The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Atlantic Viking]

This year Qualifiers:

Kendor - Won G1 at Longchamp over 1m - Tekao,
Anabaa - Won G3 at Longchamp, beat a neck in G1 - Byker, Morning Soldier
Daylami - Won G1 - Nusret
Peintre Celebre - Won G1 - Bad,
Kingmambo - Won G1 - Perseus Way
Dalakhani - Won G1 - Zanndabad
Sharmardal - Won G1 - Samuel Spade, Bringbackmemories
Poliglote - Won G3 - Fils De Roi,
Fragrant Mix - Won G2 - Romancero Le Dun,
Linamix - Won G1 - Thetys
Siyouni - Won G2 - By Your Side
Voix Du Nord - Won G1 - Isaline De Chandou
Sageburg - Won G1 - Jackpot De Choisel
Panoramic I - Won G2 - Jolly Nellerie
Giant's Causeway - Won G1 - Sundial
Xaar - Won G1 - Surac
Champ Elysees - Won G3 - Nikhi

Good stuff! From that, using solely the big trends on Gaultstats to start off with, you get the following dropping out:

• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before this - Perseus Way
• No winner that started its career under National Hunt rules did so in Britain or Ireland - Romancero Le Dun / Thetys
• British breds 0-62 in last 14 years - By Your Side
• Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams yet to win - Tekao
• Last nine winners rated between 125 and 139 - Fils De Roi / Sundial / Zanndabad / Bringbackmemories
• No last time BF from a GB or IRE race has ever won - Zanndabad / Bringbackmemories / Byker (Joint Fav LTO with Jazzy Matty)

At which point I dropped Zanndabad and Bringbackmemories for featuring in 2 strong trends.
Working with the existing list and using trends found from a mix of sources, again with those listed being the ones who don't meet the trend:

• 10 of the last 15 winners came into the race after a top 4 finish LTO - Sundial
• 10 of the last 14 winners had been sired by a Group One flat winner - Fils De Roi
• Five of the last six from the top 12 on the racecard - Morning Soldier, Fils De Roi, Sundial
• 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles - Sundial, Morning Soldier

This is one to bear in mind when final decs are with us - No winner wearing headgear since 2014.
For reference those who've worn headgear at some point are - LTO (Tekao), during their flat (Morning Soldier) or hurdles (Fils De Roi) career. Or both (Sundial).

Happy to cross off Sundial, Fils De Roi and Morning Soldier at this point, leaving:

Tekao
Byker
Bad
Samuel Spade

• 9 from last 12 winners had their last run within the last 32 days - Tekao, Bad.
• 1 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites - Tekao (at this stage)
• 9 of the last 18 winners started their career in France - Byker, Samuel Spade

Then this wonderfully scientific one from Gaultstats:

• 12 of the 18 winners had the letter A in the first three letters of their names - Tekao, Byker.

I got bored after that, but at the prices I now quite like Samuel Spade.

[Black Dog]

….Rachel B confirmed as riding Bad.

Probably good.

[Birds Nest]

Good stuff! From that, using solely the big trends on Gaultstats to start off with, you get the following dropping out:

• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before this - Perseus Way
• No winner that started its career under National Hunt rules did so in Britain or Ireland - Romancero Le Dun / Thetys
• British breds 0-62 in last 14 years - By Your Side
• Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams yet to win - Tekao
• Last nine winners rated between 125 and 139 - Fils De Roi / Sundial / Zanndabad / Bringbackmemories
• No last time BF from a GB or IRE race has ever won - Zanndabad / Bringbackmemories / Byker (Joint Fav LTO with Jazzy Matty)

At which point I dropped Zanndabad and Bringbackmemories for featuring in 2 strong trends.
Working with the existing list and using trends found from a mix of sources, again with those listed being the ones who don't meet the trend:

• 10 of the last 15 winners came into the race after a top 4 finish LTO - Sundial
• 10 of the last 14 winners had been sired by a Group One flat winner - Fils De Roi
• Five of the last six from the top 12 on the racecard - Morning Soldier, Fils De Roi, Sundial
• 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles - Sundial, Morning Soldier

This is one to bear in mind when final decs are with us - No winner wearing headgear since 2014.
For reference those who've worn headgear at some point are - LTO (Tekao), during their flat (Morning Soldier) or hurdles (Fils De Roi) career. Or both (Sundial).

