The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Folski]

This is straight from Grok. I basically asked could it look at the performance of horses who had a graded run versus multiple versus none over the last 10 years.

Let’s dive into the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival over the last 10 years (2015–2024) and examine how horses with one graded hurdle run, more than one graded hurdle run, and no graded hurdle runs have performed. The Fred Winter is a Premier Handicap race for four-year-olds over about 2 miles and 87 yards, with eight hurdles, and it’s a unique test given its handicap nature. I’ll analyze the winners and key placers to see how prior graded experience stacks up, focusing on their hurdle form before the race. Since juvenile hurdles in the UK and Ireland often include Listed or Rated Novice races that aren’t always strictly “graded” (Grade 1, 2, or 3), I’ll define “graded” as races classified as Grade 1, 2, or 3, and note where Listed or similar high-level races might blur the lines.

### Methodology
- One Graded Run: Horses with exactly one start in a Grade 1, 2, or 3 hurdle before the Fred Winter.
- More Than One Graded Run: Horses with two or more starts in Grade 1, 2, or 3 hurdles.
- No Graded Runs: Horses with no starts in Grade 1, 2, or 3 hurdles, typically coming from maiden, novice, or handicap hurdles.
- I’ll focus on winners and top-three finishers to gauge success, then summarize trends. All data reflects hurdle starts prior to the Fred Winter in their juvenile season.

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### 2024 (Winner: Lark In The Mornin, 9/1)
- Winner: Lark In The Mornin (Joseph O’Brien) – 3 hurdle starts: 5th in a maiden at Punchestown, 1st in a maiden at Punchestown, 4th in a handicap at Leopardstown. No graded runs. A lightly raced type who improved into the handicap.
- 2nd: Eagles Reign (80/1) – 2 hurdle starts: 1st in a maiden at Limerick, 5th in a handicap at Fairyhouse. No graded runs.
- 3rd: Ndaawi (12/1) – 4 hurdle starts, including 2nd in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse and 1st in a Grade 2 at Doncaster. More than one graded run (two Grade 2s).
- Notes: Milan Tino (10th) had two graded runs (Grade 2s at Auteuil and Cheltenham) but faded. No graded-run horses dominated here.

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### 2023 (Winner: Jazzy Matty, 18/1)
- Winner: Jazzy Matty (Gordon Elliott) – 3 hurdle starts: 1st in a maiden at Fairyhouse, 5th in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown, 4th in a handicap at Leopardstown. One graded run.
- 2nd: Byker (6/1) – 4 hurdle starts, including 3rd and 5th in Grade 2s at Leopardstown. More than one graded run.
- 3rd: Risk Belle (10/1) – 3 hurdle starts, including 2nd in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse. One graded run.
- Notes: A mix of profiles, with the winner having a single graded outing and the runner-up more exposed in graded company.

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### 2022 (Winner: Brazil, 10/1)
- Winner: Brazil (Padraig Roche) – 3 hurdle starts: 2nd in a maiden at Punchestown, 1st in a maiden at Navan, 3rd in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown. One graded run.
- 2nd: Gaelic Warrior (13/8F) – 3 hurdle starts: 2nd and 1st in maidens in France, no UK/Ireland graded runs. No graded runs (French form not graded in this context).
- 3rd: Bell Ex One (28/1) – 4 hurdle starts, no graded runs (all maidens or handicaps). No graded runs.
- Notes: Gaelic Warrior’s French form was strong but not graded by UK/Ireland standards. Brazil’s single graded run paid off.

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### 2021 (Winner: Jeff Kidder, 80/1)
- Winner: Jeff Kidder (Noel Meade) – 4 hurdle starts: 1st in a maiden at Tipperary, 2nd in a novice at Gowran, 6th in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse, 4th at Limerick. One graded run.
- 2nd: Saint Sam (9/2F) – 3 hurdle starts: 1st in a maiden at Punchestown, no graded runs. No graded runs.
- 3rd: Elham Valley (66/1) – 3 hurdle starts: 2nd in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham, only graded outing. One graded run.
- Notes: A longshot winner with one graded run; no-graded-run horses competed well.

