will stay up the hill. Think the Happygolucky of 2022.
• Fantastika - Another Novice chaser, 3rd in the dipper to L'homme Presse. has ran over 3m already this season, beaten by Threeunderthrufive who is a solid grade 2 level Novice. fairly lightly raced, on a mark of 140, 33/1 available at bet365.
• Remastered - for some reason has a gold Cup entry, god only knows why. He's a strong stayer but is not up to graded level in open company. on a mark of 146, this has to be his gold Cup. 25/1 with bet365.
• Annsam - Is the standout Saturday handicapper for me so far this season. I don't like to use Ascot form for Cheltenham but he looks to have more room for improvement, and off a mark of 140, 33/1 with bet365 looks too big.

I'd be keen to see if anyone else thinks there's a more obvious horse in the market so far.

I appreciate there's the Cheltenham January meeting to come which sometimes throws up a doozey, beware the bear etc..

Commodore potentially, or maybe he's more likely Kim Muir.

Good Boy Bobby has been very good this season and I think he will run very well in this if that is the aim.

[DenmanSacre]

Too early for me to get involved in this race due to the Shan Blue shadow over the race. If he turns up in this off 148 then he has a stone or more in hand and will be incredibly difficult to beat if near his best, although I don't think Cheltenham is particularly his course. If he does turn up here, he will be short and there will be value in the market behind him.

The one I think could be a decent each way play is Come On Teddy.

Has course and festival form - won the Citipost Handicap Hurdle over 3m in December 2020, beating On The Blind Side and Mohayeed. Also finished 3rd in the Pertemps last year finishing just behind The Bosses Oscar.

Also has form at Warwick (3rd in a Pertemps qualifier behind Imperial Alcazar) which I like for Cheltenham. His best runs have been on undulating tracks.

Been out twice over fences, winning a limited handicap chase first time up over 2m4. Fern Hill and Gustavian have came out since and ran respectably.

Raced at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, again over 2m4 which isn't far enough for him. Was running an OK race before being hampered by Millers Bank and losing a shoe, which caught him further back than ideal at a crucial part of the race.

He's had a sighter of the Cheltenham fences now and I would have hoped Warwick in the 3m grade 2 would be the next port of call if he has come out of the Cheltenham race well.

The negative is that he races from off the pace and he would need the perfect trip to win this as those that run up with the leaders have a great record in the race. He also hasn't got the trusted highest RPR at 3m yet nor raced over 3m over fences yet.

He's one that I'll wait until I see the 3m chase entry before I back for a small stake each way and more likely to back on the day with 6 places and look at the place odds if he does turn up in this.

Only rated 137 so would get a nice weight in this but I'd hope he runs well enough over 3m to get a high rating than this.

Fits some key trends (per Gaultstats):

Ran at Cheltenham this season
Novice
8 years old
Won a hurdle valued over ?10k
Ran at previous festival (and placed)
Won a class 3 chase
Won over 3m (over hurdles)

William Hill have him at 20s but Bet365 have him priced up at 33s which is a fair enough price. I'll wait for his next entry and if it is over 3m I'll put a small bet on now and probably wait for the extra places to be available on the day.

[Quevega]

Very strong stats in this race and horses that have not ran their best RPR/rating over 3 miles plus have a very poor record , especially novices.
proper stayers race.
doctorwu knows

[Quevega]

I see denman mentioned that
Only got half way through
must get better at that

[JamieSensible]

DenmanSacre I agree Shan Blue would be a stone well in based on what he seemed to be doing in his last run, but he didn't finish the race. Its a very short price for what will be a very competitive race.

He's not one for me at the price.

I also don't think Come on Teddy has transferred his hurdle form to chasing, reminds me of Tea Clipper. Solid hurdler but just not there chasing.

[Might_Bite]

I got a bit board in front of the TV this evening and tucked into looking into the trends and stats for this race. I started off interested and I have ended up pretty board but the results are somewhat interesting.

I went back through the last 20 winners and tried to find the strongest trends and the trends that aren't maybe as strong as you'd think. I'll get into those after some age and weight stuff. Should have probably done the placed horses as well, maybe another evening...

Age

• 20/20 winners were between the age of 6-11 (inclusive)
• The mean and median winning age was 8 years old.
• 16/20 winners were 7,8 or 9 (5, 8 and 3 wins respectively)

Weight (ORs)

• The average winning OR was 140 with the median 142
• 14/20 (70%) carried 10 stone something

Trends

RPRs

• 20/20 (100%!) of winners had run their highest previous OR over 3m+ (actually not quite true. 3 runners - Frenchman's Creek, Youlneverwalkalone and Witchita Lineman had run their joint highest RPRs over shorter trips)

Course Experience

• 19/20 (95%!!) of winners had previous Cheltenham course experience
• 14/20 of winners had previous Cheltenham chase course experience
• 14/20 of winner had previous Cheltenham Festival experience but only 1 of those had Cheltenham Festival winning form.
• And just over half (11/20) has previous old course experience

Previous History

• 18/20 winners had run that year
• The average break before the festival was 44 days and the median was 45 days
• Cheltenham Trials days was used 3 times as the final race and there was a 3m race at Doncaster that was used a couple of times

Nationality

• 16/20 winners were trained in the UK
• There hasn't been an irish trained winner for 14 years
• Jonjo and David Pipe have won three ultima's a piece in the past 20 years

Novices

• Only 11/20 previous winners were novices
• However, its fair to say the majority were on the improve. 14/20 had 10 or fewer chase runs. median was 7.5, mode was 5.
• And if they weren't on they improve they had course experience, lots of it!

Conclusion

• So the preference is for a proper stayer (recorded their best RPR over 3m+), who has Chelt course experience, will run this year and is trained in the UK

So, nothing we didn't already know!

[DenmanSacre]

DenmanSacre I agree Shan Blue would be a stone well in based on what he seemed to be doing in his last run, but he didn't finish the race. Its a very short price for what will be a very competitive race.

He's not one for me at the price.

I also don't think Come on Teddy has transferred his hurdle form to chasing, reminds me of Tea Clipper. Solid hurdler but just not there chasing.

Funnily enough his chase win is his highest ever rating. He did it in a good time figure for me as well.

I think the step up to 3m should bring out improvement but I'd want to see him have the 3m run first and get his highest RPR, even if it means he rises a few pounds.

He has the right profile, with festival form. I'll stake a small each way bet if he runs well over 3m and if he turns up on the day, I'd be interested in the odds in the place market as he will find it hard to win being dropped out the back. At 33/1 he looks the most value to me at the moment.

[ComplyOrDie]

If there is one stat/trend I'm willing to ignore it's that Ireland don't win this.

They win pretty much every other handicap, it's only a matter of time before they win this one again, and if I feel I've found the 'one' then being trained in Ireland wouldn't put me off at all.

[doctorwu]

Very strong stats in this race and horses that have not ran their best RPR/rating over 3 miles plus have a very poor record , especially novices.
proper stayers race.
doctorwu knows

Indeed Q

No horse has won this race without achieving there best RPR over 3m+. This is the biggest stat of the festival. So you can discard anything that hasn't achieved this. Come on Teddy can't be backed at the present time.