The CORAL CUP Handicap Hurdle

[DenmanSacre]

Been through this race this morning.
Only left with 2 in my team after declarations.
Be Aware & Comfort Zone, two of the more obvious ones in the lead up.

But as history suggests, you can get horses placed in this off decent prices.

I had Vischio in my team but cashed the other day. B365 only shifted prices from 14's to 16's after her run at Kelso. I saw some were going 25's so got out of it.
I will be re backing her at 25's as her Kelso run was actually eyecatching with a view to the Coral Cup IMO.

But the one that stood out today at the prices was Colonel Mustard (apologies if someone's already mentioned, as I've not checked through the thread)
I won;t go into chapter and verse but 33-1 6 places PP is value IMO.

His form this season stacks up nicely with runs close up to Lucky Place & Kitzbuhel. And he gets to run off 146 with a very good claimer taking off 5lb.
The price reflects the doubt over the trip, but at 10yr old now, and a horse that has often been campaigned for a handicap of this nature (i.e not always putting up his best) I think he's worth chancing.

I mentioned the jockey booking on the decs thread. Not had a look at Colonel Mustard for this as I'll do it tomorrow evening but he always runs his race and the 5 pounds off is handy. Hopefully he stays at his current price until tomorrow evening when I can have a look.

I'm left with Comfort Zone and done Bunting as soon as it was confirmed Paul was on board. Just going to back any he's on in handicap hurdles so should only be the County left and I think he'll be on Absurde if he's declared.

[Yosser]

I mentioned the jockey booking on the decs thread. Not had a look at Colonel Mustard for this as I'll do it tomorrow evening but he always runs his race and the 5 pounds off is handy. Hopefully he stays at his current price until tomorrow evening when I can have a look.

I'm left with Comfort Zone and done Bunting as soon as it was confirmed Paul was on board. Just going to back any he's on in handicap hurdles so should only be the County left and I think he'll be on Absurde if he's declared.

I am hoping he is on Ethical Diamond he was my autumn pick with Gaucher for the County. The way Gaucher ran yesterday, i bet they wish they had waited.

[DenmanSacre]

I am hoping he is on Ethical Diamond he was my autumn pick with Gaucher for the County. The way Gaucher ran yesterday, i bet they wish they had waited.

Be difficult to jump off Absurde based on his run last year but also got Kargese in there as well. Its a year where even if Paul doesn't ride yours, they've still got a good chance. Can see Danny on Kargese if Paul doesn't pick her but not sure who would be on Ethical Diamond. They may not even take Absurde either and I wouldn't be sure now which one he'd pick out of Kargese and Ethical Diamond. They may have ruined his mark though last time.

I'm all over Lark in the Mornin though if Kopeck de Mee doesn't turn up.

[Liammet]

Be difficult to jump off Absurde based on his run last year but also got Kargese in there as well. Its a year where even if Paul doesn't ride yours, they've still got a good chance. Can see Danny on Kargese if Paul doesn't pick her but not sure who would be on Ethical Diamond. They may not even take Absurde either and I wouldn't be sure now which one he'd pick out of Kargese and Ethical Diamond. They may have ruined his mark though last time.

I'm all over Lark in the Mornin though if Kopeck de Mee doesn't turn up.

I have a feeling Patrick will be on Kargese

Might depend on how he manages to get Salvador to settle tomorrow

Rachel might be an alternative as riding Murcia for the owner tomorrow

[FinalFurlong91]

I have a feeling Patrick will be on Kargese

Might depend on how he manages to get Salvador to settle tomorrow

Rachel might be an alternative as riding Murcia for the owner tomorrow

Danny rode her a couple of times last season and is on jade de grugy in the mares for the same owner

I'd be very surprised if Paul or danny weren't on her

[FinalFurlong91]

Only just noticed bunting got declared and Paul is on.

Wasn't really expecting him to run here as he's not that experienced. Least i can console myself with him being a value loser having taken 20s nrnb when he falls out the back of the tele.

[NeptuneByANose]

Quite like Beat The Bat (25/1) away from the top of the market, although I’m not sure if this is the plan. He’ll need a bit of luck to get in, too.

He has some nice Cheltenham form. Although Dysart Enos hasn’t advertised it brilliantly this year, he has run really well in some top handicaps over an inadequate trip.

