The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[JackieMoon33]

Iv always had the opinion with juveniles that nh sires do not in general breed precocity and this a trait thats relevant in juveniles, combined with strength. Its a bit of a minefield for me too tho.

I'd say its variable on NH sires as some can get sharp 3yo. I think where they are bred plays as much as a role too as in France they're in training and jumping much earlier than UK/IRE.

[Quevega]

Definitely been popular with Flat breds for sure but it seems like there are more sprint sires popping up this year.

When it was the last race on the Wednesday you could see why the quicker types might have done well.
Dryer ground, old course.
Think Fast Company was a trend at one point.
Is fastnet rock related through a sprinter.

[JackieMoon33]

When it was the last race on the Wednesday you could see why the quicker types might have done well.
Dryer ground, old course.
Think Fast Company was a trend at one point.
Is fastnet rock related through a sprinter.

Sounds like I could be reading too much into it then. At first glance it seemed like more sprint sires are popping up this year but they have some form in the past.

[ComplyOrDie]

ComplyOrDie - I was looking through the Boodles market last night to see if I could narrow down a selection. I gave up in the end but one thing I noticed was the amount of very questionable pedigrees this year.

As a bettor who significantly weights pedigree in his selection process and backs multiple runners in races, what's the thought process that these flat pedigrees, with sprint sires in most cases, are worthwhile options from a pedigree point of view?

None of these horses have even a whiff of NH substance too them yet they're reasonably prominent in the market. They've obviously done well on the track to be positioned where they are in the market, but I came away scratching my head in the end.

Horse	Market Pos.	Odds	Sire	Dam	Damsire
Galileo Dame	5th	11/1	1m	10f	10f
Naturally Nimble	6th	12/1	7f	6f	6f
Bacchanalian	7th	14/1	1m	1m	6f
Puturhandstogether	8th	14/1	6f	n/a	12f
Beyond Your Dreams	10th	16/1	5.5f	n/a	12f
Lavender Hill Mob	14th	20/1	1m	10f	12f
Holy See	18th	25/1	1m	6f	6f

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Sorry mate, been away for a couple of days with the family so hadn't seen this until late last night.

I don't put as much emphasis on the pedigree for this race. It can come down to stamina or speed, IMO. Looking at past winners you have a variety of sires progeny winning the race. I wouldn't be looking for out and out NH sires.

Hallowed Crown (5.5f-1m) & Fast Company (7f) are probably the obvious sires to have had winners who wouldn't necessarily be deemed as stamina laden. I also would add weight on the dams side of things, the damsire for example, you've got Beyond Your Dreams by a 5-6f sire yet the damsire you're looking at is Galileo. I do believe this has an influence. The sire, despite being a 5-6f horse himself, has actually produced some fair horses as 2m hurdlers too (Bedrock & last seasons County Hurdle winner, Absurde) so I'd take this into account also. As you've probably already seen, and the top two on ratings for this sire are the Fastnet Rock x Galileo combination as well, the same as Beyond Your Dreams.

I would much prefer a horse with more stamina in a Triumph as opposed to a Boodles, and believe it's very much dependent on how the Boodles is run on the day to determine what is required to win. I've not done the timings on previous races, so I can't back this up, but this is how I always view it. This is something we can't know, which is why I tend to back a mixture of horses, although this is not solely pedigree led. Weights are also a factor. I liken to Triumph to a Supreme, almost an end to end gallop.

Murcia is the one I'm really keen on this season. That said, Willie is still yet to win the race and Gaelic Warrior was supremely well in when he run in it and still didn't manage to win. Murcia is well found in the market and likely at the weights too, so I could be barking up the wrong tree.

A have a fair few I like, though she would be my top pick right now.

[JackieMoon33]

Sorry mate, been away for a couple of days with the family so hadn't seen this until late last night.

I don't put as much emphasis on the pedigree for this race. It can come down to stamina or speed, IMO. Looking at past winners you have a variety of sires progeny winning the race. I wouldn't be looking for out and out NH sires.

Hallowed Crown (5.5f-1m) & Fast Company (7f) are probably the obvious sires to have had winners who wouldn't necessarily be deemed as stamina laden. I also would add weight on the dams side of things, the damsire for example, you've got Beyond Your Dreams by a 5-6f sire yet the damsire you're looking at is Galileo. I do believe this has an influence. The sire, despite being a 5-6f horse himself, has actually produced some fair horses as 2m hurdlers too (Bedrock & last seasons County Hurdle winner, Absurde) so I'd take this into account also. As you've probably already seen, and the top two on ratings for this sire are the Fastnet Rock x Galileo combination as well, the same as Beyond Your Dreams.

I would much prefer a horse with more stamina in a Triumph as opposed to a Boodles, and believe it's very much dependent on how the Boodles is run on the day to determine what is required to win. I've not done the timings on previous races, so I can't back this up, but this is how I always view it. This is something we can't know, which is why I tend to back a mixture of horses, although this is not solely pedigree led. Weights are also a factor. I liken to Triumph to a Supreme, almost an end to end gallop.

Murcia is the one I'm really keen on this season. That said, Willie is still yet to win the race and Gaelic Warrior was supremely well in when he run in it and still didn't manage to win. Murcia is well found in the market and likely at the weights too, so I could be barking up the wrong tree.

A have a fair few I like, though she would be my top pick right now.

Agreed, I think pedigree needs to be ignored to an extent in this race. After looking through this race and the previous winners/runners, it would be top of my hitlist in terms of removing races from the festival. Other than being a decent betting heat, it's a stinker of a race and should be binned.

[Hurricane fly]

Gaileo Dame and Bacchanlian both scratched accorinding to twitter

[Eggs]

….post #1 updated with initial entries and trend analysis.