Happy to cross off Sundial, Fils De Roi and Morning Soldier at this point, leaving:

Tekao
Byker
Bad
Samuel Spade

• 9 from last 12 winners had their last run within the last 32 days - Tekao, Bad.
• 1 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites - Tekao (at this stage)
• 9 of the last 18 winners started their career in France - Byker, Samuel Spade

Then this wonderfully scientific one from Gaultstats:

• 12 of the 18 winners had the letter A in the first three letters of their names - Tekao, Byker.

I got bored after that, but at the prices I now quite like Samuel Spade.

Thanks for putting thay together AV interestimg reading.

[Lobos]

Thanks AV. Not looked at that race at all so if I back one it'll probably be him !

[nortonscoin200]

Danny Mullins jocked up for SIR ALLEN - that's tipped the scales for me.

Won the key Naas race used by Brazil, Jeff Kidder and Band Of Outlaws on their way to Festival glory.

And Danny gets the nod after Sir Allen was ridden by a 7lb claimer in his three previous runs.

On a decent mark - below his latest rpr - and will be on a nice weight IF McTeague runs.

Apologies to Folski (sensational research) that he doesn't meet the dam's-sire-group-winner-at -Longchamp stat....but Showcasing did win a maiden at Le Yarbouche

4pts win SIR ALLEN (Boo) at 11-1
0.5pts SIR ALLEN (Boo) at 20-1 double odds boost
1pt win double NASSALAM (Ult) at 8-1 and SIR ALLEN (Boo) at 10-1

[DenmanSacre]

Not sure if this was known prior to decs but O'Sullivan jocked on Jazzy Matty at the minute.

[Bayoffreedom]

Not sure if this was known prior to decs but O'Sullivan jocked on Jazzy Matty at the minute.

and claiming 3lb compared to his Irish 5lb claim

[DenmanSacre]

Pauling out of bed and Bad and SS declared.

[nortonscoin200]

Scratched this post cos I don't know what the f*** is going on.

But Donagh Meyler is jocked up on McTeague in the BHA list so it looks like he might be running.

Just don't take my word for it.

[delsie777]

I've not contributed much this year - but to make up for it, I will offer this nugget... Tekao is the best bet of the Festival at the price. A good race but he is just much better than the bunch. Take all the 5/1 you can get and perm him over whatever you like and hope for a big price second.

[Geegees]

I've not contributed much this year - but to make up for it, I will offer this nugget... Tekao is the best bet of the Festival at the price. A good race but he is just much better than the bunch. Take all the 5/1 you can get and perm him over whatever you like and hope for a big price second.

What’s behind the confidence

[Zachx02]

I've not contributed much this year - but to make up for it, I will offer this nugget... Tekao is the best bet of the Festival at the price. A good race but he is just much better than the bunch. Take all the 5/1 you can get and perm him over whatever you like and hope for a big price second.

5/1 for a horse I don't think finds anything off the bridle and it doesnt look like he's ahead of his mark just looks thrown in as he isnt good enough for the triumph, I'll pass

[Kevloaf]

[delsie777]

5/1 for a horse I don't think finds anything off the bridle and it doesnt look like he's ahead of his mark just looks thrown in as he isnt good enough for the triumph, I'll pass

I'm not sure that demonstrating your true ability in advance is the way forward when aiming at the Boodles. Looking as if you find nothing off the bridle and lack a turn of foot is normally the best policy.

[Kevloaf]

I'm not sure that demonstrating your true ability in advance is the way forward when aiming at the Boodles. Looking as if you find nothing off the bridle and lack a turn of foot is normally the best policy.

That for me, wouldn't be how Willie would usually go about things.

Other trainers, definitely. Willie, I think they start out by running on merit personally. Plan can change after that, but I don't see Tekao as a plot myself, I think he's run to about where he is. That might be good enough still, as he's achieved more than plenty of these have.... but one of them will have been fully hiding their ability ....

....and I'd rather know a horse will find for pressure, than hope it.

He could win on the snaff I suppose, I don't disagree that's he's potentially the best of them.


Not long until we find out