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The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

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  • The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

    TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 18th


    CHELTENHAM Tuesday, March 11th

    THE BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 1)
    (Registered as the Fred Winter) (Premier Hcap)



    TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 80,000

    Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
    GBP 45,016 to the winning horse
    The second to receive GBP 16,960,
    the third GBP 8,488,
    the fourth GBP 4,240,
    the fifth GBP 2,128,
    the sixth GBP 1,064,
    the seventh GBP 528 and
    the eighth GBP 272

    for juvenile four yrs old

    TWO MILES ABOUT HALF A FURLONG (2m 87yds)

    Enter by noon, February 18th and pay GBP 100 stake
    Confirm by noon, March 5th, and pay GBP 300

    Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 9th
    Weights published on.........February 25th
    Lowest weight...........10st 2lb
    Highest Weight..........11st 12lb

    Penalties, after February 23rd, 2025,
    a winner of a hurdle race.......... 5lb
    (No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)


    PLEASE NOTE: A novice or juvenile horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of three times in Hurdle Races in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code






    2024. Lark In The Mornin 4-11-0 9/1 Joseph O'Brien - JJ Slevin (OR 122)

    2023. Jazzy Matty 4-10-6 18/1 Gordon Elliott - M. O'Sullivan RPR 126 (OR 125)


    2022. Brazil 4-11-9 10/1 P. Roche - Mark Walsh RPR 139 (OR 137)

    2021. Jeff Kidder 4-10-8 80/1 Noel Meade - Sean Flanagan RPR 131 (OR 125)

    2020. Aramax 4-10-12 5/1F Gordon Elliott - Barry Geraghty RPR 138 (OR 138)

    2019. Band Of Outlaws 4-11-8 7/2F Joseph O'Brien - J J Slevin RPR 147 (OR 139)

    2018. Veneer Of Charm 4-11-0 33/1 Gordon Elliott - Jack Kennedy RPR 135 (OR 129)

    2017. Flying Tiger 4-11-5 33/1 Nick Williams - Richard Johnson RPR 137 (OR 134)

    2016. Diego du Charmil 4-11-1 13/2 Paul Nicholls - Sam Twiston-Davies RPR 137 (OR 133)

    2015. Qualando 4-11-0 25/1 Paul Nicholls - Nick Scholfield RPR 133 (OR 131)

    2014. Hawk High 4-11-1 33/1 Tim Easterby - Brian Hughes RPR 130 (OR 130)

    2013. Flaxen Flare 4-10-7 25/1 Gordon Elliott - Davy Condon RPR 140 (OR
    127)



    2024. 1st OR 122, 2nd OR 123, 3rd OR 134, 4th OR 121 (Highest OR 134, Lowest OR 120) 22 ran​
    2023. 1st OR 125, 2nd OR 128, 3rd OR 127, 4th OR 120 (Highest OR 142, Lowest OR 119) 21 ran
    2022. 1st OR 137, 2nd OR 129, 3rd OR 130, 4th OR 131 (Highest OR 137, Lowest OR 124) 21 ran
    2021. 1st OR 125, 2nd OR 139, 3rd OR 124, 4th OR 128 (Highest OR 141, Lowest OR 123) 22 ran
    2020. 1st OR 138, 2nd OR 133, 3rd OR 133, 4th OR 132 (Highest OR 140, Lowest OR 129) 22 ran
    2019. 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 134, 3rd OR 132, 4th OR 129 (Highest OR 141, Lowest OR 129) 21 ran
    2018. 1st OR 129, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 135, 4th OR 132 (Highest OR 139, Lowest OR 129) 22 ran
    2017. 1st OR 134, 2nd OR 139, 3rd OR 130, 4th OR 138 (Highest OR 139, Lowest OR 124) 22 ran
    2016. 1st OR 133, 2nd OR 136, 3rd OR 132, 4th OR 132 (Highest OR 142, Lowest OR 128) 22 ran
    2015. 1st OR 131, 2nd OR 136, 3rd OR 133, 4th OR 136 (Highest OR 141, Lowest OR 129) 22 ran
    2014. 1st OR 130, 2nd OR 130, 3rd OR 127, 4th OR 128 (Highest OR 139, Lowest OR 128) 24 ran



    17 French breds in the first 3 over 9 years, is a big indicator that since the weight range was lifted that trainers are able to source into France to meet the requirements of this race, and buy better horses to run in it.
    -------






    ….2025 TREND ANALYSIS added for reference;

    1) AVOID FAVOURITES?

    The Fred Winter has been no stranger to big-priced winners since its inception in 2013. That is reflected by the trend of there only being one winning favourite in the last 12 renewals. Meanwhile, only four of the victors since 2013 have been found in the top three in the betting.

