The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Quevega]

Irish handicapper has given him 136 today!

I'd say thats a no then - Kevin floaty hair said triumph for sure.

[darlojim]

Don’t like these juvenile plots, if it is a plot, in terms of a value point of view.

Does Lark In The Mornin have that much in hand that the market suggests? Had he been held back that much in his races that he should be this short?

He was hammered by Mighty Bandit on debut, who was subsequently hammered upped in Grade. He then ran on heavy coming 6th, now I’ve not watched the run back but how do we not know he just struggled with the ground that day and was trying? He’s been pulled from running on heavy the last 3 entries. I’ll need to watch but if someone remembers then that may clear that up. The winner again hammered upped in Grade and on his third start same again but on slightly better ground. I mean don’t get me wrong by his third start they obviously know he’s not good enough to go the Graded route (Triumph) but I don’t buy how much he could have in hand compared to his price.

They think he will improve a fair amount when tackling spring ground. They were happy enough to run at Naas but ended up being off feed and didn't want to run at Gowran as it was almost unraceable and could have bottomed the horse. I'd say there is ALOT of improvement off his current mark which is being concealed running on ground that he doesnt want.

[FinalFurlong91]

Irish handicapper has given him 136 today!

Hmm wouldn't want too much uk tax on that

[Craigy14]

They think he will improve a fair amount when tackling spring ground. They were happy enough to run at Naas but ended up being off feed and didn't want to run at Gowran as it was almost unraceable and could have bottomed the horse. I'd say there is ALOT of improvement off his current mark which is being concealed running on ground that he doesnt want.

Thanks for the info Jim, I do recall you mentioning the better ground being a huge plus to him.

That aside though, the price is a shambles

Do folk not remember what happened just 2 seasons ago

[darlojim]

Thanks for the info Jim, I do recall you mentioning the better ground being a huge plus to him.

That aside though, the price is a shambles

Do folk not remember what happened just 2 seasons ago

Ohh aii he's short enough now 100%

But he was as big as 16s at one point

[Benjy23]

123 Irish mark for Nara. Sneak in nicely down the bottom off that with a bit of tax

[Lobos]

Irish handicapper has given him 136 today!

3 have won off higher in the last 5 years. He's not going to win a Triumph and unlikely he'll even place.

[Craigy14]

Ohh aii he's short enough now 100%

But he was as big as 16s at one point

That’s what you want I just seem to remember him being close to fav the whole time

[Eggs]

….2023 trend analysis added for reference;

LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had not won a graded hurdle.
- Had never run at Cheltenham.
- Did not run in a H’cap last time out.
- Did not run in a Maiden Hrd last time (0/40).
- Had run in no more than 6 Hrd races.
- Had won no more that two races (only 1 was a maiden).
- Did not carry top weight (form figures; 00028F060); Note; following a NR last year, Brazil carried joint top weight.

9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Last finished in first two no more than two runs ago.

8 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had run in a race that year.

KEY TRIALS;

- Adonis Juv just 1 winner 0 placed in 10 years.
- Spring Juv 1 winner & 2 placed in 10 years.
- 4yo Hrd at Fairyhouse, GE tests his Boodles winners in. Jazzy Matty was his runner this year (Blood Destiny won).

TRAINER TRENDS;

- Nicholls 3 winners, 8 placed from just 24 runners in 10 years.
- Elliott 2 of the last 5 & 3 in all.
- Nick Williams 1 winner & a place from 8 runners.
- Henderson is 0/9 but has had 2 placed.
- Ireland has won last 5.

JOCKEY TRENDS;

Only Mark Walsh has won the race more than once in 10 years.

[DenmanSacre]

…

KEY TRIALS;

- 4yo Hrd at Fairyhouse, GE tests his Boodles winners in. Jazzy Matty was his runner this year (Blood Destiny won).

TRAINER TRENDS;


- Elliott 2 of the last 5 & 3 in all.

All 3 of Elliott's winners ran in that race without winning it - Jazzy Matty, Aramax and Veneer of Charm.

Ndaawi finished 3rd this year behind 2 of Mullins fillie for Elliott.

[Benjy23]

Mark Walsh likely be going for his 3rd win on Nara? Might not see him as a negative for once

Anyone any ideas if this is the plan? Henry had many runners previously? Probably doesn't get a choice with JP and it's her only entry like, so I'm guessing she's an intended. Might cash out my NRNB 25s for 100% and take 40s antepost...

[Eggs]

Mark Walsh likely be going for his 3rd win on Nara? Might not see him as a negative for once

Anyone any ideas if this is the plan? Henry had many runners previously? Probably doesn't get a choice with JP and it's her only entry like, so I'm guessing she's an intended. Might cash out my NRNB 25s for 100% and take 40s antepost...

….when I checked, Nara wasn’t mentioned in HdB stable tour. He does highlight a few handicappers but not her. I suppose the plus is she’s got an entry.

[Saxon Warrior]

Trends added to Page 1 Post 1 Eggs

All 9 races have this added so job done.

Weights next

[DenmanSacre]

Lark in the Mornin 122. What we like to see.

[Quevega]

Milan Tino might be worth backing.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/cheltenham-festival/jp-mcmanus-boodles-hopeful-dropped-10lb-as-weights-are-revealed-for-cheltenham-festival-handicaps-aOWUl6v2HVxr/