The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Rooster Booster]

Seen it mentioned a few times around here and on previews about the Irish not winning this race often.

Few weeks ago I mentioned that the early signs were that the Irish looked strong this year and the UK runners look weak, this is not uncommon in most races now of course including the Grand National which is effectively the Irish National "held at Aintree".

To put the Ultima stat in perspective though.
In both of Un Temp pour Touts wins, the Irish only had 3 runners, and in the year after in 2018 when Coo Star Sivola won, they had jack shit - zero.
Only looked at those three years, but it's fairly clear the Irish dominance and volume of runners has been on the up in recent seasons.

Looking at this years 6 day stage I'd guess they'll have at least 10, maybe half the field.

And a UK trained horse will probably still win

Hopefully not.
My team is now down to just the 9

The Goffer 2ptew5 27-1 WH & 2pt 13-1 WH
Busselton 1ptew5 40-1 Sky
Theatre Man 2pt 14-1 Sky
Monbeg Genius 1pt 20-1 PP
Meetingofthewaters 3pt 10-1 PP
Apple Away 1ptew5 25-1 B365
Amirite 1ptew5 25-1 B365
Giovinco 2pt 22-1 WH
Chianti Classico 1pt 14-1 B365 1pt 20-1 WH

Hoping Theatre Man goes for the Plate and Jonjo don't bother running Monbeg but added at 20's yesterday as it would sicken me if it won.
I expect Lucinda to only run the one as well.
And one or two may opt out for other targets due to the ground.

So hopefully I end up with around 5/6 runners which is fine, and then I may add one on the day.
I have had a small stakes bet at triple figures on Dom of Mary but he likely won't get in. Think Bridgwater would prefer this race over the Kim Muir though. Or Midlands National.
And I have Stumptown in some multiples. Don't think he's well in but is a danger.

Added Busselton yesterday and the 40-1 still around after Joseph mentioned he might run. He is good value based on a lot of his back form. IMO
Most of the others have been discussed/mentioned on here plenty enough.

Trelawne & Twig would be potential bum twitchers for me but are on the reserve list to be backed if my numbers thin out and they get declared.
Or might just risk it. We'll see.

If the sun keeps shining you’ll only need one … am I right?

[Quevega]

If the sun keeps shining you’ll only need one … am I right?

Very doubtful any festival starts on better than Soft these days, so covered for Kim Muir just in case.
If it was "Good to Soft" Bussleton is better handicapped on the last time they met.

[Kevloaf]

Meetingofthewaters is a boosted 13/2 in WH specials.
Best price is 6/1 on the exchange and 5/1 at bookies.

I've reluctantly just backed it as a bit of a 'saver' and want others to as well so I don't feel as pathetic

[Exar Essay]

Jack on board The Naiad

[Magpie]

Followed you in Kev, just to get stakes back
on others I’ve backed. Don’t actually fancy it, but as you say a saver.

[charlie]

Meetingofthewaters is a boosted 13/2 in WH specials.
Best price is 6/1 on the exchange and 5/1 at bookies.

I've reluctantly just backed it as a bit of a 'saver' and want others to as well so I don't feel as pathetic

Pathetic! Is it? Yes, we'll say yes then.

The Goffer case is sound but I really dont like the fav. Everyone talks about WPM not having had a handicap chase winner at the festival which on its own puts me off but if you analysed that stat respective to the shorter prices they probably go off because its WPM it makes it even worse!

The obvious winner is Stumptown IMO. That run LTO at cheltenham was easy and the blinkers have sorted out wayward jumping. GC knows

[Kevloaf]

Danny Gilligan claiming 3 off Run Wild Fred

Always interested in whatever Gordon has in a handicap and claims off

Assumed so big on the exchanges because he wasn't running but jocked up on BHA so wil lsurely go off shorter?

[jrjr]

Question, if a horse is jocked up on the BHA site does that mean it is an intended runner? I ask because Shakem Uparry has Ben Jones listed for the Ultima which would surprise me.

[kinloch brae]

Question, if a horse is jocked up on the BHA site does that mean it is an intended runner? I ask because Shakem Uparry has Ben Jones listed for the Ultima which would surprise me.

Not at all surprised that Jones has retained the ride, but surprised it's in this race. Not sure why they feel the need to go up in trip.

[Exar Essay]

Question, if a horse is jocked up on the BHA site does that mean it is an intended runner? I ask because Shakem Uparry has Ben Jones listed for the Ultima which would surprise me.

No. Some trainers jock them all up regardless. So Jack Tudor is on Jamaico in two races for example. Obviously he’ll only be declared in one.

[FinalFurlong91]

Question, if a horse is jocked up on the BHA site does that mean it is an intended runner? I ask because Shakem Uparry has Ben Jones listed for the Ultima which would surprise me.

Likely runner but not a guaranteed runner

[Quevega]

Likely runner but not a guaranteed runner

Yep, 120's on exchange day before race.

Also no one wanting to back a Mullins/Mcmanus favourite in Meetingofthewaters on the exchange the day before decs ??

[jrjr]

Another slightly technical question.. will obv find out tomorrow but I’m sure someone reading this will know the answer.

can a horse be declared in two races? Eg, Apple Away. Can Lucinda declare in the Ultima and NHC or would she have to pick the Ultima and forgo the NHC if she didn’t make the 24.

Similarly, if she declares Giovinco and Apple Away then AA gets in can she withdraw G and still enter him for one of the novice chases?

[DenmanSacre]

Another slightly technical question.. will obv find out tomorrow but I’m sure someone reading this will know the answer.

can a horse be declared in two races? Eg, Apple Away. Can Lucinda declare in the Ultima and NHC or would she have to pick the Ultima and forgo the NHC if she didn’t make the 24.

Similarly, if she declares Giovinco and Apple Away then AA gets in can she withdraw G and still enter him for one of the novice chases?

They'll leave the decision late and see how many declare in the Ultima as you can see the decs live. She can declare for the Ultima and if balloted out, declare for a race later in the week. Giovinco can't be declared for the Ultima at the deadline, pull out and then declare in the BANC or Turners.

[Bayoffreedom]

Cobden booked, as it stands, for Trelawne - interesting.