---

### 2020 (Winner: Aramax, 15/2)
- Winner: Aramax (Gordon Elliott) – 4 hurdle starts: 2nd and 1st in maidens, 2nd in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown, 1st at Naas (Rated Novice). One graded run. (Naas race not graded.)
- 2nd: Flaxman’s Charm (33/1) – Limited data, but no graded runs noted. No graded runs.
- 3rd: Blacko (12/1) – 3 hurdle starts, including 2nd in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown. One graded run.
- Notes: Aramax’s graded run showed promise; no-graded-run horses again placed.

---

### 2019 (Winner: Band of Outlaws, 7/2F)
- Winner: Band of Outlaws (Joseph O’Brien) – 3 hurdle starts: 1st in a maiden at Limerick, 2nd in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham, 1st at Naas (Rated Novice). One graded run.
- 2nd: Coko Beach (14/1) – 3 hurdle starts, including 3rd in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. One graded run.
- 3rd: Ciel de Neige (17/2) – 3 hurdle starts, no graded runs (French form). No graded runs.
- Notes: Single graded-run horses took the top two; no-graded profile still placed.

---

### 2018 (Winner: Veneer of Charm, 33/1)
- Winner: Veneer of Charm (Gordon Elliott) – 4 hurdle starts: 2nd and 1st in maidens, 8th in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown, 3rd at Gowran. One graded run.
- 2nd: Stylish Dancer (50/1) – Limited data, but no graded runs apparent. No graded runs.
- 3rd: Mitchouka (10/1) – 4 hurdle starts, no graded runs (all maidens or novices). No graded runs.
- Notes: One graded run worked for the winner; no-graded horses filled the frame.

---

### 2017 (Winner: Flying Tiger, 33/1)
- Winner: Flying Tiger (Nick Williams) – 3 hurdle starts: 2nd in a maiden at Chepstow, 1st in a novice at Warwick, 2nd in a Grade 2 at Doncaster. One graded run.
- 2nd: Divin Bere (9/2) – 3 hurdle starts: 1st in novices, no graded runs. No graded runs.
- 3rd: Nietzsche (12/1) – 3 hurdle starts: 1st and 2nd in novices, no graded runs. No graded runs.
- Notes: One graded run for the winner; no-graded profiles strong in placings.

---

### 2016 (Winner: Diego Du Charmil, 13/2)
- Winner: Diego Du Charmil (Paul Nicholls) – 2 hurdle starts: 1st in a maiden in France, 1st in a novice at Musselburgh (Listed, not graded). No graded runs.
- 2nd: Romain de Senam (8/1) – 3 hurdle starts: 1st in maidens, no graded runs. No graded runs.
- 3rd: Coo Star Sivola (16/1) – 3 hurdle starts: 2nd in a Grade 2 at Warwick. One graded run.
- Notes: No graded runs for the winner; one-graded profile in third.

---

### 2015 (Winner: Qualando, 25/1)
- Winner: Qualando (Paul Nicholls) – 3 hurdle starts: 1st in a maiden at Wincanton, 2nd in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham, 3rd at Newbury. One graded run.
- 2nd: Bouvreuil (14/1) – 2 hurdle starts: 1st in France, no UK graded runs. No graded runs.
- 3rd: The Saint James (14/1) – 2 hurdle starts: 1st in a novice, no graded runs. No graded runs.
- Notes: One graded run for the winner; no-graded horses placed.

---

### Summary of Results (2015–2024)
#### Winners:
- One Graded Run: 8 (Jazzy Matty 2023, Brazil 2022, Jeff Kidder 2021, Aramax 2020, Band of Outlaws 2019, Veneer of Charm 2018, Flying Tiger 2017, Qualando 2015).
- More Than One Graded Run: 0.
- No Graded Runs: 2 (Lark In The Mornin 2024, Diego Du Charmil 2016).