    Lark In The Mornin was a 9/1 shot when winning the race in 2024, becoming the shortest-priced winner of the race since 2020. Since 2020, Jeff Kidder won at odds of 80/1 in 2021, and Jazzy Matty was an 18/1 winner in 2023.

    2) WEIGHT;
    As a handicap, there is an interesting trend in terms of the most likely preferred weight collocation for the Fred Winter. Nine of the last 12 winners have carried between 10st 6lb and 11st 5lb.

    Brazil produced one of the best weight-carrying performances in 2022 when winning off 11-9. However, two of the last four winners of the race have carried less than 11st.

    3) LAST TIME OUT WINNERS;
    Heading to Cheltenham in winning form isn’t an essential for Fred Winter contenders. Only four of the last 12 winners have won on their previous start before travelling to the Festival. However, the timing of a recent run could be key, with nine of the last 12 winners having lined up within the last 53 days.

    An interesting race of note is the Rated Novice Hurdle at Naas, four runners of the race have competed in that contest, with three winners having followed up at Cheltenham.

    4) HURDLE EXPERIENCE
    Experience over jumps is essential for runners in the Fred Winter. Ten of the victors of the Fred Winter had previous winning experience over obstacles.

    That could bode well for Stencil from the Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm yard.

    5) RATING;
    The ratings also make for key reading before making a Fred Winter selection. Nine of the winners of the race since 2013 have been rated between 122 and 134.

    The only exceptions to this rule were Brazil in 2022 off 137, Aramax off 138 in 2020, and Band of Outlaws in 2019 off 139.


    --------







    Early Entries in the Boodles Juvenile HcapH at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival:
    Last edited by Saxon Warrior; Today, 05:22 PM.
    "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

  • #2
    I had a feeling that Laurel and Hardy would tip up one of Gordon's running in the boodlesmaker race at Fairyhouse this Sunday. I've had a go at both britzka and iberique at 20/1 before the latest episode of UTA.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Guinness Village View Post
      I had a feeling that Laurel and Hardy would tip up one of Gordon's running in the boodlesmaker race at Fairyhouse this Sunday. I've had a go at both britzka and iberique at 20/1 before the latest episode of UTA.
      Interestingly, both run in that race, I'd assumed it would be one or the other...

      Comment


      • #4
        ….Britzka now into a best price 10-1 for this.
        Last edited by Eggs; 7 January 2022, 12:16 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Eggs View Post
          ….Britzka now into a best price 10-1 for this.
          B365 just before and after the upping the ante video went live where both of them tipped Britzka

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Eggs View Post
            ….Britzka now into a best price 10-1 for this.
            Was 20s with B365 for a good few hours.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Post

              Was 20s with B365 for a good few hours.
              ….that’s a severe haircut in 24 hours.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Eggs View Post

                ….that’s a severe haircut in 24 hours.
                Think it was 14/1 in the morning, pushed out to 20s for the video and that didn’t last an hour after the video aired.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Eggs View Post

                  ….that’s a severe haircut in 24 hours.
                  Bit quicker than that.

                  Bet365 were 14/1 opening show for Britzka all week, and Betfair were 20/1 best, with another firm, but with cashout being cancelled soon - I was sitting out for NRNB, hoping for maybe 16s.

                  Then at 5.37pm Betfair pushed out Britzka to 20/1 from 14/1 - presumably having being asked by DJ if they would match the best market price (Gavin still thought it was 14/1 on UTA).

                  So the punt down from 20/1 to 10/1 then didnt start until UTA aired and didnt take long to go into 10s generally and 12s tops with Bet365.

                  Fair play to DJ and Bet365 for creating a window of opportunity at 20/1, even if it wasnt for long, as the firm really were 14/1 until that intervention.
                  "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Eggs View Post
                    ….Britzka now into a best price 10-1 for this.
                    365 pushed it to 20/1 for the show then cut it back in

                    EDIT: sorry, hadn't updated properly before posting. Please feel free to delete this

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      An hour after the video 365 were 16/1 as I backed as a single, I then did an eachway double with a football single around that time at 16/1 and 10/11, not long after bet365 were then 12/1.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        ….Sky have win today & Boodles;

                        Britzka 12-1
                        Iberique de Seuil 50-1

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I might be missing something here as I’m sure you can’t normally do this. But selecting Britzka on todays race (twe boosted 5/4) and then selecting the boodles at 8/1 is allowing you to do the double at a shade over 19/1

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Not sure that would pay out, as it’s a related bet. Bookmaker would probably void the bet.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Magpie View Post
                              Not sure that would pay out, as it’s a related bet. Bookmaker would probably void the bet.
                              Ahh fair enough I did think it was strange that it even allowed it

                              Comment

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