The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Run4Home]

…so no Cossack Chac despite being an ‘intended runner’.

Joseph said on Friday if soft he would wait for Aintree so assume that’s been the decision

[DenmanSacre]

Outside of Bet365 the rest have priced this market up disgracefully so may be best to wait until Tuesday.

One of my favourite races to look at as you can get loads of places and make a profit in the place market.

The race this year is quite a decent standard when looking at the flat RPRs for the relevant horses. 3 rated over 90, another 8 between 80 and 90.

You can split these into the horses who ran on the flat and then went hurdling, and those who raced in France over hurdles before being bought over here.

Flat horses gone hurdling

These have won 2 of the last 3 and filled 10 of the 15 places in last 3 years (but comprise most of the runners).

What I look for:

• Irish or French bred
• Flat 3yo RPR of 80+
• TS in hurdle race of 80+ (stated previously I don't like this rating but it works well for this race to narrow horses down)
• Ran well last time unless in grade 1/2 company

Horses of interest

Bright Legend - 94 RPR on the flat, 99 hurdle TS, ran in the Naas race that finds winners here and also finished behind Bunting and Highwind. Flat highest TS of 69 which is good in terms of this race. All form on soft. Sire unknown (Aussie sprinter so possibly he improves for better ground?). Irish bred. Irish trained. He's been ridden differently each time so could be tactically versatile. I'd like him not to be ridden for the lead this time as it made him a bit keen last time. 33/1 6 places Bet365. Should be able to get higher win only on the exchange on the day (currently 34)

Roaring Legend - 89 RPR on the flat, 99 hurdle TS, 74 flat TS. French bred. Beaten by Liari and Kalif du Berlais, which is decent form for a British trained runner. Disappointing last time and beaten favourite, which means I'll hold fire at current odds of 20/1 and 22/1.

Latin Verse - 83 RPR (AW) or 80 on grass on the flat, 111 TS over hurdles (miles clear on this for his win last time), 6 runs is a negative (winner last year was experienced though), won a handicap last time against older horses. Last time was a big step up on previous form so slightly wary of the form?? Timeform give him a good write up. 33/1 Bet365 6 places compared with 21 currently win only on the exchange so taken it now.

Teorie - 88 RPR on flat 83 TS over hurdles. Won well last time against older horses. Do many Jim Bolger bred horses make there way to Cheltenham? Hurdles pretty well. 50/1 Bet365 compared to 70 on the exchange. Half bet at the moment and wait for the others who aren't Bet365 to actually price the race up properly. Fergal had Elham Valley place in this previously who wasn't as good as Teorie IMO and was 4 pounds higher.

Liari also does well here but much shorter than the above. Odds shortening but one I'll leave and maybe play in forecasts.

Lark in the Mornin (GER) and Ndaawi (GB) fail on the Irish/French bred qualifier. Already backed them both earlier on win only to cover stakes for this race.

Mordor does well if ignoring the 80+ TS but that shows the horse has done well in a race run in a decent time but if he's a large price to place, one I'd consider.

Ex French hurdlers

• Got a RPR in France of 120+ (add 7 pounds to the fillies)
• Irish trained
• Ran in graded hurdles and not in handicaps

Not any that qualify under this.

Milan Tino -126 RPR at Auteuil in October and then ran in two grade 2s at Cheltenham but French trained.

Batman Girac - RPR in France only 104 (was in April so maybe forgivable) but I just don't like him for this race. If he had an outstanding chance, Townend would be riding him and not skipping the race.

Karia des Blaises - fails on RPR stat (109 in April and I trust the form less in France when its not at Auteuil).

Nara - fails on RPR stat (109 in April winning a listed race for unraced juvenile fillies).

Les Loyautes - crap RPRs and first run for a British trainer here.


Shortlist:

Bright Legend
Latin Verse
Teorie

These have been bet each way to add to Lark in the Mornin and Ndaawi win only. Irish usually win this and got 3 of those here.

[Lobos]

PT not taking the ride on any of Willies 3???? Must say a fair bit about their chances .

[Hiddy Harmeen]

Ose Partir has been jobbed for this hasn't it?

[Zachx02]

Ose Partir has been jobbed for this hasn't it?

Typical brassil plot, I agree 100%

[Eggs]

….Mullins;

‘The fact Paul Townend has elected not to take a ride on any of our three in this might be an interpretation of what chance he feels they have but it will be interesting to see how they go.’

[robith]

….Mullins;

‘The fact Paul Townend has elected not to take a ride on any of our three in this might be an interpretation of what chance he feels they have but it will be interesting to see how they go.’

I'm not risking riding the Ballyburn/Fact to File/El Fabiolo treble to ride a bumper car race of horses who've never tried a day in their life"

[Eggs]

……left field selection from Jamie Codd (18-1 PP/33-1 365)

‘This is a bit of a minefield, but I’ll take a chance on HARSH each-way at a huge price for Joseph O’Brien and Gigginstown. He made a bright enough start over hurdles, including when winning very easily Cork and he was deemed good enough to run in the Grade 2 Finale Juvenile at Chepstow over the Christmas period.

He was sent off 5-2 for that, and while he didn’t run particularly well if truth be told, he’s surely capable of better. Joseph knows what he’s doing, and he now pitches up in the Boodles off 10-13 with the excellent Conor Stone-Walsh taking a further 5lbs off his back. Soft ground holds no fears, and I think he could run a big race.’

[DenmanSacre]

Latin Verse being put up by a lot of people tonight. Down to 14s from 33s. Some as low as 11s.

Ose Partir drifting slightly.

Lark in the Mornin 7/1 BetMGM and 13/2 elsewhere compared with 9/2 PP.

[Benjy23]

An Bradan Feasa was the left field one I landed on after some trends. Always like a late addition to the team. Small each way play. Would be interested to see if JOB ever mentioned him.

[Kevloaf]

We know where the late money is going to go.....

[Lobos]

We know where the late money is going to go.....

Roaring Legend

[charlie]

All this rain is perfect for Milan Tino. I was worried the race would turn into a burst finish sprint even on soft ground (because it's fresh) but nudging heavy will ride more like 2m5f and I really think he will win the race.

[darlojim]

I'd say its doubtful Lark will run with the rain coming, huge shame

[Eggs]

I'd say its doubtful Lark will run with the rain coming, huge shame

…..maybe accompanied by Banbridge on JoB early boat home. Fingers crossed the rain swerved the course.