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Wouldn’t put it past Gordon this year. He wouldn’t normally target it, but he’s going all out for top trainer so wouldn’t make sense to punt on this race.
Its not like he hasn’t got a load of well handicapped staying chasers to split between here & the Kim Muir!
Only 2 of the 16 runners last year were Irish.
2 from 23 the year before.
No doubt there were years with more Irish runners before that I’m sure. But very dangerous to just rule the Irish out as a whole.From the initial entry stage it does look like this year there may be more interest.
Their chances would go up a fair bit if their percentage of runners in the race are wasn’t so low. Which may not be the case this year.
Its a race that the British do well in, and importantly have still done well in over the recent Irish dominated period - mostly for Mullins not fussed with handicap chasers and Elliott treating the race far lower than the likes of the Kim Muir etc
Only 2 of the 16 runners last year were Irish.
2 from 23 the year before.
No doubt there were years with more Irish runners before that I’m sure. But very dangerous to just rule the Irish out as a whole.From the initial entry stage it does look like this year there may be more interest.
Their chances would go up a fair bit if their percentage of runners in the race are wasn’t so low. Which may not be the case this year.
Its a race that the British do well in, and importantly have still done well in over the recent Irish dominated period - mostly for Mullins not fussed with handicap chasers and Elliott treating the race far lower than the likes of the Kim Muir etc
Ireland still have a better place rate than gb! If there was something I fancied I wouldn’t be put off on the day/NRNB. But dangerous game antepost as you point out history shows = unlikely to run.
No idea but it hasn't happened for over 20 years so it ain't just bad luck is it ???
More than happy to strike them on that basis.
What happened 20 to 10 years ago is pretty moot though isn't it?
Not logical or accepting that trends may change. IMO it's just a lazy trend for lazy punters to roll out.
Ignoring a Gordon Elliott horse in a Cheltenham handicap, because Irish trainers 20 years ago didn't win the race? It's only been in the last few years the tables have swung....
This year is patently different. You could pretty much rule out an Irish win most years just by looking at the initial entries. This year I'd say the race is more likely to be won by and Irish horse than a UK horse. Probably a Gordon Elliott horse who looks like he has targeted it this year pretty much for the first time.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
This year is patently different. You could pretty much rule out an Irish win most years just by looking at the initial entries. This year I'd say the race is more likely to be won by and Irish horse than a UK horse. Probably a Gordon Elliott horse who looks like he has targeted it this year pretty much for the first time.
If floueur remains in after not making the kim muir that would be a big signal from Gordon
The Irish went 29 consecutive runnings without winning the Kim Muir but have now won 5 of the last 8 including the last three. This has coincided with the increase in their fire power (and also their access to the best amateurs). The Ultima is a poor relation to the Irish Grand National so well handicapped Irish staying chasers will generally be aimed at the latter as a preference. However such is the depth of their talent pool at the moment that it will hardly be surprising if they start to target the Ultima as they have done the Kim Muir in recent years. There is a tendency when following trends to look for "easy" routes to rule out a lot of runners and this has been such a way in recent years - I would be wary of doing so given the current position of the talent pool.
Gordon often has at least 1 lively runner, but from what I can see it still looks likely the runners will be light on Irish again this year.
I'll be surprised if there's more than 4 or 5, and most likely 3 or 4.
Gordon often has at least 1 lively runner, but from what I can see it still looks likely the runners will be light on Irish again this year.
I'll be surprised if there's more than 4 or 5, and most likely 3 or 4.
Only 7, 5 and 3 runners in each of the last 3 kim muirs but they still won them all!
I've now decided to come round Our power, the more I look at this race the more I think from its last run it will suit Our power I think and a mark of 136 for this is perfect for it. Death duty I'm not sure myself why its as low as it is in the betting, I just think Death duty should be going to another race and not this one. Mark 144 ain't bad but for this race I just don't see the horse winning myself. But Our power at 16/1 I'm starting to come round to it.
I've now decided to come round Our power, the more I look at this race the more I think from its last run it will suit Our power I think and a mark of 136 for this is perfect for it. Death duty I'm not sure myself why its as low as it is in the betting, I just think Death duty should be going to another race and not this one. Mark 144 ain't bad but for this race I just don't see the horse winning myself. But Our power at 16/1 I'm starting to come round to it.
I'm on both of those. Interested to know why you don't see Death Duty winning. What puts you off him in particular?
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to just rule them all out.
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