The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[JamieSensible]

Ben Pauling was on Luck podcast and Jipcot has only just arrived in the yard.
Said he might get supplemented for the triumph. So obviously thinks a lot of him.

He's got an OR of 127 for the boodles, if they're thinking about Triumph he could be chucked in for the boodles. it would be very interesting I'd the ground was soft. On my shortlist for sure.

[Birds Nest]

Pauling tricast ? Bad got tipped by Richard Pugh on tattersalls - for the triumph

Paul kealy tipped him on the corals one too.

[Kevloaf]

Ben Pauling was on Luck podcast and Jipcot has only just arrived in the yard.
Said he might get supplemented for the triumph. So obviously thinks a lot of him.

Tony Mullins backed that up too didn't he.

Wonder what price he'll go in!

[Studfarm254]

Ben Pauling also has Jipcot and Bad here. Tony Mullins has just mentioned Bad on the Paddy Power preview night. Anyone with French racing knowledge, how does the form of Jipcot and Bad stack up?

Jipcot is the most interesting with the listed success in France, any substance to the form?

Pauling is no Willie Mullins! Gaelic cert had 50 stone in hand last year and still couldn’t pull it aff. Jipcot would need to start now just to have a place chance

[HesTheOne]

Tony Mullins backed that up too didn't he.

Wonder what price he'll go in!

the point Tony made about preferring a horse to be in the yard only a wet week rather than 2 months if he's gonna be turned out again was interesting

[charlie]

Will stick this in here too (in day 1 yankee thread)

The 16/1 currently available about Cougar in the Boodles (as short as 10's elsewhere) wont last and is a great EW leg IMO.

Connections won the Boodles last year. I fancy a repeat and believe Cougar is a better candidate than Brazil.

He was a much better flat horse, he's a much better jumper, he's less exposed over obstacles and ticks pretty much every major trend going.

That run at Down Royal was seriously eye catching IMO and it's a race won by lots of horses who end up placing in the Triumph.

He ran to an RPR of 129 and was worth way more than the winning margin suggested, put two 1's next to his name before being taken care of in the G1.

Mark Walsh went out of his way to find traffic, conceal his ability (watch how he pinged the last) and finish down the field.

Connections have purposefully avoided running him since which was a mistake (IMO) they made with Brazil, and he won off 137 carrying 11-9.

Cougar was rated 92 on the flat and if you add 45 pounds to his flat rating to approximate his NH rating he's a 137 horse racing off a mark of 127.

He clearly loves his new job and jumps hurdles low and fast like a proper 2 miler. I love it and doubt there is a better jumper in the field.

Tekao is 7/2 and Cougar is 16/1 and I think the price differential is madness myself.

[Can't Catch Me]

Couldn't agree more Charlie. I think he's one of the few examples of stand out value still remaining... He was my first bet in the race and just cant believe how his price is holding up.

[JackieMoon33]

Very good case Charlie although I can’t think of a worse way to predict a jumps rating than by adding 45 to a flat rating. Other than that’s it’s compelling and I think you’re right about the comparison to Tekao too.

[ComplyOrDie]

Will stick this in here too (in day 1 yankee thread)

The 16/1 currently available about Cougar in the Boodles (as short as 10's elsewhere) wont last and is a great EW leg IMO.

Connections won the Boodles last year. I fancy a repeat and believe Cougar is a better candidate than Brazil.

He was a much better flat horse, he's a much better jumper, he's less exposed over obstacles and ticks pretty much every major trend going.

That run at Down Royal was seriously eye catching IMO and it's a race won by lots of horses who end up placing in the Triumph.

He ran to an RPR of 129 and was worth way more than the winning margin suggested, put two 1's next to his name before being taken care of in the G1.

Mark Walsh went out of his way to find traffic, conceal his ability (watch how he pinged the last) and finish down the field.

Connections have purposefully avoided running him since which was a mistake (IMO) they made with Brazil, and he won off 137 carrying 11-9.

Cougar was rated 92 on the flat and if you add 45 pounds to his flat rating to approximate his NH rating he's a 137 horse racing off a mark of 127.

He clearly loves his new job and jumps hurdles low and fast like a proper 2 miler. I love it and doubt there is a better jumper in the field.

Tekao is 7/2 and Cougar is 16/1 and I think the price differential is madness myself.

I'm glad you did, as I'm sure you'll remember I was one of the members who got on board with him when you first made your case for him.

I have two, relatively small concerns, the first is that somehow he's been rated 129 in the UK & Risk Belle 127, when she's finished some 40+ lengths ahead of him in their run behind Lossiemouth. Obviously she was getting the fillies allowance that day, of 7lbs, but I don't think the 5lbs difference will breach that gap, and I know there are excuses (running too freely etc...) but I think of the pair that Risk Belle is the better handicapped (not hard to come to that assumption given their formline).

The other issue I have is his general form from the races he won, I know, it's subjective enough, and you can pick and choose the pieces of form that suit the argument, but on the whole it's just not up to a great deal, IMO.

I do like his profile though, i.e. from the flat and his rating on the flat, his trainer and his breeding, I just think him being a plot has to be taken on trust more than the visuals we've seen.

Brazil was very different, bar his win at Naas he was ALWAYS held up to never challenge, his RP comments from his 3 runs prior to Naas were 'Kept on, not reach leaders', Never near to challenge' & again 'Never near to challenge'. Yours truly put him up on here @ 25/1 for this race last season, because he was a 'proper eyecatcher' but I can't say the same of Cougar.

I completely agree regarding his price to Tekao's and on that basis he is definitely still a value bet, and I do think he'll be there or thereabouts, I'm just not sure he's going to be as good as Brazil, personally, and obviously time will tell on that. I have him backed, so FWIW him winning would be fantastic for me still

[charlie]

I'm glad you did, as I'm sure you'll remember I was one of the members who got on board with him when you first made your case for him.

