The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Eggs]

Number 4 is a given, right? "All 12 winners of the race since 2013 have made at least three starts over hurdles before lining up at the Festival"

Don't horses require 3 runs to get a mark Eggs ? or have I got that wrong?

….yep, I think so. I’ll remove that bit.

[ComplyOrDie]

….yep, I think so. I’ll remove that bit.

No worries, mate, thanks for doing them though, love a trend myself, not all, but some, so will keep checking in on them as you put them up

[Eggs]

No worries, mate, thanks for doing them though, love a trend myself, not all, but some, so will keep checking in on them as you put them up

….i think I’ve updated trend analysis for all of the handicap threads (with the exception of the ‘new’ handicaps), hopefully FJs will find them useful.

[chunker86]

Number 4 is a given, right? "All 12 winners of the race since 2013 have made at least three starts over hurdles before lining up at the Festival"

Don't horses require 3 runs to get a mark Eggs ? or have I got that wrong?

That's a trend that not even Willie Mullins can bust!!

[JamieSensible]

I'm still considering Holy See for this race, currently has an Irish mark of 119, likely to get couple of lb of Irish tax.

The question is, if I back him antepost and he doesn't get in due to the weights, do I get my money back or is it a loser?

[TigerRolllllll]

I'm still considering Holy See for this race, currently has an Irish mark of 119, likely to get couple of lb of Irish tax.

The question is, if I back him antepost and he doesn't get in due to the weights, do I get my money back or is it a loser?

Loser sadly

[chunker86]

Loser sadly

if they declare him at the 48 hr stage and he doesn't get it in because he's too low a rating is this not balloted out, and therefore a void bet and refund even under ante post terms?

[Lobos]

if they declare him at the 48 hr stage and he doesn't get it in because he's too low a rating is this not balloted out, and therefore a void bet and refund even under ante post terms?

Yep, money back in that scenario.

[Big Bucks]

if they declare him at the 48 hr stage and he doesn't get it in because he's too low a rating is this not balloted out, and therefore a void bet and refund even under ante post terms?

Yeah that would be my understanding too.

[Lobos]

Yeah that would be my understanding too.

Bookies must have millions just sitting there for balloted horses just waiting to be picked up .

[Eggs]

….i know some FJs like their trends so for reference, I’ve updated the trend analysis for this race in post #1.

[JackieMoon33]

ComplyOrDie - I was looking through the Boodles market last night to see if I could narrow down a selection. I gave up in the end but one thing I noticed was the amount of very questionable pedigrees this year.

As a bettor who significantly weights pedigree in his selection process and backs multiple runners in races, what's the thought process that these flat pedigrees, with sprint sires in most cases, are worthwhile options from a pedigree point of view?

None of these horses have even a whiff of NH substance too them yet they're reasonably prominent in the market. They've obviously done well on the track to be positioned where they are in the market, but I came away scratching my head in the end.

Horse	Market Pos.	Odds	Sire	Dam	Damsire
Galileo Dame	5th	11/1	1m	10f	10f
Naturally Nimble	6th	12/1	7f	6f	6f
Bacchanalian	7th	14/1	1m	1m	6f
Puturhandstogether	8th	14/1	6f	n/a	12f
Beyond Your Dreams	10th	16/1	5.5f	n/a	12f
Lavender Hill Mob	14th	20/1	1m	10f	12f
Holy See	18th	25/1	1m	6f	6f

image.png

[Birds Nest]

Iv always had the opinion with juveniles that nh sires do not in general breed precocity and this a trait thats relevant in juveniles, combined with strength. Its a bit of a minefield for me too tho.

[Quevega]

I thought quite a few flat bred/sprint types had won this previously.

[JackieMoon33]

I thought quite a few flat bred/sprint types had won this previously.

Definitely been popular with Flat breds for sure but it seems like there are more sprint sires popping up this year.