The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[RoadToCheltenham]

Doctor Churchill, Ebasari, Iberique Du Seuil, Icare Allen and Lunar Power all entered at Fairyhouse on Saturday...

[Splinterboy82]

I'd say more likely for the Triumph. JP has a number of horses who could come here who would be better handicapped.

Not totally sure how you quantify that mate? If he’s badly handicapped, he’s not winning a Triumph in any case. Icare Allen is likely to go there as he’s only had the 2 runs & looks like a stayer so the race may suit better than at the DRF. What other JP juveniles are you thinking of for here that are better handicapped?

It’s the complete dark nature of this horse & the garbage opposition today that makes him so interesting for me - just don’t see how he can be assessed / adjusted in whatever he does today

[DenmanSacre]

Not totally sure how you quantify that mate? If he’s badly handicapped, he’s not winning a Triumph in any case. Icare Allen is likely to go there as he’s only had the 2 runs & looks like a stayer so the race may suit better than at the DRF. What other JP juveniles are you thinking of for here that are better handicapped?

It’s the complete dark nature of this horse & the garbage opposition today that makes him so interesting for me - just don’t see how he can be assessed / adjusted in whatever he does today

JP has Champion Green, Brazil and Iroko who could end up better handicapped. Icare Allen also entered for a 3rd run this weekend. If PT wins today, he's unbeaten in 3 and deserves his chance in the Triumph.

PT off 135 in this would be a no go for me for the following reasons (mainly to do with Gaelic Warrior):

1) The best French juveniles tend to be ran at Auteuil - PT has ran at Dieppe and Compiegne.

2) PT beat Mourinho has 4 and a quarter lengths giving 2 pounds. Mouinho Has was 5th in the Prix Cambacares, beaten 10 lengths. Gaelic Warrior is closely tied on early season form with Kyrov, Golden Sun and Imprenable - 1, 2 and 4 in the Prix Cambacares. Gaelic Warrior will be running off a lower mark.

3) Jonjo is an awful trainer IMO. I'd trust Willie to get more improvement out of Gaelic Warrior than Jonjo will get out of PT.

4) Well beaten on his only flat run at another low grade French track.

5) For JPs, Iroko would potentially be of interest to me here depending on how he looks on Saturday (if taking up the entry in the Adonis) - shaped well in the Grade 1 at Chepstow for a long way, I like Intense Raffles who beat him at Auteuil and Ivanohe who finished 3rd in that race has come out since and won twice at Auteuil, including beating Mourinho Has by 4 and a quarter lengths, receiving 2 pounds. Closely matched with PT but would be receiving 11 pounds from PT in a handicap in this country. Iroko has much more scope in his handicap mark than PT IMO.

I think I've talked myself into a cover bet on Iroko now for the Boodles!

[Splinterboy82]

JP has Champion Green, Brazil and Iroko who could end up better handicapped. Icare Allen also entered for a 3rd run this weekend. If PT wins today, he's unbeaten in 3 and deserves his chance in the Triumph.

PT off 135 in this would be a no go for me for the following reasons (mainly to do with Gaelic Warrior):

1) The best French juveniles tend to be ran at Auteuil - PT has ran at Dieppe and Compiegne.

2) PT beat Mourinho has 4 and a quarter lengths giving 2 pounds. Mouinho Has was 5th in the Prix Cambacares, beaten 10 lengths. Gaelic Warrior is closely tied on early season form with Kyrov, Golden Sun and Imprenable - 1, 2 and 4 in the Prix Cambacares. Gaelic Warrior will be running off a lower mark.

3) Jonjo is an awful trainer IMO. I'd trust Willie to get more improvement out of Gaelic Warrior than Jonjo will get out of PT.

4) Well beaten on his only flat run at another low grade French track.

5) For JPs, Iroko would potentially be of interest to me here depending on how he looks on Saturday (if taking up the entry in the Adonis) - shaped well in the Grade 1 at Chepstow for a long way, I like Intense Raffles who beat him at Auteuil and Ivanohe who finished 3rd in that race has come out since and won twice at Auteuil, including beating Mourinho Has by 4 and a quarter lengths, receiving 2 pounds. Closely matched with PT but would be receiving 11 pounds from PT in a handicap in this country. Iroko has much more scope in his handicap mark than PT IMO.

I think I've talked myself into a cover bet on Iroko now for the Boodles!

Haha, get the money down mate.

I totally agree on the whole, especially the bit around Jonjo. I’m already well covered on GW & agree think he’ll go off one of the shortest priced favs ever for this if getting there in top shape. I just found this JP horse fascinating based on such a high rating after 2 starts & the fact he’s as big as 5/6 in this dreadful looking 3 runner class 3 hcap today. I really don’t get why Jonjo continues to get these expensive French recruits for JP. Then again, I don’t get why Hobbs or a few others do either!