#### Top-Three Finishers (30 total):
- One Graded Run: 12 (40%) – 8 winners + 4 placers (Risk Belle 2023, Elham Valley 2021, Blacko 2020, Coko Beach 2019, Coo Star Sivola 2016).
- More Than One Graded Run: 2 (7%) – 2 placers (Ndaawi 2024, Byker 2023).
- No Graded Runs: 16 (53%) – 2 winners + 14 placers (e.g., Eagles Reign 2024, Gaelic Warrior 2022, Saint Sam 2021).

---

### Contrast and Trends
1. One Graded Run (8 wins, 12 top-three):
- Dominates the winners’ list (80% of victories). These horses typically have a single taste of graded competition (often a Grade 2), showing decent form (e.g., a win or placing), then thrive in the handicap. Examples like Brazil (3rd in a Grade 2) and Band of Outlaws (2nd in a Grade 2) suggest one quality run signals potential without overexposure.
- Handicap marks often benefit from limited graded exposure, keeping weights manageable (e.g., Jazzy Matty off 129, Brazil off 137).

2. More Than One Graded Run (0 wins, 2 top-three):
- Surprisingly weak among winners. Horses like Ndaawi (2024, 3rd) and Byker (2023, 2nd) show competitiveness but haven’t sealed the deal. Multiple graded runs might indicate a horse is either too exposed (higher handicap mark) or not improving enough for the Fred Winter’s unique demands.
- Milan Tino (2024, 10th) and Mighty Mo Missouri (2023, 10th) had two graded runs each and faded, possibly overcooked or overrated by the handicapper.

3. No Graded Runs (2 wins, 16 top-three):
- Strong in placings (53% of top-three finishes), with Lark In The Mornin (2024) and Diego Du Charmil (2016) proving unexposed horses can strike. These winners often come from maiden or novice wins, sneaking under the radar with lower marks (e.g., Lark In The Mornin off 128).
- Placers like Gaelic Warrior (2022) and Saint Sam (2021) suggest freshness and handicap leniency help, though consistency in winning is lower than the one-graded group.

---

### Key Insights
- One Graded Run is the Sweet Spot: Eight of ten winners had exactly one graded outing, blending proven ability with room for improvement. This profile hits a balance—enough quality to compete, but not so much exposure that the handicapper catches up.
- More Than One Graded Run Struggles: No winners and only two placings in ten years suggest overexposure in graded races might burden horses with higher weights or sap their progression. They place occasionally but lack the edge to win.
- No Graded Runs Holds Value: Two winners and a majority of placings show untested horses can capitalize on lighter campaigns or favorable marks. They’re less predictable but often overperform relative to expectations (e.g., Jeff Kidder at 80/1 had one graded run, but Lark In The Mornin at 9/1 had none).

### Conclusion
Over the last decade, horses with one graded run have been the most successful in the Fred Winter, winning 80% of the time, likely due to a perfect mix of experience and handicap advantage. No graded runs produces a solid chunk of placers and occasional winners, reflecting the race’s openness to unexposed talent. More than one graded run is the weakest profile, with no winners and rare placings, hinting that too much high-level racing beforehand might hinder success in this handicap. For punters, targeting horses with a single graded run—or those completely untested in graded company—seems the sharpest angle. Want to explore specific handicap marks or prep races next?

[Kevloaf]

Can you ask it to give us the shortlist then so I don't have to do it myself?

Enjoyed the read

[Alexmilton]

Great read, do us all a favour and just ask it for a life changing Yankee for each day

[Folski]

Can you ask it to give us the shortlist then so I don't have to do it myself?

Enjoyed the read

It seems to be much better with historical data than current data from the few things I’ve tried. When I asked it for winners at this years festival it said BDA might not go to the champions and go to the turners instead.

[Benjy23]

So the AI also thinks Murcia is still a bet. Interesting

There isn't too many that fit towards the top of the market that I could see. Hot Fuss, Marche D'Alegri, Quantack Hills, Mister Cessna... Who? I gave up here.

[ComplyOrDie]

So the AI also thinks Murcia is still a bet. Interesting

There isn't too many that fit towards the top of the market that I could see. Hot Fuss, Marche D'Alegri, Quantack Hills, Mister Cessna... Who? I gave up here.

