The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

[Odin]

I can see him running a huge race and in pure handicapping terms you may well be right that he's the best handicapped horse in the race, but he's obviously totally exposed and there just has to be one or two further down who have enough in hand.
A Frodon win will be a trendsbuster on so many levels, but wouldn't it be fantastic for racing if he were to win, and a one-two with Lostintralation even better...

Interestingly, the quote you've given is where I say he's not the best handicapped horse in the race as I'm not sure he is. Death Duty could be, as could Floueur with a handy claimer, Kiltealy Briggs for the sponsors or Vintage Clouds (who I think has a stone in hand on peak form, but there are doubts as to whether he's anywhere near that now). I just think he can make the race be run so he is by getting all the lower class animals out of their comfort zones.

Either way, would be brilliant for racing if he won - and it would be one hell of a fair cop to Nicholls who we've said has shied away from many a fight. How many times can we say there's an actual Grade 1 horse in a handicap these days though?

[Bonjers]

If he's on a going day, he's going to have a lot of these out of their comfort zones very quickly indeed. I'd imagine Gordon may be up for sacrificing one of his to try and avoid giving him a freebie.

[Studfarm254]

The more I look at the ultima now, the more I think I’ve had my antepost strategy completely wrong this year. I’ve only been focussing on the English horses as seen this race like a gentleman’s agreement were the Irish gift this 1 to England for the craic. Looking back at last year, the Irish only had 2 horses in the race, the previous year only 1. This year they have 7 and can make a case for all of them. With 5 or 6 of the English horses now having to run out of handicap, the Irish hand for this is stronger than ever. Definitely going to get stuck into 2 or 3 once the 7 places is up.

[FinalFurlong91]

The irish will win it this time for me

Floueur the obvious one time to dig through the others

[opatcho]

Tea Clipper for me @ 33/1 ew
- 3rd in coral cup, 3rd at Aintree with Rachael Blackmore on board
- will enjoy the going
- if I recall, you need at least 3 runs to enter this race, so ran in Kauto Star over soft ground to get in
- only 4lbs more than hurdling mark
- small yard, but running at a 31% strike rate atm
- since had a wind op and has pieces on for the first time

I'll have two selections in this, one novice (Tea Clipper) and one more experience horse

[ToniC]

The irish will win it this time for me

Floueur the obvious one time to dig through the others

Have a watch of doctor duffys last race. First time over fences in about 18 months, by the time he unseated maybe he was just starting to flag a little bit, but it was 3m4 on heavy that day, and he was absolutely cruising for a long way. 33/1 with 7 places seems nice. As you say though can make a case for loads. Ben Dundee, discordantly, floueuer etc none without a chance

[Folski]

Tea Clipper for me @ 33/1 ew
- 3rd in coral cup, 3rd at Aintree with Rachael Blackmore on board
- will enjoy the going
- if I recall, you need at least 3 runs to enter this race, so ran in Kauto Star over soft ground to get in
- only 4lbs more than hurdling mark
- small yard, but running at a 31% strike rate atm
- since had a wind op and has pieces on for the first time

I'll have two selections in this, one novice (Tea Clipper) and one more experience horse

Had no idea he was that price as I had this narrowed down to a VC repeat and him.

[Hurricane fly]

I've never backed Frodon to win a race, so he has cost me fortunes (including drunkenly laying him when he won the Ryanair)

However I could get behind him winning this, would any of them get within 10 lengths of Leopardstown win? I'd think 4/5th of the field would be pulled up at best.

I think I've written on here before about how I believe there is an issue with the way handicappers are rated vs grade 1 horses and as much as I hate to admit it around Cheltenham he is a grade 1 animal. Horses are quickly raised for winning a couple of handicap, since he came 2nd in his last handicap race he has won 7 grade 1s including 3 at Cheltenham and is running of the same mark!

The "grade 1 animal in a handicap" is actually staring us in the face.