There is a lot to like about his reappearance run, while 2m
round Windsor didn’t suit next time. Despite that, he plugged on nicely and then went to the now William Hill
hurdle to further advertise his need for a step up in trip.

Off the bridle a long way out, he was outpaced but stayed on up the long straight to finish 5th.

When finally faced with another half mile, I think he has a bit in hand off 133. He’d have a nice low weight if getting in, too. He’d have his chance.

Happy to see him declared. Will have to break some trends to win off this lowly mark, but he has been strong in the early market. Time to go over the final field again, though. Get the coffee on!

[Kevloaf]

Happy to see him declared. Will have to break some trends to win off this lowly mark, but he has been strong in the early market. Time to go over the final field again, though. Get the coffee on!

Have a profile picture for all your hard work


I thought Beckett Rock was over priced compared to Bunting ...... if that helps

[Odin]

Have a profile picture for all your hard work

Bit harsh giving him a picture where it looks like Neptune loses by a nose no?

Feels like a distortion of reality

[Black Dog]

Bit harsh giving him a picture where it looks like Neptune loses by a nose no?

Feels like a distortion of reality

It is the reality I choose to remember

[Kevloaf]

Bit harsh giving him a picture where it looks like Neptune loses by a nose no?

Feels like a distortion of reality

I thought that when I was looking for the picture, but we all know he won it from there .... it's a great picture to be fair

[Burrough Hill Man]

Being well supported now. I'm on at 33's but best priced 14's now

[Burrough Hill Man]

[QUOTE=Burrough Hill Man;n497436]Sandor Clegane here for me. Think the drop back in trip off a fast pace will be ideal for him.
The race tends to be kind to graded horses stepping down to h'caps.[/QUOTE

Being well supported now. I'm on at 33's best priced 14's now

[AaronLad]

I used gault stats trends for 2 races yesterday.
The ultima where I was left with The short go and the boodles where I was left with puturhandstogether and slurricane.
I know its terrible after timing but thats why im posting this today because of yesterdays success, I hope this one is just as successful.

So the coral cup the last 7 individual winners had won to listed level minimum. This takes 14 out leaving 12.
This is an important trend imo, the horse has shown they have ability to win at this level.

The last 10 had won a race at 2m2f to 2m6f.
This takes out a further 2.
I think having won at or around the distance is a strong trait to have.

10 of the last 11 trained in Ireland, by Henderson or Skelton. This takes out a further 3, leaving just 7.

One winner older than 8 since 2009.
3 more go with this trend, 4 left.
Age trend pretty important.

12 of the last 15 had previously run at cheltenham.
1 goes (vischio)
course experience looks to be vital in recent years.

13 of the last 15 had no more than 4 previous runs that season. 2 go maxuum and al gasparo.

There was one more trend i wouldve used which was 15 of the last 16 had a bha rating of at least 138.
The one I'm left with meets that trend too.

Sa fureur 25/1

[robith]

I used gault stats trends for 2 races yesterday.
The ultima where I was left with The short go and the boodles where I was left with puturhandstogether and slurricane.
I know its terrible after timing but thats why im posting this today because of yesterdays success, I hope this one is just as successful.

So the coral cup the last 7 individual winners had won to listed level minimum. This takes 14 out leaving 12.
This is an important trend imo, the horse has shown they have ability to win at this level.

The last 10 had won a race at 2m2f to 2m6f.
This takes out a further 2.
I think having won at or around the distance is a strong trait to have.

10 of the last 11 trained in Ireland, by Henderson or Skelton. This takes out a further 3, leaving just 7.

One winner older than 8 since 2009.
3 more go with this trend, 4 left.
Age trend pretty important.

12 of the last 15 had previously run at cheltenham.
1 goes (vischio)
course experience looks to be vital in recent years.

13 of the last 15 had no more than 4 previous runs that season. 2 go maxuum and al gasparo.

There was one more trend i wouldve used which was 15 of the last 16 had a bha rating of at least 138.
The one I'm left with meets that trend too.

Sa fureur 25/1

worth mentioning though from the GS ones the mares handicap Vischio ran in at the DRF has a good place rate in this race, but then I'm not sure her price is big enough to playing if you're not sure she'll win.

I felt Impose Toi went pretty close on Bryan's stats too, depends on the weighting you put on each one - Hendo course winners have a great record here