The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[FinalFurlong91]

I think Eagle fang is being a bit overlooked here because of the trainer. Just looking back at the Naas race again over the last 5 years.

Jazzy Matty 4th - won boodles off 125
Brazil 1st - won off 137
Aramax 1st - won off 138
Band of Outlaws 1st - won off 139

Eagle Fang won it and is running off 127. He’s only 2lb above his Irish mark, which is very lenient for a juvenile. Also he was very well backed into favourite on the day so must have been showing plenty at home, and he won pretty easily going away at the finish. I just wonder if he’ll continue to be ignored and go off a good bit bigger on the day, definitely doesn’t seem to be much love for him atm.

I watched that race earlier and ended up backing nara at 20s

Looked a tender enough ride to me

Was keen for most of the way round so should be suited by the big field strong pace

Listed winner in Auteuil by 8 lengths bought by JP and has had had 2 runs for Henry and not been put into either race

The usual JP ride, travelling strongly further back than ideal then a few elbow shakes from the jockey pretending to ride the horse out

given jonjo has ridden Milan tino in both his UK starts and mark walsh has ridden nara both times you'd imagine those jockey bookings will remain

walsh/jp have won with aramax and Brazil in recent years

Very interesting at 20s nrnb imo

[Cashew King]

Nburging being confirmed for the Triumph means all runners will have an extra 4lbs to carry is that correct?

Provided Kala Conti runs who would then burden top weight.

Kala Conti not going - confirmed by Rob Acheson (see preview night thread)

[Lobos]

I watched that race earlier and ended up backing nara at 20s

Looked a tender enough ride to me

Was keen for most of the way round so should be suited by the big field strong pace

Listed winner in Auteuil by 8 lengths bought by JP and has had had 2 runs for Henry and not been put into either race

The usual JP ride, travelling strongly further back than ideal then a few elbow shakes from the jockey pretending to ride the horse out

given jonjo has ridden Milan tino in both his UK starts and mark walsh has ridden nara both times you'd imagine those jockey bookings will remain

walsh/jp have won with aramax and Brazil in recent years

Very interesting at 20s nrnb imo

Just watched it back myself and agree given a very restrained ride. I'm on board and taken the 25's with 365 in their ordinary market. 16's NRNB the best now.

[TigerRolllllll]

Just watched it back myself and agree given a very restrained ride. I'm on board and taken the 25's with 365 in their ordinary market. 16's NRNB the best now.

Henry could be one to watch in Hcaps….seems to have developed a taste for them this season

[Lobos]

Henry could be one to watch in Hcaps….seems to have developed a taste for them this season

He could have a very good Fez.

[ComplyOrDie]

Was considering Nara, decided against her.

Her French form has produced zilch, albeit she won very cosily that day.

I also think she's held by Eagle Fang. Just 1lb difference between the pair in the Boodles and she's finished behind him both times they've met, once getting 7lbs and 3 lengths behind and the next time 13 1/2 lengths behind giving him 7lbs. There's little between them, IMO, but still think she'll finish behind him again, so if you're backing Nara you might want to think about backing Eagle Fang.

I appreciate the opinion that she's been 'handled with care' in both them runs, but I'm not completely convinced.

[FinalFurlong91]

The 4th did finish 2nd in a grade 2 but yes the French form hasn't worked out.

But you wouldn't expect it to given she won by so far.

It's a price play really

A JP Horse that will either be ridden by mark walsh or rachel blackmore has considerable scope to shorten

Be a little surprised if she doesn't end up going off single figures.

A horse trained by William durkan is unlikely to go off shorter than the 12-14s currently available on the day

Nara however is 20-25/1 and not beyond the realms could go off 7-10/1 given connections

[Benjy23]

Just when the Nara fan club was growing!

I'm not against Eagle Fang but he's one I can't see being that popular due to connections, so I'm not in any rush to back. I guess he won the right race last time which might see some tip him up and the price go but I'll take a chance on that.

Wouldn't mind seeing Wodooh win it like. Won't be backing at the prices like but the only one who seems to have been trying to win all year.

[Frankely My Dear]

Data analysis incoming, larger pinch of salt with this one it feels given the output but here we go.

Looking at the last 9 winners (Diego Du Charmil was a massive outlier, but worth looking at similarities to other UK entries) the following trends were hit 100%.

Hurdles OR 125+
Highest hurdles RPR 120+
Not won a graded hurdle
3 or 4 hurdle runs that season
Ex-flat, or French hurdles

Filtering these resulted in

Givemefive
LIari
Milan Tino
Ndaawi

Other trends included never run at Cheltenham, only won once or twice in the season and didn't run in a handicap or maiden lto. All 9/9 Applying these leaves only Givemefive, so there's your winner!

Nurburgring only fell down on winning a graded hurdle.

[Speedy17]

Data analysis incoming, larger pinch of salt with this one it feels given the output but here we go.

Looking at the last 9 winners (Diego Du Charmil was a massive outlier, but worth looking at similarities to other UK entries) the following trends were hit 100%.

Hurdles OR 125+
Highest hurdles RPR 120+
Not won a graded hurdle
3 or 4 hurdle runs that season
Ex-flat, or French hurdles

Filtering these resulted in

Givemefive
LIari
Milan Tino
Ndaawi

Other trends included never run at Cheltenham, only won once or twice on the season and didn't run in a handicap or maiden lto. Applying these leaves only Givemefive, so there's your winner!

Nurburgring only fell down on winning a graded hurdle.

Givemefive isn't going as reported yesterday, neither is Nurburgring.

[Frankely My Dear]

Well that fucks the data analysis up, will re-evaluate and consider coincidental data points that I can remove

[Zachx02]

Where's the dams sires longchamp stat guy from last year when you need him, jazzy matty didn't fit the trend but was certainly insightful

[Quevega]

Well that fucks the data analysis up, will re-evaluate and consider coincidental data points that I can remove

Like all good Stats men do.

[Benjy23]

I actually quite like trends but...

That Cheltenham runs one is one I can't get on board with. Like why could that be a negative?

Chuck that in the bin and back Milan Tino and I'd have been sold

[Eggs]

I actually quite like trends but...

That Cheltenham runs one is one I can't get on board with. Like why could that be a negative?

Chuck that in the bin and back Milan Tino and I'd have been sold

….not sure it’s a negative, in the main it probably reflects Irish trainers don’t send their juveniles over prior to the Festival.