Not a huge fan of AI, until now....

[Birds Nest]

Can you ask it to give us the shortlist then so I don't have to do it myself?

Enjoyed the read

Im glad you said that.

[Zachx02]

It seems to be much better with historical data than current data from the few things I’ve tried. When I asked it for winners at this years festival it said BDA might not go to the champions and go to the turners instead.

Not sure about Grok, but I know chatgpt only knows stuff up until like mid 2024, so might be running on outdated data.

[Splinterboy82]

Anyone know why Viyanni showing as scratched for this? Got in a variety of bets NRNB but can’t find anything on this (showing on RP site & removed from some lists)

[Studfarm254]

Can’t get away from Murcia in this. Going back to that Naas race, even last year Lark in the mornin was declared to run in it but was a non runner in the end, but that still links 4 of the last 5 winners to that race.

I watched it back a few times and can’t believe it took so long for the penny to drop as it’s clearly obvious Murcia was the horse to take from the race. She was closing on Bacchanalian in every stride with the pair clear and went past him after the line. Bacchanalian has come out and franked the form. He’ll be around the 140 mark now in Ireland once he’s reassessed. Murcia has been given a UK mark of 136 so based on that she’d have half a stone in hand.

I also think she’ll be much more suited to the triumph race, it’s a furlong further than at naas with a stiffer finish and she looked to have plenty of stamina. There’s also room for improvement in her jumping, she was very sticky at quite a few hurdles but jumped the last 3 quicker once the pace lifted. There’ll be a quicker pace throughout the triumph, so hopefully that will help her jumping.

Alexander doesn’t seem to get it wrong with these French mares, 2nd in the triumph the last 2 years. Murcia was obviously well touted to be a triumph horse and I actually don’t think she’s far off that pair. My gut is telling me she wins this and I’ve a very impressive gut

[Rooster Booster]

Can’t get away from Murcia in this. Going back to that Naas race, even last year Lark in the mornin was declared to run in it but was a non runner in the end, but that still links 4 of the last 5 winners to that race.

I watched it back a few times and can’t believe it took so long for the penny to drop as it’s clearly obvious Murcia was the horse to take from the race. She was closing on Bacchanalian in every stride with the pair clear and went past him after the line. Bacchanalian has come out and franked the form. He’ll be around the 140 mark now in Ireland once he’s reassessed. Murcia has been given a UK mark of 136 so based on that she’d have half a stone in hand.

I also think she’ll be much more suited to the triumph race, it’s a furlong further than at naas with a stiffer finish and she looked to have plenty of stamina. There’s also room for improvement in her jumping, she was very sticky at quite a few hurdles but jumped the last 3 quicker once the pace lifted. There’ll be a quicker pace throughout the triumph, so hopefully that will help her jumping.

Alexander doesn’t seem to get it wrong with these French mares, 2nd in the triumph the last 2 years. Murcia was obviously well touted to be a triumph horse and I actually don’t think she’s far off that pair. My gut is telling me she wins this and I’ve a very impressive gut

You may be right but it could also easily be the case that there are others with even more in hand . Her job is to not run ahead of her mark but do it by more than every other horse. So can I ask your very impressive gut whether it is confident that nothing else has more in hand and if so why? Preferably by referencing others in the race and why you believe they don’t have as much in hand

[Quevega]

Can’t get away from Murcia in this. Going back to that Naas race, even last year Lark in the mornin was declared to run in it but was a non runner in the end, but that still links 4 of the last 5 winners to that race.

I watched it back a few times and can’t believe it took so long for the penny to drop as it’s clearly obvious Murcia was the horse to take from the race. She was closing on Bacchanalian in every stride with the pair clear and went past him after the line. Bacchanalian has come out and franked the form. He’ll be around the 140 mark now in Ireland once he’s reassessed. Murcia has been given a UK mark of 136 so based on that she’d have half a stone in hand.

