The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Quevega]

The reason I think she would have a shout in the triumph by the way, I mentioned the other day.
With her allowance this puts her at 143, and I think the UK handicapper has put Hello Neighbour around the 145 mark, and I know he has put East India Dock up to 146.
I think Galileo Dame, who is set to run in the triumph will be rated 137 (144 with allowance)

It's why the 16-1 vs 4-1 Galileo vs Hello N seems out of sync.
Value on offer here

[Quevega]

Thanks mate. I’m gonna demonstrate some discipline and keep it at one I think

You can give me some advice on that aspect at some point.

[Studfarm254]

You may be right but it could also easily be the case that there are others with even more in hand . Her job is to not run ahead of her mark but do it by more than every other horse. So can I ask your very impressive gut whether it is confident that nothing else has more in hand and if so why? Preferably by referencing others in the race and why you believe they don’t have as much in hand

All 4 of the JP horses are interesting. It’s the Fred winter so obviously I can’t say she’s 100% winning lol. That’s why you back each way when most bookies are paying 5 places. My gut is telling me she’ll run very well and be in the 1st 3 home with a good chance of winning.

[Eggs]

….Elliott;

’Wendrock goes here, but looks badly handicapped. The handicapper didn’t miss him.’

[archie]

With the rider that I hate this race and would bin it in the blink of an eye, looking at the 14 horses at 20/1 or less, we have a contest between ex-flat and ex-French that I have chosen to rate in 2 ways.

With ex-flat we can check the difference in OR for flat and NH. Rule of thumb was about 45 uplift from flat to NH but possibly less for young horses. On this measure best in are Hot Fuss and Lavender Hill Mob at +29 and +25 respectively.

For ex-French, the easiest comparator is best RPR as this can also be applied to the ex-flat and also shows directly in the race RPRs. Here we have
OR - best RPR (lower means better chance)
3 Stencil
7 Out For A Stroll
8 Hot Fuss
8 Murcia
8 Total Look

Based on that I'd probably go for Hot Fuss each way at 16/1, particularly as his prep run was on the flat, presumably with the aim of protecting the hurdle mark. It seems that he acts on good or soft ground swhich may not be true of some of those shorter in the betting, particularly the ex-French. Just needs to make the cut now!

[ComplyOrDie]

The race this year is called The Hallgarten and Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, looking at Oddschecker, another mouthful of a race

[Istabraq]

The race this year is called The Hallgarten and Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, looking at Oddschecker, another mouthful of a race

I blame the BHA for allowing races to be named by sponsors.
Each race should be named by their official title, followed by 'sponsored by.....'
This race is the Fred Winter, very few call it the Fred Winter...

[archie]

darlojim will know better than I but does the potential dry weather and g/s going put the ex-French at a disadvantage? Most of their form is on soft or worse so it does add another unknown into the mix whereas the ex-flat would tend to have encountered better ground.

[darlojim]

darlojim will know better than I but does the potential dry weather and g/s going put the ex-French at a disadvantage? Most of their form is on soft or worse so it does add another unknown into the mix whereas the ex-flat would tend to have encountered better ground.

I'm sure theres far better people than myself to give a good answer on that Archie, but they're not going to let the ground be 'good' are they, so can't imagine too many will be affected by this. In my mind, the good ones will nearly always come to the fore regardless of ground, yes I know there are horses that are strictly better on a sound surface or one with plenty of cut, but I wouldn't be making too many excuses in that respect.

Having a quick scan back, Gaelic was only just beat the day the ground was described as rattling, and since he has been described as one much better with give in the ground.

One thing is though, it's really hard to accurately predict the ground that they're actually racing on in FR. I've seen days where its looked like an absolute quagmire yet they describe it soft and other days with bright sunshine and kicking minimal amounts up and they call it heavy. Lets not forget that plenty of these FR types run in the Spring over there too where the ground can be lively enough.

[JackieMoon33]

With the rider that I hate this race and would bin it in the blink of an eye, looking at the 14 horses at 20/1 or less, we have a contest between ex-flat and ex-French that I have chosen to rate in 2 ways.

With ex-flat we can check the difference in OR for flat and NH. Rule of thumb was about 45 uplift from flat to NH but possibly less for young horses. On this measure best in are Hot Fuss and Lavender Hill Mob at +29 and +25 respectively.

For ex-French, the easiest comparator is best RPR as this can also be applied to the ex-flat and also shows directly in the race RPRs. Here we have
OR - best RPR (lower means better chance)
3 Stencil
7 Out For A Stroll
8 Hot Fuss
8 Murcia
8 Total Look

Based on that I'd probably go for Hot Fuss each way at 16/1, particularly as his prep run was on the flat, presumably with the aim of protecting the hurdle mark. It seems that he acts on good or soft ground swhich may not be true of some of those shorter in the betting, particularly the ex-French. Just needs to make the cut now!

Does the '+45' uplift for flat to NH work in reverse too?
I've always found it a strange measure myself.

[Quevega]

Does the '+45' uplift for flat to NH work in reverse too?
I've always found it a strange measure myself.

It's also randomly similar to the 45p per mile car mileage system, that has been the same for fucking ages. Even though average car running costs have risen a fair bit.

[archie]

Does the '+45' uplift for flat to NH work in reverse too?
I've always found it a strange measure myself.

It's only a rule of thumb and, as I said, for young horses improving at different rates it's probably less reliable. However, whatever the uplift, Hot Fuss and Lavender Hill Mob would still come out best of those with a flat mark, just by different amounts.

[Burrough Hill Man]

Hi guys,
First post and very excited to be part of the forum and I hope I can contribute in a positive way.
I've looked and looked at this race trying to find value as with the history of winners in the past 10 years it might be the best ploy.
SOLAR DRIVE at 40/1 jumps out at me if you take a line through the form of Slurricane.
In Oct he was 2nd to Action Plan (gave 6lbs and had earlier beaten him off levels) Slurricane was 3 1/4L back in 3rd. SD gave him 13lbs.
NTO Slurricane was 2nd to Beyond your Dreams only beaten 3/4L off levels.
Slurricane won lto beating Out For A Stroll 1 1/4L (got 4lbs) and Total Look was a further 3/4L back in 3rd (gave 15lbs).
I know certain horses are running looking to protect marks but given the evidence the price has tempted me.

[Black Dog]

Hi guys,
First post and very excited to be part of the forum and I hope I can contribute in a positive way.
I've looked and looked at this race trying to find value as with the history of winners in the past 10 years it might be the best ploy.
SOLAR DRIVE at 40/1 jumps out at me if you take a line through the form of Slurricane.
In Oct he was 2nd to Action Plan (gave 6lbs and had earlier beaten him off levels) Slurricane was 3 1/4L back in 3rd. SD gave him 13lbs.
NTO Slurricane was 2nd to Beyond your Dreams only beaten 3/4L off levels.
Slurricane won lto beating Out For A Stroll 1 1/4L (got 4lbs) and Total Look was a further 3/4L back in 3rd (gave 15lbs).
I know certain horses are running looking to protect marks but given the evidence the price has tempted me.

Welcome aboard, I think I knew you when you were a lad.

[chunker86]

Ephesus was rated 91 on the flat for Aidan OBrien and goes off 121 in this.
He's run in all the right prep races.

Imagine he'll drift out to 40/1 + on the day with extra places but one I'll be playing if he makes the cut.