The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[FinalFurlong91]

Britzka went off 11/8 fav

If they weren't trying hed have drifted like a barge

[punterorplonker]

Hey everyone! First post since the festival last year!

So white pepper there gets a quote for the boodles at 16s says twitter. Can't find it anywhere.
But anyway... Pepper is a mare and I can't find any mare running well in the bodles over the years??

I could be being stupid however... Or just rusty.

[Atlantic Viking]

To my eyes it looked like he was trying and just didn't travel/ wasn't good enough. IDS was a bit more 'interesting'.

[Nathaniel99999]

You'd have to be keen on Sea Sessions who looks to have a great profile for the Boodles. Won last time out as well which is a big plus.

Nope, Sea sessions going to be carrying more weight and weights reverses I think Calvados will beat him. Don't forget Calvados was staying on in that race and Sea sessions looked like he didnt win that much in hand myself. I could be wrong but thats how I judged it.

[Benjy23]

Hey everyone! First post since the festival last year!

So white pepper there gets a quote for the boodles at 16s says twitter. Can't find it anywhere.
But anyway... Pepper is a mare and I can't find any mare running well in the bodles over the years??

I could be being stupid however... Or just rusty.

Can't think of many recently. But Une Artiste and What A Charm both won not all that long ago... More recently though I can't think of too many going close. Riviere D'etel ran respectably enough last year.

The Mares Novice may have taken some runners away, but I can't think of many 4YO going well in that either off the top of my head?

[Might_Bite]

Run some trends stats for the boodles just out if interest. Have looked at the winners from all 17 cool running's of the race.

Age

• 100% of winners were 4 years old.

Sex

• 13/17 (76%) were geldings (I'm sure this probably just reflects the gender distribution of juveniles)

Weight

• Average and Median winning OR was 129
• Only 2 winners (Band of Outlaws and Dabiroun) had recorded an RPR higher than their OR (need to look into if its a rarity for runners to have RPRs higher than their OR. Or more likely, it just means they are all improving horses who have been hiding something)

(don't seem to be many obvious weight trends winners appear to come from all over the range - happy to be challenged on this)

Form

• The average number of previous lifetime runs (inc flat) was 9.5
• 17/17 had a minimum of 3 hurdle runs
• 15/17 (88%) winners had a minimum of 5 lifetime runs. The two that hadn't (Diego Du Charmil and Sanctuaire) were well found in the market and French breds
• 14/17 (82%) had won over hurdles
• 8/17 (47%) won on their last run

Course Form

• 17/17 had winners had not run at Cheltenham previously

Graded Form

• 2/17 had Grade/Group 1 form (think I'd discount this without looking at the number of runners in the field who had run in grade 1 races)
• A further 7/17 had Grade 2/3 form. Meaning 9/17 had graded form. No strong trend here

Days Break

• The average and median days since last run were 34 and 25 respectively
• 15/17 had run that year

Trainer

• 6 Irish and 11 UK trained winners, giving the UK the upper hand
• However Ireland have won the last 4 running's
• Gordon Elliott and Paul Nichols are only multiple winners of the race with 3 a piece

Betting

• 11/17 had and SP of 10/1 or bigger and 9/17 had SPs of 20/1 or bigger

Conclusion (>85% trends)

For the winner you are looking for:

1. 3 hurdle runs
2. No Cheltenham runs
3. 5 lifetime runs
4. Not to have run an RPR better than their OR

Honestly, a weak race in terms of identifying strong trends and its probably down to the age/inexperience of the horses involved. I need to start looking into the placed horses. Also let me know if there's other areas I should look at.

[ComplyOrDie]

Might_Bite They need 3 runs to get a rating, don't they, so this stat is a guarantee?

Also, I can't see any horse defying that age stat

[Might_Bite]

Might_Bite They need 3 runs to get a rating, don't they, so this stat is a guarantee?

Also, I can't see any horse defying that age stat

Yes thanks COD, might be tough to defy either!

[Lobos]

The main stat for me is 9/17 had SP of 20/1 or bigger so , imo, this is not a race to get involved in until the day itself.

[Might_Bite]

The main stat for me is 9/17 had SP of 20/1 or bigger so , imo, this is not a race to get involved in until the day itself.

That's what I took from it pretty much Lobos, much better off not getting heavily involved and taking advantage of place offers.

[Benjy23]

Sex[LIST][*]13/17 (76%) were geldings (I'm sure this probably just reflects the gender distribution of juveniles)

I'd have to check this but I suspect they're going to make up a lot less than 24% of the runners and this is a strong stat for the Mares... It certainly wouldn't put me off anyway.

Very fair comments on price start as well!

[Lobos]

That's what I took from it pretty much Lobos, much better off not getting heavily involved and taking advantage of place offers.

Absolutely. You'd get top 4 as a minimum on the day and possibly more places if a max field. Keep your ammo for the day.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes thanks COD, might be tough to defy either!

Good work though, love a good stat/trend

[Nwfb89]

Anyone backed iberique du seuil for this? I see he's entered at kempton on sat presumably just to see how the British hcapper rates him as can't see him actually running after running yesterday.

[Ray]

Anyone backed iberique du seuil for this? I see he's entered at kempton on sat presumably just to see how the British hcapper rates him as can't see him actually running after running yesterday.

Yeah hes one im keen on for this i doubt he goes again this weekend, just having a look aint they