The CORAL CUP Handicap Hurdle

[ToniC]

May get 4lb at home, then ~6 tax on top. Would be very unlikely yeah you’d have to say, would have scraped in last year, but probably an anomaly. But NRNB.

Got 4lb taking her up to 125. Be hoping to be on the higher end of taxation to even get a run, though with party central getting 14lb for finishing just in front I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case.

Think 20s NRNB is fair enough.

[Jrow]

With call me lyreen winning yesterday after showing no form I think its safe to say when backing an elliot horse in a handicap, recent form is mostly irrelevant. So ive been watching replays of Duffle Coats runs this season and hes simply not been put in the races and dropped a few lbs in the process. He already has winning form at cheltenham, when giving weight and a beating to Adagio and it looks as though they could be lining him up for something and it may be this.

[Stormez]

With call me lyreen winning yesterday after showing no form I think its safe to say when backing an elliot horse in a handicap, recent form is mostly irrelevant. So ive been watching replays of Duffle Coats runs this season and hes simply not been put in the races and dropped a few lbs in the process. He already has winning form at cheltenham, when giving weight and a beating to Adagio and it looks as though they could be lining him up for something and it may be this.

Possibly. My concern with Duffle Coat is that he couldn’t get qualified for the Pertemps.

I saw him as a 3 miler at the start of the season, and the entry in the qualifier seemed to confirm this. He could have snuck into a place without incurring a rise then continued to run round at the back of races to drop his mark but even in that race he was poor.

Even if the Coral Cup was the target the Pertemps would’ve been a nice alternative to have.

But I was impressed with him last year & his win at Cheltenham now looks even better, so he’s one I could envisage talking myself into nearer the time.

[Spectre]

He’s a conundrum. Either something physical or mental is holding him back, or he’s hiding in plain sight. I don’t think the latter would surprise anyone though. Backable now? No. But could you resist at 20/1 on a final entry?

[Lbur4288]

Connections said they'd run the Lanzarote with a view of the Mares Hurdle if that went well and if not they'd look at something else.

I have said a lot similar to others in that I think she's ahead of her mark of 140 and following a similar path to Dame de Compagnie. If you have a look at the market for the Coral Cup you can immediately take a lot out as they'll either go elsewhere or the race is just unlikely to be workable with the marks they have. This is also a race that mares do well in with the aforementioned DDC and Heaven Help Us winning the last two. I honestly thought Marie's Rock was a standout bet at 20s so to be pushed out to 33s is even better and I'm prepared to have a go before NRNB.

I think she's looking a great bet for this now.

[Odin]

I think she's looking a great bet for this now.

I suspect she goes mares now. Happy to have got some of the 66/1 today and mares. I'd fancy her here as well (and have backed her for it), but don't think she'll end up here

[Lbur4288]

I suspect she goes mares now. Happy to have got some of the 66/1 today and mares. I'd fancy her here as well (and have backed her for it), but don't think she'll end up here

It could go either way but that trip today was over the same trip as the Coral Cup and I see no reason to drop back in trip against better horses in the Mares Hurdle.

[Quevega]

It could go either way but that trip today was over the same trip as the Coral Cup and I see no reason to drop back in trip against better horses in the Mares Hurdle.

Will depend a little on her new mark.
I'd imagine at least 4lb, but it's a hard one to rate as the second ran way ahead of her mark and indefatigible was giving weight and probably below par.
I'd say anything around 4 or 5lb and the Coral Cup would still be tempting for connections.
It would definitely suit her better to get a tow into the race for as long as possible.
She might get that in a mares hurdle as well though.

[Odin]

It could go either way but that trip today was over the same trip as the Coral Cup and I see no reason to drop back in trip against better horses in the Mares Hurdle.

See your point but only a furlong difference between Mares and Coral. Guess a lot will depend on what Mr Handicapper does. I'm not looking to cash out my Coral Hurdle bets and think she'd have a better chance there, but I'd be surprised based on the quotes I've heard/seen if they decided to go that route so just wanted to give word of warning

[Lbur4288]

See your point but only a furlong difference between Mares and Coral. Guess a lot will depend on what Mr Handicapper does. I'm not looking to cash out my Coral Hurdle bets and think she'd have a better chance there, but I'd be surprised based on the quotes I've heard/seen if they decided to go that route so just wanted to give word of warning

I'm always getting the Mares/MNH trips mixed up so whilst my point about the drop back in trip is technically correct it's certainly not what I meant originally. Everything else I stick by, I know that you have to have a bit about you to win a Cheltenham handicap and I don't think her mark of 140 will be dramatically affected on the back of today's run. I know the connections have talked up the Mares Hurdle (before the Lanzarote) and obviously hold her in high regard which is why I'm inclined to think they might think they can expose a potentially lenient mark in the CC (assuming I'm correct about the handicapper). All fun and games.

