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The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

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  • Starting to look at this race in more depth and there are a few that are interesting.

    I'm looking for a horse that races prominently, best RPR over 3m+, has Cheltenham experience (with festival experience a bonus) and has ran well at least once this season.

    The one's on my shortlist at the moment are Kiltealy Briggs (33s Bet365 4 places), Definite Plan (25s Bet365 4 places), Full Back (25s Unibet 4 places), Annsam (33s Bet365 4 places) and another that isn't yet listed that I'll wait for entries and NRNB before mentioning.

    Annsam has been mentioned already by others so I won't go into detail on him. I can also see the merits in Cloth Cap and his falling handicap mark.

    The one I'm most interested in of the above at the moment is Kiltealy Briggs.

    Owned by the McNeils (who sponsor the race) and when asked if Escaria Ten will come here, he mentioned KB would most likely be his horse for this.

    LTO he came 3rd in the Kauto Star behind Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor, beaten 17 and a half lengths. He got an RPR of 146 for that run, yet is rated 137 by the handicapper. He wasn't given a hard time in the race and I'd expect a more positive ride at Cheltenham like he has had in his other races.

    His best runs have tended to be left handed (record is 2131P9421) yet put up a career best last time right handed. His jumping is also pretty spotless this season.

    Over fences he has been running over shorter distances, finishing 9th in the Paddy Power Plate in the 2021 festival off a rating of 139 so he has gone down 2 pounds despite winning a C2 novice chase at Haydock over 2m5.5f in heavy ground this season and running well in a grade 1.

    His Haydock run was good - made all, great leap at the last and kept finding more to repel Mint Condition who won next time out.

    The form of his Uttoxeter 4th place first time up is also good. Heskin lost his whip toward the end which didn't help in the finish. The first has finished 2nd and then won off a 6 pound higher mark since, the 2nd place has won since off a 2 pound higher mark and the 5th also won next time out.

    As a novice hurdler he was seen as a stayer - 2nd in a grade 2 over 3m at Cheltenham, won over 2m6.5 at Kelso and ran in the Albert Bartlett.

    I'd like to see a him race again before Cheltenham so he isn't off the track for 3 months and ideally get an entry in the next couple of weeks.

    Wore a tongue strap last time so ticks the headgear stat.

    8 years old - 7 of last 9 no older than 9.

    Second season novice - 10 of last 13 were novices or second season chasers.

    33s I feel is a big price for a horse of his profile but I can't see any reason why his odds would reduce over the next couple of weeks so we may get NRNB with PP after the DRF and the 5 places before he is next out and hopefully he will still be 20s to 25s with them.

    Definite Plan is interesting as an Elliott horse who won at Cheltenham over course and distance this season but I don't know what the plan is for the horse. One for NRNB as the Irish handicaps are more valuable and could also go to the Kim Muir. He does tick a fair few trends despite being Irish though.

    Full Back - I'll wait to see how hard the handicapper hits him tomorrow as he's split 2 150 rated horses at the weekend.
    ​​​​​​​

    Comment


    • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post
      Starting to look at this race in more depth and there are a few that are interesting.

      I'm looking for a horse that races prominently, best RPR over 3m+, has Cheltenham experience (with festival experience a bonus) and has ran well at least once this season.

      The one's on my shortlist at the moment are Kiltealy Briggs (33s Bet365 4 places), Definite Plan (25s Bet365 4 places), Full Back (25s Unibet 4 places), Annsam (33s Bet365 4 places) and another that isn't yet listed that I'll wait for entries and NRNB before mentioning.

      Annsam has been mentioned already by others so I won't go into detail on him. I can also see the merits in Cloth Cap and his falling handicap mark.

      The one I'm most interested in of the above at the moment is Kiltealy Briggs.

      Owned by the McNeils (who sponsor the race) and when asked if Escaria Ten will come here, he mentioned KB would most likely be his horse for this.