[Istabraq]

Interestingly, the quote you've given is where I say he's not the best handicapped horse in the race as I'm not sure he is. Death Duty could be, as could Floueur with a handy claimer, Kiltealy Briggs for the sponsors or Vintage Clouds (who I think has a stone in hand on peak form, but there are doubts as to whether he's anywhere near that now). I just think he can make the race be run so he is by getting all the lower class animals out of their comfort zones.

Either way, would be brilliant for racing if he won - and it would be one hell of a fair cop to Nicholls who we've said has shied away from many a fight. How many times can we say there's an actual Grade 1 horse in a handicap these days though?

Yes apologies, I misread your message.
In terms of actual form he would have a huge chance, clearly that Down Royal win reads well even if the opposition were't fully wound up, he was another victim of the brutal King George pace and who knows what might have happened on his debut trip to Leopardstown.
I might have to back him but in full knowledge there's bound to be something lurking down the handicap that might pick him up.
FinalFurlong91 may well be right with Flouer, has the profile that is likely to fit...

[Kevloaf]

So Vintage Clouds won this last year carrying 10 stone 11 lbs, and this year runs with 10 stone 6 lbs on his back.

22/1 boosted with WH.
7 places.
BOG



Cheers Frodon.

Was already on, but 7 places for him to run to last years form.... a few may be well in, but not 7 better than him?

[Stormez]

I've never backed Frodon to win a race, so he has cost me fortunes (including drunkenly laying him when he won the Ryanair)

However I could get behind him winning this, would any of them get within 10 lengths of Leopardstown win? I'd think 4/5th of the field would be pulled up at best.

I think I've written on here before about how I believe there is an issue with the way handicappers are rated vs grade 1 horses and as much as I hate to admit it around Cheltenham he is a grade 1 animal. Horses are quickly raised for winning a couple of handicap, since he came 2nd in his last handicap race he has won 7 grade 1s including 3 at Cheltenham and is running of the same mark!

The "grade 1 animal in a handicap" is actually staring us in the face.

I’m the same, have never backed him. Don’t think I’ve ever seen a race I thought he would win always underestimate him.

Also cost my mate a fortune as he’d backed him big for the King George & I told him he had 0% chance of winning so he laid it off

[Odin]

So Vintage Clouds won this last year carrying 10 stone 11 lbs, and this year runs with 10 stone 6 lbs on his back.

22/1 boosted with WH.
7 places.
BOG



Cheers Frodon.

Was already on, but 7 places for him to run to last years form.... a few may be well in, but not 7 better than him?

100% agree with this although I'm hoping he's first 5 for my antepost bets!

[FinalFurlong91]

Frodon has a C&D win off 164 in the bank already too

I'm struggling to get past floueur of the irish runners

Ben Dundee looks like he will run well but not sure he has much up his sleeve off 147

Noble yeats is a very average jumper

Foxy Jack's jumps right

Discordantly got his win last time doesn't look the type to back it up

Doctor Duffy is trained by Charles byrnes so impossible to form an opinion on based on form

Death Duty isnt a novice and is 11, i prefer backing unexposed novices myself

At this stage the two I like are Our Power and Floueur

[Zachx02]

Frodon has a C&D win off 164 in the bank already too

I'm struggling to get past floueur of the irish runners

Ben Dundee looks like he will run well but not sure he has much up his sleeve off 147

Noble yeats is a very average jumper

Foxy Jack's jumps right

Discordantly got his win last time doesn't look the type to back it up

Doctor Duffy is trained by Charles byrnes so impossible to form an opinion on based on form

Death Duty isnt a novice and is 11, i prefer backing unexposed novices myself

At this stage the two I like are Our Power and Floueur

Also like Our Power, the way he came bolting up the straight at Kempton first time at 3 miles was quite eye catching

[FinalFurlong91]

Also like Our Power, the way he came bolting up the straight at Kempton first time at 3 miles was quite eye catching

I backed him that day and felt he was deliberately not put in the race which is probably pocket talking

I'm hoping it was a fact finding mission to see if he stays to aim for a strong tilt at this

I will probably also back frodon just because he's a legend but that's a heart bet not a head bet