[Odin]

I'm always getting the Mares/MNH trips mixed up so whilst my point about the drop back in trip is technically correct it's certainly not what I meant originally. Everything else I stick by, I know that you have to have a bit about you to win a Cheltenham handicap and I don't think her mark of 140 will be dramatically affected on the back of today's run. I know the connections have talked up the Mares Hurdle (before the Lanzarote) and obviously hold her in high regard which is why I'm inclined to think they might think they can expose a potentially lenient mark in the CC (assuming I'm correct about the handicapper). All fun and games.

Yeah that's fair. I'd be happy for her to go CC and think he'd have a better chance there so we shall see what happens

[Nathaniel99999]

Looks like I'm changing my mind for this race for the 3rd time since I've realised today when Glory and fortune won a horse he finished I think half a length previously was Ch'tibello 3 runs back over 2m 5f. Ch'tibello back then was marked 147 and now is 142 since finishing 5th and glory and fortune was 4th and Glory and Fortune has finished 2nd to Epatante, and won today. So I'm thinking is Skelton going to run Ch'tibello in this since the horse has won at Cheltenham before and is now on an even better mark this year?

[Quevega]

Looks like I'm changing my mind for this race for the 3rd time since I've realised today when Glory and fortune won a horse he finished I think half a length previously was Ch'tibello 3 runs back over 2m 5f. Ch'tibello back then was marked 147 and now is 142 since finishing 5th and glory and fortune was 4th and Glory and Fortune has finished 2nd to Eparante, and won today. So I'm thinking is Skelton going to run Ch'tibello in this since the horse has won at Cheltenham before and is now on an even better mark this year?

When I read this - It all speeds up in my head.

[charlie]

I think Finest Evermore @ 16/1 NRNB (in case she goes Mares Hurdle) is a really good bet to be the third mare to win this in as many years. I thought her seasonal reappearance run was really eye catching and the same owners of Heaven Help Us will be eyeing back to back wins in this. Supported from 25 into 12 on the day, settled, jumped well, looked like she'd fall out the back of the telly turning in but rallied impressively after 388 days off. I love seeing horses do that at Leopardstown because the incline is greater than Cheltenham so it bodes well for a strong uphill finish. All the horses ahead of Finest Evermore had run at least once, so with fitness on their side I thought she lost little in defeat, and, that the market support was telling given the opposition she was facing and giving 3lbs to Heaven Help Us. Her form is quite hard to weigh up because she hasn't competed much since 4yo, nor has she run in many deep races. We can see though that at 4yo she was beating now 125-135 rated horses 15+ lengths without ever being asked a question. She smashed Lynwood Gold (130) 13L and that horse was ludicrously well supported in last years Pertemps before getting injured. She beat Saint D'oroux 19L who has just won off a mark of 135. Even when disappointing at 8/13 she was beating 125 hurdlers easily, and we're talking 2+ years ago now. If she has developed physically and matured as her last run would suggest, I think 137 plus whatever she is taxed by the UK handicapper could place her as really well handicapped. She's by Yeats who produces festival winners, she's trained by Willie, she'll secure a top jockey and I think she's a genuine player in whatever race she goes for.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think Finest Evermore @ 16/1 NRNB (in case she goes Mares Hurdle) is a really good bet to be the third mare to win this in as many years. I thought her seasonal reappearance run was really eye catching and the same owners of Heaven Help Us will be eyeing back to back wins in this. Supported from 25 into 12 on the day, settled, jumped well, looked like she'd fall out the back of the telly turning in but rallied impressively after 388 days off. I love seeing horses do that at Leopardstown because the incline is greater than Cheltenham so it bodes well for a strong uphill finish. All the horses ahead of Finest Evermore had run at least once, so with fitness on their side I thought she lost little in defeat, and, that the market support was telling given the opposition she was facing and giving 3lbs to Heaven Help Us. Her form is quite hard to weigh up because she hasn't competed much since 4yo, nor has she run in many deep races. We can see though that at 4yo she was beating now 125-135 rated horses 15+ lengths without ever being asked a question. She smashed Lynwood Gold (130) 13L and that horse was ludicrously well supported in last years Pertemps before getting injured. She beat Saint D'oroux 19L who has just won off a mark of 135. Even when disappointing at 8/13 she was beating 125 hurdlers easily, and we're talking 2+ years ago now. If she has developed physically and matured as her last run would suggest, I think 137 plus whatever she is taxed by the UK handicapper could place her as really well handicapped. She's by Yeats who produces festival winners, she's trained by Willie, she'll secure a top jockey and I think she's a genuine player in whatever race she goes for.

A good write up Charlie, and I hope you're right. I can't remember who put her up a while back on here, but someone did, and was one of the reasons I looked into her profile and eventually backed her for the race as well. I think she has a cracking chance. In fact, I might even make her my biggest winner in the race, although that's probably putting the mockers on her as it's not a race I usually do well in