The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[JackieMoon33]

Iv always had the opinion with juveniles that nh sires do not in general breed precocity and this a trait thats relevant in juveniles, combined with strength. Its a bit of a minefield for me too tho.

I'd say its variable on NH sires as some can get sharp 3yo. I think where they are bred plays as much as a role too as in France they're in training and jumping much earlier than UK/IRE.

[Quevega]

Definitely been popular with Flat breds for sure but it seems like there are more sprint sires popping up this year.

When it was the last race on the Wednesday you could see why the quicker types might have done well.
Dryer ground, old course.
Think Fast Company was a trend at one point.
Is fastnet rock related through a sprinter.

[JackieMoon33]

When it was the last race on the Wednesday you could see why the quicker types might have done well.
Dryer ground, old course.
Think Fast Company was a trend at one point.
Is fastnet rock related through a sprinter.

Sounds like I could be reading too much into it then. At first glance it seemed like more sprint sires are popping up this year but they have some form in the past.

[ComplyOrDie]

ComplyOrDie - I was looking through the Boodles market last night to see if I could narrow down a selection. I gave up in the end but one thing I noticed was the amount of very questionable pedigrees this year.

As a bettor who significantly weights pedigree in his selection process and backs multiple runners in races, what's the thought process that these flat pedigrees, with sprint sires in most cases, are worthwhile options from a pedigree point of view?

None of these horses have even a whiff of NH substance too them yet they're reasonably prominent in the market. They've obviously done well on the track to be positioned where they are in the market, but I came away scratching my head in the end.

Horse	Market Pos.	Odds	Sire	Dam	Damsire
Galileo Dame	5th	11/1	1m	10f	10f
Naturally Nimble	6th	12/1	7f	6f	6f
Bacchanalian	7th	14/1	1m	1m	6f
Puturhandstogether	8th	14/1	6f	n/a	12f
Beyond Your Dreams	10th	16/1	5.5f	n/a	12f
Lavender Hill Mob	14th	20/1	1m	10f	12f
Holy See	18th	25/1	1m	6f	6f

image.png

Sorry mate, been away for a couple of days with the family so hadn't seen this until late last night.

I don't put as much emphasis on the pedigree for this race. It can come down to stamina or speed, IMO. Looking at past winners you have a variety of sires progeny winning the race. I wouldn't be looking for out and out NH sires.

Hallowed Crown (5.5f-1m) & Fast Company (7f) are probably the obvious sires to have had winners who wouldn't necessarily be deemed as stamina laden. I also would add weight on the dams side of things, the damsire for example, you've got Beyond Your Dreams by a 5-6f sire yet the damsire you're looking at is Galileo. I do believe this has an influence. The sire, despite being a 5-6f horse himself, has actually produced some fair horses as 2m hurdlers too (Bedrock & last seasons County Hurdle winner, Absurde) so I'd take this into account also. As you've probably already seen, and the top two on ratings for this sire are the Fastnet Rock x Galileo combination as well, the same as Beyond Your Dreams.

I would much prefer a horse with more stamina in a Triumph as opposed to a Boodles, and believe it's very much dependent on how the Boodles is run on the day to determine what is required to win. I've not done the timings on previous races, so I can't back this up, but this is how I always view it. This is something we can't know, which is why I tend to back a mixture of horses, although this is not solely pedigree led. Weights are also a factor. I liken to Triumph to a Supreme, almost an end to end gallop.

Murcia is the one I'm really keen on this season. That said, Willie is still yet to win the race and Gaelic Warrior was supremely well in when he run in it and still didn't manage to win. Murcia is well found in the market and likely at the weights too, so I could be barking up the wrong tree.

A have a fair few I like, though she would be my top pick right now.

[JackieMoon33]

Sorry mate, been away for a couple of days with the family so hadn't seen this until late last night.

I don't put as much emphasis on the pedigree for this race. It can come down to stamina or speed, IMO. Looking at past winners you have a variety of sires progeny winning the race. I wouldn't be looking for out and out NH sires.

Hallowed Crown (5.5f-1m) & Fast Company (7f) are probably the obvious sires to have had winners who wouldn't necessarily be deemed as stamina laden. I also would add weight on the dams side of things, the damsire for example, you've got Beyond Your Dreams by a 5-6f sire yet the damsire you're looking at is Galileo. I do believe this has an influence. The sire, despite being a 5-6f horse himself, has actually produced some fair horses as 2m hurdlers too (Bedrock & last seasons County Hurdle winner, Absurde) so I'd take this into account also. As you've probably already seen, and the top two on ratings for this sire are the Fastnet Rock x Galileo combination as well, the same as Beyond Your Dreams.

