The BOODLES Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Scooby91]

Someone should ask the handicapper how he got that mark ?
I've seen it mentioned several times recently that his French mark is 139. Only recently has this started to get mentioned, Scooby seemed to say they had handicapped him based on his French mark alone !!

The only reason I didn't back him when he got his entry at the Cheltenham meeting early in the season, was because I looked at the form and thought he'd be lucky to get a rating below 140.
So for that reason and the fact it was the boodles and antepost, I ruled out having a bet on him then.

I was right, the handicapper is wrong and everyone who backed him then are lucky mugs.

Be a fun watch though as he should cruise up like he's running loose.

Just seen this.. it was definitly 127 in France when I asked, and that was before the handicap win of the 2nd in the cambaceres, and kyrov winning etc...

I double checked after it, and gave the same answer. he's gone with 129 when he saw him near fav...

They ask the French handicapper and that was before the collateral form of the handicap, and the cambaceres... and still left gave the nark as the same as before it. I double checked his mark prior to putting him up again to make sure that was the case.

Joe chambers has worked it out on 2.2pounds a kilo on his revised mark, that how he has come to his mark.. I'm assuming that they never asked the French again, after i had initially asked, so it didn't get revised.

[Brital]

Sky cutter is 125/1 with B365 DS.

Good post by the way, I liked your reasoning

[Redbridge]

This is a hustle bustle race from the off with one of the largest fields specially off the the turn in for home so what tactics and pace does anyone foresee.
Without seeing GW will he have the pace to settle handy from the off or will he be exposed to the hustle and bustle of the pack and how does he cope with this.

[DenmanSacre]

Sky cutter is 125/1 with B365 DS.

Good post by the way, I liked your reasoning

Thanks. Taken it. 66s without Gaelic Warrior and Tide Turns so taken that as well.

[Exar Essay]

This is a hustle bustle race from the off with one of the largest fields specially off the the turn in for home so what tactics and pace does anyone foresee.
Without seeing GW will he have the pace to settle handy from the off or will he be exposed to the hustle and bustle of the pack and how does he cope with this.

It's not quite the same, but the race which gave him his 139 rating was a 14 runner field. I wouldn't be too worried about it on that basis. But you'd want him to be bombproof at 5/2 or whatever he is now.

[robith]

Dammit, Praire Dancer was on my shortlist but was waiting for closer to the time, damn you Calvin

[KevMc]

The prices will be pushed again tomorrow morning, no need to panic on prices at this stage.

[DenmanSacre]

Dammit, Praire Dancer was on my shortlist but was waiting for closer to the time, damn you Calvin

Yeah I've been waiting since his 3rd run before saying something on here. I only saw his article on an off chance and within an hour of the article Betfair had cut his price in the w/o market and then cut the main price, with others following late last night.

I've had a small bet and got the BOG but one I'll be hoping to go out again in price again tomorrow morning as KevMc states.

[isitmarchyet]

Some wild prices around in this race now. Backed far too many of the 66/1 shots with Bet365. Only small stakes though.

Doctor Churchill out to 66s, 80s with Unibet (if Oddschecker is right) just seems huge for an Elliott/Gainford horse. Kevloaf gave him a little mention on the podcast.

[Kevloaf]

Some wild prices around in this race now. Backed far too many of the 66/1 shots with Bet365. Only small stakes though.

Doctor Churchill out to 66s, 80s with Unibet (if Oddschecker is right) just seems huge for an Elliott/Gainford horse. Kevloaf gave him a little mention on the podcast.

Some wild prices in the without Gaelic Warrior market as well

[SeanRock]

I’ve been tipping away at Doctor Churchill with free bets all week, think he’s a shade overlooked in the market!

[ComplyOrDie]

I’ve been tipping away at Doctor Churchill with free bets all week, think he’s a shade overlooked in the market!

Possibly ground dependant?

Three flat runs, his best was on heavy, multiple hurdles runs now, his best and only win, on heavy. Not something I'd be confident about, but the ground was something I had noted about him.

[SeanRock]

Possibly ground dependant?

Three flat runs, his best was on heavy, multiple hurdles runs now, his best and only win, on heavy. Not something I'd be confident about, but the ground was something I had noted about him.

Pierce Molony seems to think he’ll go close, he’s improving with every run & there was a lot to like about his Limerick performance, found loads for pressure, his jumping can be a little sketchy however.

[Kevloaf]

A "free" 1 pound bet from Ladbrokes.....

Straight onto Doctor Churchill at 80/1

That'll pay for 7 pints. Or zero.

[Supermaster]

Not a race I have much confidence about!

Petit Tonnerre/Brazil/Bell Ex One/Sea Sessions.

Incredibly Mullins doesn't have a good record so I'm struggling to see why his French horse (no wins) with no UK/Ire form is so well fancied.
Guess there must be a huge vibe about it. It'll be funny if his other outsider (Feigh) wins - shades of Ryan Price and Hill House.
edit: Actually Feigh is live outsider for this one