I also think she’ll be much more suited to the triumph race, it’s a furlong further than at naas with a stiffer finish and she looked to have plenty of stamina. There’s also room for improvement in her jumping, she was very sticky at quite a few hurdles but jumped the last 3 quicker once the pace lifted. There’ll be a quicker pace throughout the triumph, so hopefully that will help her jumping.

Alexander doesn’t seem to get it wrong with these French mares, 2nd in the triumph the last 2 years. Murcia was obviously well touted to be a triumph horse and I actually don’t think she’s far off that pair. My gut is telling me she wins this and I’ve a very impressive gut

Couple of things.

FYI - Bacchanalian was left on the same mark after that last run, which if you look at the weights and opponents in the race - seems fine

And secondly, for that race in question to be such "a thing" would it count as a link if a horse thought about running in it, but didn't ?

And thirdly - I think you're right and would have a shout in the triumph.

[Rooster Booster]

Couple of things.

FYI - Bacchanalian was left on the same mark after that last run, which if you look at the weights and opponents in the race - seems fine

And secondly, for that race in question to be such "a thing" would it count as a link if a horse thought about running in it, but didn't ?

And thirdly - I think you're right and would have a shout in the triumph.

So question …how strong a shout. Studfarm thinks she wins. Is she your number one pick or one of a few you give a chance to. I am not going to back more than two in this race . One will be beyond your dreams and I am looking for one more and thought id be cheeky and ask as I think you are as good as anyone on here when it comes to handicaps. I know you referenced Ephesus before. Gun to your head Ephesus or Murcia or a n other p.s. DW it’ll only be a point or two

[Quevega]

So question …how strong a shout. Studfarm thinks she wins. Is she your number one pick or one of a few you give a chance to. I am not going to back more than two in this race . One will be beyond your dreams and I am looking for one more and thought id be cheeky and ask as I think you are as good as anyone on here when it comes to handicaps. I know you referenced Ephesus before. Gun to your head Ephesus or Murcia or a n other p.s. DW it’ll only be a point or two

I've not backed either
I've put a couple of pounds on Murcia at 250+ for the triumph. Cos I think Willie may run 6 or 7 (at least) in that. Although I acknowledge she looks Fred Winter bound right now.
I wouldn't back her for the FW cos I don't think she's that well handicapped, but I respect her chance to run a good race.
Not backed Ephesus, but it is on standby, as I do not expect the price to alter much.

I have backed Wendrock 2pt 16-1 before weights, and not happy with the mark but will let it run.
And Beyond Your Dreams 3pt W 1pt P 16-1
And Hot Fuss 1ptew 33-1.

If Ephesus and Action Plan are left in next Wednesday I'll take a look at them again, especially if the field has thinned out, but I don't expect it to thin too much.
No doubt Ephesus looked the best treated from that race in question though.

I'll be doing my best not to go too heavy on this race even though the last couple of years have been kind.

My main take on this years race - and could well be proven wrong, is that the ones near the top of the weights have been harshly treated, but that doesn't mean their won't be one of those that proves to be really good on the day.

[Rooster Booster]

I've not backed either
I've put a couple of pounds on Murcia at 250+ for the triumph. Cos I think Willie may run 6 or 7 (at least) in that. Although I acknowledge she looks Fred Winter bound right now.
I wouldn't back her for the FW cos I don't think she's that well handicapped, but I respect her chance to run a good race.
Not backed Ephesus, but it is on standby, as I do not expect the price to alter much.

I have backed Wendrock 2pt 16-1 before weights, and not happy with the mark but will let it run.
And Beyond Your Dreams 3pt W 1pt P 16-1
And Hot Fuss 1ptew 33-1.

If Ephesus and Action Plan are left in next Wednesday I'll take a look at them again, especially if the field has thinned out, but I don't expect it to thin too much.
No doubt Ephesus looked the best treated from that race in question though.

I'll be doing my best not to go too heavy on this race even though the last couple of years have been kind.

My main take on this years race - and could well be proven wrong, is that the ones near the top of the weights have been harshly treated, but that doesn't mean their won't be one of those that proves to be really good on the day.

Thanks mate. I’m gonna demonstrate some discipline and keep it at one I think