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The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

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  • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
    Cloudy Glen 33-1 NRNB for this is a gift for anyone still sulking about Galahad.
    Ladbrokes and coral - can be boosted.

    front end of the market is full of shitty over rated horses and ones that won't run.
    A Ladbroke winner as well.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Bestmate 79 View Post
      Just listened to Bryony Frost talking about Frodon , and that they’ve won off 164 before and that they would run if he was right and the ground was right . 16/1 NRNB good ew value ? Surely won’t be that price on the day if it does turn up .
      Just backed him, they seem keen on running him here and he should go off fav if he lines up. He will have top weight, but he's a decent grade 1 horse who likes Cheltenham, personally think this is worth a decent each way bet with NRNB.



      The three-time Grade 1 winner has run five times at the festival, including his victory in the Ryanair Chase in 2019, but was a notable absentee from the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup entries which were released in January.

      Last seen in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown, the ten-year-old is rated 164 ahead of a possible Ultima tilt, with trainer Paul Nicholls remaining undecided over whether the King George winner will run in March.

      "I was just looking through the cards on Sunday evening and thought let's just stick him in and have a look," Nicholls said. "It's three weeks away still and he's on the same mark he won a handicap off at the track last season. I felt it might be easier putting him in a handicap at this stage than running in the Gold Cup.

      "It doesn't mean he will definitely run but we'll see. If we were happy he was 100 per cent fit and well and the ground was right then he could run, he's not in there just as a placeholder. It's taken him a fortnight to get over Ireland but he's back to life now and he's got three weeks, so it's possible."

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      • Frodon running in the race would mess it right up for those at the bottom. They'd all be running out of the handicap wouldn't they ?

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        • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
          Frodon running in the race would mess it right up for those at the bottom. They'd all be running out of the handicap wouldn't they ?
          Frodon rated 164 so bottom weight (assuming full range) would run off 138. Race hasn't filled in 2 of the last 6 years but the bottom weight in the other 4 was 129(2020), 140 (2019), 134 (2017) and 131 (2016). So its possible that a few at the very bottom might be between 1 and 7lb out of the handicap. I estimate that about 60 of the current 82 entries will get a mark of 138 or above so might not be too many out of the handicap this year.

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          • Thanks Buck. The one I like is on 137 so has a chance of getting in maybe and only with 1lb OW ??

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            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
              Thanks Buck. The one I like is on 137 so has a chance of getting in maybe and only with 1lb OW ??
              The one you like is one I'll be all over on the place markets. Needs a bit of luck in running with the number of prominent runners if they continue holding him up for the win, but I do like him a lot for a top 4 finish.

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              • There's been lots of unexposed horses come to this race never having run, or recorded best RPRs over 3m & they've all failed. We have this every year posters putting up 2/2.4m horses and its the same answer every year.

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                • Originally posted by Bestmate 79 View Post
                  Just listened to Bryony Frost talking about Frodon , and that they’ve won off 164 before and that they would run if he was right and the ground was right . 16/1 NRNB good ew value ? Surely won’t be that price on the day if it does turn up .
                  He's another little warrior everyone loves so yeh defo be a fair bit shorter on the day. Love cheering him on so im in on the 16s NRNB.

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                  • 8 entries for Gordon.
                    Looks like he’s going to have a serious crack at the Ultima this time.
                    Floueur could be the one.

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                    • Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                      8 entries for Gordon.
                      Looks like he’s going to have a serious crack at the Ultima this time.
                      Floueur could be the one.
                      A lot of them I think nailed on to go elsehwere, this would absolutely be the logical target for floueueueur if he’s too high for the Kim muir which seems possible. Him and coko beach to come here I’d think? If coko beach does travel over that is. This also death duty’s only entry strangely.

                      braside in the 4 miler, GP plate, frontal assault km, fakir D’Alene plate/km, fury road rsa?

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                      • Originally posted by ToniC View Post

                        A lot of them I think nailed on to go elsehwere, this would absolutely be the logical target for floueueueur if he’s too high for the Kim muir which seems possible. Him and coko beach to come here I’d think? If coko beach does travel over that is. This also death duty’s only entry strangely.

                        braside in the 4 miler, GP plate, frontal assault km, fakir D’Alene plate/km, fury road rsa?
                        Coko running this weekend I think

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                        • Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                          Floueur could be the one.
                          Is this one not better heading to the Kim Muir ?

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                          • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                            Is this one not better heading to the Kim Muir ?
                            He definitely will if he sneaks in on the ratings

                            Currently 141 irish so could go either way

                            Gordon will surely save a few of his for the irish national given the prize money is way way bigger than the Cheltenham handicaps

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                            • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                              He definitely will if he sneaks in on the ratings

                              Currently 141 irish so could go either way

                              Gordon will surely save a few of his for the irish national given the prize money is way way bigger than the Cheltenham handicaps
                              Is there any obvious reason why he’d be given more than 4lb tax ?
                              I assumed 143/144, could easily be wrong of course…

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                              • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                                Is there any obvious reason why he’d be given more than 4lb tax ?
                                I assumed 143/144, could easily be wrong of course…
                                Itll be borderline

                                Hed be unlucky to get 146 though as its not like he's been hidden

                                Hes won and then run well in the national trial (was cruising before a couple of poor jumps)

                                Im expecting 144-145

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