The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[charlie]

RB on Champion Green leaves me a little bit happy!

[The Fellow]

RB on Champion Green leaves me a little bit happy!

Perfect jockey for this rascal

[Old Vic]

RB on Champion Green leaves me a little bit happy!

I didn’t see that coming

12/1 6 places with skybet - cash out review needed

[Benjy23]

Aye, Blackmore over Mark Walsh every day of the week. Looks a good each way play now.

[Studfarm254]

RB on Champion Green leaves me a little bit happy!

I know it’s been on a lot of peoples radars for along time but just going to give my view after watching its races back. 3 starts ago it travelled like by far the best horse, gainford schooled Jody mcgarvey and that’s what got it beat. Then next race it was basically joint fav with the tide turns when saddle slipped and pulled up early. It’s 12lb better off with that horse now. Then last race it won very very easily, could have won by a lot further. Was it’s 1st race hurdle race on better ground and it’s best flat form was on better ground. Same mark as Jeff kidder last year 125 looks a gift and Rachel Blackmore booked. Looks a good bet at double figures

[punterorplonker]

Hey guys - gavin c was on nick luck this morning. All their clips and racingtv streams cut off when they talk about white pepper at the end. Nick asked if he was declared, he said yes.. but I was wondering what he said after this ?

Can anyone help ?

[charlie]

I know it’s been on a lot of peoples radars for along time but just going to give my view after watching its races back. 3 starts ago it travelled like by far the best horse, gainford schooled Jody mcgarvey and that’s what got it beat. Then next race it was basically joint fav with the tide turns when saddle slipped and pulled up early. It’s 12lb better off with that horse now. Then last race it won very very easily, could have won by a lot further. Was it’s 1st race hurdle race on better ground and it’s best flat form was on better ground. Same mark as Jeff kidder last year 125 looks a gift and Rachel Blackmore booked. Looks a good bet at double figures

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/342309-the-boodles-fred-winter-juvenile-handicap-hurdle?p=366002#post366002

[Stormez]

I’ve been looking at Forever William for this today.

Won well first time out beating now 121 & 125 rated horses, and has since ran well behind two of the main protagonists in the Triumph (Porticello & Pied Piper).

Finished just over 9 lengths behind Porticello in the Finale at Chepstow, and as he’s now 140 Forever Williams mark of 125 doesn’t look harsh.

Got valuable course form experience in his last run, and though Moka De Vassy reversed the form from their first run, could easily make the case they were mindful of finishing too close to Pied Piper.

Its been mentioned several times on the Arkle thread about Alan Kings recent festival form, but he knows what to do with his juveniles.

Have I been wasting my day?

[opatcho]

I know it’s been on a lot of peoples radars for along time but just going to give my view after watching its races back. 3 starts ago it travelled like by far the best horse, gainford schooled Jody mcgarvey and that’s what got it beat. Then next race it was basically joint fav with the tide turns when saddle slipped and pulled up early. It’s 12lb better off with that horse now. Then last race it won very very easily, could have won by a lot further. Was it’s 1st race hurdle race on better ground and it’s best flat form was on better ground. Same mark as Jeff kidder last year 125 looks a gift and Rachel Blackmore booked. Looks a good bet at double figures

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...002#post366002

Yup, I like your thinking guys. Reason for the horse to improve significantly, will go better with better ground and pace. I like

[darlojim]

Townend saying Gaelic Warrior is his best chance of a winner on day 1

[Geegees]

Townend saying Gaelic Warrior is his best chance of a winner on day 1

Where did he say this?

[KevMc]

Where did he say this?

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/news/horse-racing/paul-townend-day-1-cheltenham-preview

[charlie]

Townend saying Gaelic Warrior is his best chance of a winner on day 1

The exact quote - 'If he can overcome his lack of experience, I would put him down as my strongest chance of the day'

First part of that sentence important as it contextualise the last part

[DenmanSacre]

I wasn't going to put this horse up until prices had gone out slightly but Tony Calvin has put him up and Betfair and a few others have reduced the price since last night.

The horse is Prairie Dancer, available at 33s with Bet365 BOG and also available at 25s (4 places) with Bet365 in the w/o Gaelic Warrior market.

Trained by Joseph O'Brien and ridden by JJ Slevin, the winning combo in 2019 with Band of Outlaws. He also runs Champion Green who has taken all of the attention for JOB.

I believe he's the highest rated flat horse in this with Sky Cutter with a rating of 91.

Raced 4 times over hurdles.

On debut he finished second to Ben Siegel in a decent maiden (Brazil, Doctor Churchill and Doctor Brown Bear finished behind). Was positioned in mid division, Ben Siegel got away around the bend with Doctor Brown Bear and Prairie Dancer has finished strongly to pick up Doctor Brown Bear comfortably but never going to catch the winner.

He then went to the Icare Allen Leopardstown maiden at Christmas, another decent maiden. JJ placed him behind the leaders but he lost his place round the bend with the leader falling backwards, pushing him from 3rd down to around 8th. Was finishing strongly until a mistake at the last but picked up again. Brazil and Doctor Brown Bear reversed placings with him from the first race, but I think PD was better than his placing here.

He then went to an open age maiden hurdle for his 3rd race. His RPR in this race was his lowest, but for me, this was a better performance than his previous 2 starts. The winner was Flame Bearer, who has since won a grade 2 novice hurdle, and Micro Manage finished half a length in front of PD. Micro Manage then just got touched into second by Highland Charge, who came out yesterday and won a grade 3 against Slip of the Tongue and Deploy the Getaway. It was a strong maiden, especially for a 4 year old, and PD was again strong at the finish.

He then finished second to Icare Allen last month in a grade 3. It was an odd running by PD. He led, then dropped back to last like he would be pulled up but he finished strongly again.

He comes here off a mark of 126 which I think he's ahead of.

JOB has now gone for the option of putting blinkers on him. As a flat horse, first time blinkers resulted in a win and he won 2 of the 6 races with blinkers on. His OR improved by 8 pounds and his RPR by 14 across the first 3 races he ran with blinkers on. Flaxen Flare was a winner for Elliott who raced with blinkers on the flat, got his hurdle mark without them and they were applied again for his Boodles win.

He's got experience in big fields, he should be able to hold his place in mid division as he has the flat speed and his hurdling is generally fine (bar some mistakes at the last hurdle in 3 of his races, which I'm hoping the blinkers will help with) but most importantly, he finishes each of his races strongly and if he's thereabouts coming to 2 out, he should be staying on for at least the place money.

I was hoping he would go unnoticed and drift to 40s or more, which he might, but the 25s w/o Gaelic Warrior looks a good bet to me at this time. I've put half stakes on the 33s BOG and half on the 25s w/o Gaelic Warrior. I'm hoping he will still drift but 33s for 6 places is good value and he has a better chance off the weights than a lot of the horses in front of him in the market IMO.

A more speculative bet will be Sky Cutter. Currently 66s with Bet365 and 50s in the w/o Gaelic Warrior market. I can't see him getting market support and he should be available at higher tomorrow.

He is of interest because:

• Joint highest flat rating of 91
• Wears a hood - Gaultstats trend that in 7 of the last 9 running, a horse with a hood has placed (only other horse with a hood on is Champion Green).
• Been tried in graded company - I always look for an outsider who has raced in graded company and been beaten as they seem to be overpriced compared to the horses running well in nothing races.

If he goes out to 100/1 or 66s in the w/o GW market, I'll probably make a small play.

[Lobos]

Townend saying Gaelic Warrior is his best chance of a winner on day 1

Looking at the rest of his you'd have to agree.