I would much prefer a horse with more stamina in a Triumph as opposed to a Boodles, and believe it's very much dependent on how the Boodles is run on the day to determine what is required to win. I've not done the timings on previous races, so I can't back this up, but this is how I always view it. This is something we can't know, which is why I tend to back a mixture of horses, although this is not solely pedigree led. Weights are also a factor. I liken to Triumph to a Supreme, almost an end to end gallop.

Murcia is the one I'm really keen on this season. That said, Willie is still yet to win the race and Gaelic Warrior was supremely well in when he run in it and still didn't manage to win. Murcia is well found in the market and likely at the weights too, so I could be barking up the wrong tree.

A have a fair few I like, though she would be my top pick right now.

Agreed, I think pedigree needs to be ignored to an extent in this race. After looking through this race and the previous winners/runners, it would be top of my hitlist in terms of removing races from the festival. Other than being a decent betting heat, it's a stinker of a race and should be binned.

[Hurricane fly]

Gaileo Dame and Bacchanlian both scratched accorinding to twitter

[Eggs]

….post #1 updated with initial entries and trend analysis.

[Eggs]

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2025/February/23/derham-sets-sights-on-fred-winter-prize-with-viyanni

[Hurricane fly]

Watching Bacchanalian win again is a blow but a positive for Murcia

[Kevloaf]

Watching Bacchanalian win again is a blow but a positive for Murcia

Is it a positive for Murcia?

If he'd won after she had a UK mark perhaps, but we'd be really lucky if she gets away without a few extra lbs now?

[ComplyOrDie]

Is it a positive for Murcia?

If he'd won after she had a UK mark perhaps, but we'd be really lucky if she gets away without a few extra lbs now?

She wins anyway

[Kevloaf]

She wins anyway

Not sure

A race I think that something will be 'well in' .... I thought Bacchanalian was, which looks proven now, but unless Murcia gets lucky, she'll be place only at best now

[Kevloaf]

….Mark Howard;


According to the ante-post lists, Closutton’s best hope in 2025 is LADY VEGA ALLEN, who has the pedigree to win at the Festival being a relative of six times winner Quevega.

Previously trained in France by Etienne D’Andigne, who was also responsible for Grade 1 winner and Champion Hurdle runner-up Irish Point, she has raced three times and the Irish handicapper has allocated her a mark of 132, which is six pounds lower than stablemate and compatriot Willy De Houelle.

The pair have already met twice this season in Graded company at Leopardstown, with the filly emerging on top both times. Denied by a short head behind Hello Neighbour in the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle on St Stephen’s Day on her Irish debut, she stayed on strongly after the last with seven lengths back to the third.

Gavin Cromwell’s winner once again got the better of the Saint Des Saints filly in the Grade 1 juvenile at the DRF over the same C&D. Sean O’Keeffe’s mount held every chance at the last before going down by a length and a half in third. It was three lengths back to Willy De Houelle who filled fourth position.

While the temptation may be to have another crack at Hello Neighbour, is it realistic to think she can make it third time lucky?

Depending on what mark the British handicapper allocates her on Tuesday, if it is anything near her Irish rating, Mullins may be tempted to take the ‘softer option’ and head down the handicap route in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle on the opening afternoon. If so, the 10/1 on offer (NRNB William Hill) will look huge on the day.

I don't think anyone would fancy Willy De Houelle still, but this is a good case for him being a relatively rubbish bet compared to LVA?

[Yosser]

Not sure

A race I think that something will be 'well in' .... I thought Bacchanalian was, which looks proven now, but unless Murcia gets lucky, she'll be place only at best now

Right now as we speak, she is slap bang in the Goldilocks zone. She hits all the right trends needed. French Bred, the mark looks ideal as of today (Monday) but the handicapper is certainly going to have his say. I do wonder though if the weights have already been done (you would expect so) would they revise her mark 1 day before because of another horse running yesterday? I expect her to be in the high 130s but it has been done a few times in recent years off that mark. If she hits 140 I will leave her alone but I think she is going to be quite a bit above that in the future. The difference from run 1 and 2 is night and day. She could still run a fair race in the Triumph with the normal improvement. All eyes on tomorrow now, then the serious work begins.

[TonyGalopin]

Right now as we speak, she is slap bang in the Goldilocks zone. She hits all the right trends needed. French Bred, the mark looks ideal as of today (Monday) but the handicapper is certainly going to have his say. I do wonder though if the weights have already been done (you would expect so) would they revise her mark 1 day before because of another horse running yesterday? I expect her to be in the high 130s but it has been done a few times in recent years off that mark. If she hits 140 I will leave her alone but I think she is going to be quite a bit above that in the future. The difference from run 1 and 2 is night and day. She could still run a fair race in the Triumph with the normal improvement. All eyes on tomorrow now, then the serious work begins.

Only real worry trends-wise is fillies not having a great record in the race in the last decade or so. Think Risk Belle is the only one to finish in the first 3 since What a Charm won it in 2011