The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Craigy14]

Off 135 he'd have a geat chance.

He’s 142 is he not? Top weight.

[Exar Essay]

He’s 142 is he not? Top weight.

I think there might've been an implication in Run 4 Home's tweet ...

[Geegees]

Yep 142 and will be top weight

[Lobos]

Yep 142 and will be top weight

Won't run if the cert does surely. Just a precautionary entry.

[Zachx02]

Could it be another Rob James mount or can you not get claimers in this race?

[darlojim]

Could it be another Rob James mount or can you not get claimers in this race?

You can claim here..

Quilixios mk2

[Run4Home]

He’s 142 is he not? Top weight.

Take 7 off you’d imagine

[Geegees]

Won't run if the cert does surely. Just a precautionary entry.

I would hope not, a 7-10 claimer on board would make fil dor competitive IMO

[Craigy14]

Yeah good point haha

[Redbridge]

Fil Dor drifted to 7s WH

[Lobos]

I would hope not, a 7-10 claimer on board would make fil dor competitive IMO

Yep.........


For a place

[Lobos]

Gaelic Warrior into 2/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair

[Irish Rugby]

Gaelic Warrior into 2/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair

In the year where the bookies have been evermore tight, twas only to be expected. I don't lay but I can see the layers circling Gaelic Warrior next week.

[Lobos]

In the year where the bookies have been evermore tight, twas only to be expected. I don't lay but I can see the layers circling Gaelic Warrior next week.

Maybe those with 20/1 tickets will lay some off

[charlie]

Added Champion Green @ 15.5. A lot is being made of Gaelic Warrior being a stone well in - I think Champion Green could be thrown in off a mark of 125. On debut he was given an easy time and jumped well. On his second start he lost to Doctor Churchill (133) giving away 3lbs. On his third start his saddle slipped and he was pulled up early, no harm no foul. I thought it was interesting Champion Green went off 5/2 that day. He was vying for favouritism with The Tide Turns (now 137) and JP's other runner Brazil (now 137) wasn't fancied at all. Hard to read too much into this, but I thought it was interesting to note, especially given how he pissed in on his final start basically winning on the bridle beating Magic Word easily whilst giving away 7lbs.

I think figuring out if Champion Green is 'well in' lies on whether or not you think 133 credibly reflects Doctor Churchill's ability, and what form lines inform that number. DC has been given a mark of 133. After beating Champion Green, DC ran Justicialism a short head whilst giving away a stone. Justicialism followed up at Naas earning a mark of 118. The favourite that day was a horse called Magic Word who fell at the last. I took the view Magic Word would have given the winner a proper race and definitely beaten the third (now rated 121). So I think 133 for Doctor Churchill is about right, and had he stood, Magic Word would have earn't a mark of around 118.

So back to Champion Green. At Limerick he cruised into the race behind Doctor Churchill and was held in behind a wall of horses. It felt and looked deliberate. He gave DC weight and first run, but was closing well, so IMO you cant take the winning margin of that race too literally, if at all. Champion Green then won easily from the front without really coming off the bridle, giving the field 7lbs and pissing in vs Magic Word - it looked like he could have won by 10L if he wanted to.

There is no way that Doctor Churchill is an 8lbs better horse than Champion Green, and there is equally no way Champion Green is only a 7lbs better horse than Justicialism or Magic Word, no way. Champion Green was rated 92 on the flat so if we + 45 it would give him a mark of around 137, and that sort of mark is where he'd be if he had been campaigned to advertise his actual ability. A lot of people think the fav is a stone well in and are taking 9/4, but I think Champion Green is also a stone well in and can be backed at 9/1. Two other plus points over GW. JOB has won the race before which can't be said for Willie, and Champion Green has really good experience having competed against 71 runners in just 4 starts. Its that type of experience that stands juveniles in really good stead for a race like this.