      LTO he came 3rd in the Kauto Star behind Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor, beaten 17 and a half lengths. He got an RPR of 146 for that run, yet is rated 137 by the handicapper. He wasn't given a hard time in the race and I'd expect a more positive ride at Cheltenham like he has had in his other races.

      His best runs have tended to be left handed (record is 2131P9421) yet put up a career best last time right handed. His jumping is also pretty spotless this season.

      Over fences he has been running over shorter distances, finishing 9th in the Paddy Power Plate in the 2021 festival off a rating of 139 so he has gone down 2 pounds despite winning a C2 novice chase at Haydock over 2m5.5f in heavy ground this season and running well in a grade 1.

      His Haydock run was good - made all, great leap at the last and kept finding more to repel Mint Condition who won next time out.

      The form of his Uttoxeter 4th place first time up is also good. Heskin lost his whip toward the end which didn't help in the finish. The first has finished 2nd and then won off a 6 pound higher mark since, the 2nd place has won since off a 2 pound higher mark and the 5th also won next time out.

      As a novice hurdler he was seen as a stayer - 2nd in a grade 2 over 3m at Cheltenham, won over 2m6.5 at Kelso and ran in the Albert Bartlett.

      I'd like to see a him race again before Cheltenham so he isn't off the track for 3 months and ideally get an entry in the next couple of weeks.

      Wore a tongue strap last time so ticks the headgear stat.

      8 years old - 7 of last 9 no older than 9.

      Second season novice - 10 of last 13 were novices or second season chasers.

      33s I feel is a big price for a horse of his profile but I can't see any reason why his odds would reduce over the next couple of weeks so we may get NRNB with PP after the DRF and the 5 places before he is next out and hopefully he will still be 20s to 25s with them.

      Definite Plan is interesting as an Elliott horse who won at Cheltenham over course and distance this season but I don't know what the plan is for the horse. One for NRNB as the Irish handicaps are more valuable and could also go to the Kim Muir. He does tick a fair few trends despite being Irish though.

      Full Back - I'll wait to see how hard the handicapper hits him tomorrow as he's split 2 150 rated horses at the weekend.
      ​​​​​​​
      I had the same idea doing Kiltealy Briggs for this, either this horse or Vienna Court but I think Vienna Court looks like its going for another race either the mares chase or another race. But Kiltealy Briggs was my 2nd selection for this. Rated 137 is a good mark its on and I have not seen many other horses I've seen that I feel that can win this. I think 33/1 is pretty huge I have had a couple of quid on Kiltealy Briggs for this and hoping it does run a big race which I reckon it will plus the Cheltenham experience the horse has already had will help and 2lbs below this time when running in the Paddy power plate which when you look at has had horses winning in other races after that race took place.

      Comment


      • Probably a big shout but I’d give kauto Rico some sort of chance in this.

        If you watch it’s run back 4 starts ago at Cheltenham and please do watch it back, it absolutely flew up the hill behind coole Cody that day. (Worth bearing in mind it would be 13lb better off with Cody meeting it today) That was over 2 and a half miles and would certainly leave you thinking what could this horse do over the ultima trip.

        It’s next run was in the topham over the national fences where it pulled it so very easy to forgive that run.

        Its next run they stepped it up to 3 miles and it ran an absolute blinder, gaining on two for gold (who franked the form at the weekend) all the way to line (another race worth watching back if you haven’t already). This proves that it’ll absolutely stay 3 miles and the extra furlong in the ultima u’d imagine even more so in its favour. Also proves that’s there’s still plenty of life left in the old lads legs.

        It’s next run back at Cheltenham I’m happy to excuse on the basis the race came too quickly and was running at the wrong distance anyway.