[Splinterboy82]

How PP/BF can cut Petit Ton to 8/1 off the back of that is beyond me! Scrambled home against 2 lowly rated opponents & jumped very average. I’d be hoping the handicapper drops him 7lbs & they’ve left a bit to work on or he won’t be sighted surely…

[Geegees]

How PP/BF can cut Petit Ton to 8/1 off the back of that is beyond me! Scrambled home against 2 lowly rated opponents & jumped very average. I’d be hoping the handicapper drops him 7lbs & they’ve left a bit to work on or he won’t be sighted surely…

Agree that he has to be dropped given the performance and opposition.

can’t see him being in the frame in March and would be surprised if he lined up

[Splinterboy82]

Agree that he has to be dropped given the performance and opposition.

can’t see him being in the frame in March and would be surprised if he lined up

Best priced 12s now! What am I missing here? he’s gone from being a dark one to looking an iffy jumper off an inflated French mark trained by Jonjo ffs - yet he’s 4pts shorter & single figures in places

[Kevloaf]

How PP/BF can cut Petit Ton to 8/1 off the back of that is beyond me! Scrambled home against 2 lowly rated opponents & jumped very average. I’d be hoping the handicapper drops him 7lbs & they’ve left a bit to work on or he won’t be sighted surely…

It surely depends on what you thought they wanted to do today?

What would winning easily 20L have done? What would getting beaten have done?

Certainly agree he's not a bet at single figures now.... but I think if he lines up on the day, if he did improve would you look back and think it's come from out of the blue (in terms of being a plot)?

Not every horse is a plot, and Jonjo wouldn't be my first choice though to execute one nowadays.

[Splinterboy82]

It surely depends on what you thought they wanted to do today?

What would winning easily 20L have done? What would getting beaten have done?

Certainly agree he's not a bet at single figures now.... but I think if he lines up on the day, if he did improve would you look back and think it's come from out of the blue (in terms of being a plot)?

Not every horse is a plot, and Jonjo wouldn't be my first choice though to execute one nowadays.

Well put it this way Kev, if they cut him off the back of that then winning by 20L on the snaff would have him challenging GW for fav. I’m not sure I expected him to win by further as such but I certainly would have expected him to jump better. Look, he’ll go there unbeaten in JPs colours so he’ll be punted into single figures I guess - I just wasn’t expecting him to be an 8/1 poke in a place after beating a couple of horses rated that low by such a small margin jumping that bad today. He’s one I’ll not back & let run personally - resisted the 16s earlier and certainly not turned onto the 12s best price now

[Bert]

Gavin Lynch is tipping up Doctor Brown Bear

[Kevloaf]

Well put it this way Kev, if they cut him off the back of that then winning by 20L on the snaff would have him challenging GW for fav. I’m not sure I expected him to win by further as such but I certainly would have expected him to jump better. Look, he’ll go there unbeaten in JPs colours so he’ll be punted into single figures I guess - I just wasn’t expecting him to be an 8/1 poke in a place after beating a couple of horses rated that low by such a small margin jumping that bad today. He’s one I’ll not back & let run personally - resisted the 16s earlier and certainly not turned onto the 12s best price now

Was his jumping not good because he was being held back? Would he jump better going a proper pace?

I haven't got around to actually watching it yet, just general pondering.

[KevMc]

Couldn’t back a Jonjo horse to win this even if I knew it was a stone well in.

Ebasari is the one for me. Won well in Cork beating Adamantly Chosen (franked the form since) and then been a noner the twice since for a mark. Travels and jumps, exactly what you want in this race. Gringo D’aubrelle got a mark of 130 and beat AC the same distance as Ebasari so I’d expect maybe a few pound less but 132ish UK looks very workable to me.

[Redbridge]

Mullins has spoken about most of his runners except the unmentionable one

[Madmoose]

Mullins has spoken about most of his runners except the unmentionable one

He’s a really interesting horse. His form in France is good and he has done some very good work since joining us. When we saw his handicap mark, we decided to aim him straight for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. He has jumped plenty of Irish-style hurdles here and we are very pleased with him.

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/stable-tours/willie-mullins

[Redbridge]

He’s a really interesting horse. His form in France is good and he has done some very good work since joining us. When we saw his handicap mark, we decided to aim him straight for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. He has jumped plenty of Irish-style hurdles here and we are very pleased with him.

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/st...willie-mullins

Thanks for that, it's a site I very rarely visit.

Better than Ruby's "He's Dark.....A dark bay"