I have two, relatively small concerns, the first is that somehow he's been rated 129 in the UK & Risk Belle 127, when she's finished some 40+ lengths ahead of him in their run behind Lossiemouth. Obviously she was getting the fillies allowance that day, of 7lbs, but I don't think the 5lbs difference will breach that gap, and I know there are excuses (running too freely etc...) but I think of the pair that Risk Belle is the better handicapped (not hard to come to that assumption given their formline).

The other issue I have is his general form from the races he won, I know, it's subjective enough, and you can pick and choose the pieces of form that suit the argument, but on the whole it's just not up to a great deal, IMO.

I do like his profile though, i.e. from the flat and his rating on the flat, his trainer and his breeding, I just think him being a plot has to be taken on trust more than the visuals we've seen.

Brazil was very different, bar his win at Naas he was ALWAYS held up to never challenge, his RP comments from his 3 runs prior to Naas were 'Kept on, not reach leaders', Never near to challenge' & again 'Never near to challenge'. Yours truly put him up on here @ 25/1 for this race last season, because he was a 'proper eyecatcher' but I can't say the same of Cougar.

I completely agree regarding his price to Tekao's and on that basis he is definitely still a value bet, and I do think he'll be there or thereabouts, I'm just not sure he's going to be as good as Brazil, personally, and obviously time will tell on that. I have him backed, so FWIW him winning would be fantastic for me still

I was surprised Cougar remained 25's after Down Royal.

I'll do my best to put your mind at ease

I don't take the Risk Belle form at face value at all. She was a 28/1 shot ridden quietly but never on terms. Luke rode her to pick up pieces and run a race, whereas Mark seemed happy to let Cougar race freely, encounter traffic and finish tailed off. Risk Belle looked like a 'find out how good she is' sort of ride whereas Mark was on a 'get a third run under your belt so we qualify' type of ride.

It's difficult to make a strong form case re Cougar. I can cherry pick bits I like though HAHA. Cougar beat Snapius (120) 18L at Down Royal giving him 9lbs. At Navan, Comfort Zone (140+) beat Snapius by 18L off basically levels. Tekao beat Snapius 8L that day and then that margin was closed to 4L over Xmas. Its a thin form line that you certainly can't be confident about, but its worth noting.

The other thing worth noting is how many good animals have won that race at Down Royal, posting similar or worse RPR's, where the form hasn't amounted to much. Fil D'or, Coeur Sublime, Espoir D'Allen and Mega Fortune all went on to be 140+ hurdlers that year and the form of their races looked shite, they just looked really good when winning and I think the same applies here. That win at Down Royal was so easy and slick, you can be sure there is improvement to come IMO.

It will be interesting to see if JP wades in. He backed Brazil last year, hopefully he piles into Cougar.

[Quevega]

Problem with this race (in a non gaelic cert year) is repeating itself again this year.
There are so many handicap plots getting mentioned it makes them all worth nothing.
I've got sucked in again so I'm a mug myself.

I have backed Sam Spade, Bad, Risk Belle & Common Practise.
Only backed Bad because of the song though to be honest.

I really like the mares handicap at Dublin and for Risk Belle to run in that and get backed so heavily in that made me sit up.
The Mullins mare that came second got 11lb and I still fancy her running well in the pipe.
She (risk belle) also looked lovely until she fell on her arse.

Common practise was also an eyecatching entry as a 4 yr old in the 2 mile handicap, and he also got backed and fell.

I would imagine if either run and get round, error free then they wouldn't be far away.

But back to my starting point, it's a fucking lottery.

[ComplyOrDie]

But back to my starting point, it's a fucking lottery.

Haha bang on!

FWIW (which isn't much) I think the Skelton horse will come on plenty for his debut run for them. Shades of Nicholls (who taught Skelton plenty) getting one from France, one run (or not even needing a run), then turn up in the race to run a blinder.

Anyway, like you say, lottery!

[Faugheen_Machine]

But back to my starting point, it's a fucking lottery.

I wasted ages going through this race last night and totally agree. I ended with a short list of 12, all which i thought could be well ahead of there marks.

Cougar was one of the 12 though, and if i was forced to have a bet in it now, he'd be it. I'm waiting until final decs before having another bet.

Jazzy Matty and Zanndabad my two as it stands.

[Quevega]

I wasted ages going through this race last night and totally agree. I ended with a short list of 12, all which i thought could be well ahead of there marks.

Cougar was one of the 12 though, and if i was forced to have a bet in it now, he'd be it. I'm waiting until final decs before having another bet.

Jazzy Matty and Zanndabad my two as it stands.

Backed Jazzy Matty as well, forgot about the any race for him

[Middle_Of_March]

I may add something else nearer the time but it’s Risk Belle (double stake) 14s, Jazzy Matty 20/1 (from ages ago and I don’t fancy it at all anymore) and Bad (a bit reactionary the other day when I felt I had to make a quick decision when the money started flooding in for him, something i regret).

I definitely think I will add one at a price with the extra places on offer but it’s really not a race I’m confident with this year (in stark contrast to last season. Which did end in profit, albeit disappointment that it wasn’t the jackpot). It’s an army of three, likely four and yet it kind of feels as though really it’s just Risk Belle carrying my money.

It was that Dublin festival hammering she took beforehand. She was already one i mentioned for this ages ago elsewhere. But then she got backed there. And then got that mark. I do like her. But not enough to go in what feels single handed a bit. It’s a strange betting heat. A compelling one though. Anything can win. It’s got more plots than a season of game of thrones.