        It has entries at Cheltenham and Doncaster over 3 miles this weekend so clearly their plans are to go back up in trip which wasn’t really rocket science. I can’t see it priced up for the ultima yet but I’d imagine you’d be getting close to 50/1 given it’s age which is obviously the biggest negative. Vintage clouds done it last year so proves it can be done

        Comment


        • Handicap changes

          Comment


          • Relating specifically to the horses high up in the Ultima betting:

            Phoenix Way +6 - 146
            Fantastikas +4 - 144
            Remastered -1 - 145
            Full Back +1 - 140

            Comment


            • Hi guys. I may be so off in this. But I have backed Oscar elite for the ultima and the plate. Running on sat now with a good f chance after some tizzard winners this week.
              I haven't even thought about ratings which is poor on my part but he was 2nd in the AB.

              Entered in the brown and turner's but I shoulnt be worried about that should I?

              Comment


              • Oscar Elite finished distressed last time. Bled and was showing post race Ataxia.

                Comment


                • Re. Oscar Elite i think he does still have potential but history would suggest that Tizzards favour the non-handicaps and tbh they had some huge priced placed horses last year when the yard form was dire so that fact that overall horses are running better this time is a plus for his chances anywhere.

                  If he put up a reasonable performance on Saturday I would say he'll likely run in the BANC/Turners and if he's poor at the weekend he may not run in March at all.

                  Comment


                  • Thoughts on vintage clouds to win back to back races? Last 3 races won off an OR of 143, current mark is back to 143 from what I can see? Has a 12 year old ever won the ultima?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Thethinker87 View Post
                      Thoughts on vintage clouds to win back to back races? Last 3 races won off an OR of 143, current mark is back to 143 from what I can see? Has a 12 year old ever won the ultima?
                      He's heavily on my radar. Wouldn't be surprised to see him run poorly again in the next couple of weeks as a prep run, maybe with a wind-op involved at some point, but if Cloth Cap turns up for the same owners and possibly even Cloudy Glen, there's a strong argument that both would have better chances. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the Hemmings colour entries and decs

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Thethinker87 View Post
                        Thoughts on vintage clouds to win back to back races? Last 3 races won off an OR of 143, current mark is back to 143 from what I can see? Has a 12 year old ever won the ultima?
                        I find it hard to see him winning as a 12yr old but I'll be backing him when the extra places are available on the day. He'll run his race but it'd be slightly disappointing if he were good enough to win, imo.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Odin View Post

                          He's heavily on my radar. Wouldn't be surprised to see him run poorly again in the next couple of weeks as a prep run, maybe with a wind-op involved at some point, but if Cloth Cap turns up for the same owners and possibly even Cloudy Glen, there's a strong argument that both would have better chances. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the Hemmings colour entries and decs
                          Cheers Odin!! I’ll keep my eyes open over the next few weeks for entries and also consider CC and CG

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post

                            I find it hard to see him winning as a 12yr old but I'll be backing him when the extra places are available on the day. He'll run his race but it'd be slightly disappointing if he were good enough to win, imo.
                            Can I ask you or anyone why it would be disappointing if VC won this as a 12yo? I get the 12yos shouldn't win level weights graded races because they should be on the downgrade, but this strikes me as a different case to that. As a 10 and 11yo VC recorded RPRs over a stone in excess of his current 143 weight and the year before that he ran 8lbs above it twice. We usually talk of a horse needing a stone in hand to win a festival handicap so if he's just been plotted for this race, which is entirely plausible given he's run in it for the last 5 years, and he returns to last years form, he still has that stone in hand - lot of ifs there I accept but if he has that much in hand, is it that disappointing if he wins?

                            Comment


                            • Got impatient and backed Escaria Ten today 16/1.
                              Can't look beyond a couple of his novice runs last season and at around 150 he looks to have a huge chance in this.
                              Sadly no NRNB or extra places for me so I have to assume this is the plan but if it is, and this is soon confirmed, he'll go single digits I think...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                                Got impatient and backed Escaria Ten today 16/1.
                                Can't look beyond a couple of his novice runs last season and at around 150 he looks to have a huge chance in this.
                                Sadly no NRNB or extra places for me so I have to assume this is the plan but if it is, and this is soon confirmed, he'll go single digits I think...
                                There was a quote recently saying his main aim is Grand National, but surely they'd go for their own race en route and he'd have a massive chance if he went

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