The CORAL CUP Handicap Hurdle

[Nwfb89]

I had all three fortunately, which is rare in the Coral cup, although Langer Dan was far from my best winner of the three. So i didn't exactly celebrate either.

Nice picking always good when youve got the horses that are fightingout the finish, Guessing you forgot to do the tricast?

[HesTheOne]

Like Benjy says, he has plenty to place and jockeys to arrange etc.
But his best backed right now are Majeste and Joe.
I've backed both for both.

His others all look less likely to attract support right now, so no rush to back them, who knows though on the day.

Camprond looked like his Coral cup best chance and had a similar nothing run around musslebrough a couple of weeks prior.
Think he drifted a fair bit to 20-1 SP on the day though, but can't remember for sure.

Waterford Whispers was flying under the radar for Pipe - I doubt he will be for much longer after that preview evening.

[Quevega]

Waterford Whispers was flying under the radar for Pipe - I doubt he will be for much longer after that preview evening.

Backed that as well, but looks like he won't get in so not the best Plot But need to be on just on case

[HesTheOne]

Backed that as well, but looks like he won't get in so not the best Plot But need to be on just on case

Realised I’m in the wrong thread too, ignore me

[AaronLad]

I had all three fortunately, which is rare in the Coral cup, although Langer Dan was far from my best winner of the three. So i didn't exactly celebrate either.

Probably only backed 22

[Saxon Warrior]

If Sa majeste gets 145 it has to be a wheelbarrow job right? I just can't see how he gets less than 147 (Irish collateral for noble yeats and English tax)

I think the Limerick race has two Ratings edges to it, and neither are right to assume as sound, as Noble Yeats skews them both.

The Low Rating pessimism of the form

1st Sa Majeste

The 2nd Noble Yeats
beaten 4 lengths, at levels, having his 1st race for 7 months
....and racing over a 2M4F trip far short of his best.

The 3rd Just Three
OR 105
receiving 16lbs from Sa Maj and NY
beaten 9 lengths by Sa Majeste, and 5 lengths by Noble Yeats


So obviously it looks like NY didn't run close to his best, based on the 3rd place runner.

Noble Yeats
105 + 16 + 5 = ran to 126?

Sa Majeste
105 + 16 +9 = ran to 130?

Just Three
raised 2lbs for that run to 107, beaten twice since and still rated 107.

OR

The High Rating optimism of the form

You could flip it the other way and say

Noble Yeats is now 152
After a Cleeve Hurdle win, getting all the allowances

Taken literally means

Sa Majeste
152 + 4 length win is a 156 horse?

Just Three
152 less 5 lengths, less 16lbs weight
is a 131 horse
which recent history this last 2 months shows he isn't

Solution

Quite literally the form either way doesn't stack up to allow Sa Majeste a definitive mark, and he has to have a guesstimate one.

HRI have decided that
Sa Majeste is rated 140 in their handicap.

That's not far off halfway between the above High, Low, estimate of the 2nd and 3rd horses current ability which is 45lbs apart.

Sa Majeste
High 156
Low 131
from above race assessment to the 2nd and 3rd current marks.

So I can see why HRI say he's no more a 156 horse than a 131 horse, so they're going closer to middle ground on the assessment and see what he does from that 140 mark.

Could Noble Yeats run close to the 152 level he ran to over 3M in a hurdle race, in a 2M4F Hurdle race on his first start back?

The answer on the day was no, not close, based on the 3rd horse.
He ran 21lbs better than a 105 OR horse.

Then improved markedly for his 2nd start over 3M to 152.

If the BHA take a similar view by going straight down the middle of those 156/131 ratings, then Sa Majeste would get 143 or 144

If he did, that would imply that Noble Yeats ran to 139 on his Seasonal debut then improved to 152 when stepped up in trip against much better opposition in a fast run race.

Be the most interesting Hcap Hurdle mark to look out for when they land.

[The Fellow]

Willie has of course phoned the handicapper and already knows what mark they will get

[Quevega]

Probably only backed 22

can’t remember but coral cup usually around 6 as it’s one of the most difficult handicaps. Was just a lucky/unlucky year.

[Odin]

Saxon Warrior


Yeah, good summary and definitely more detailed than I'd looked at it.

Completely agree that there's no chance NY ran to his best that day and so by extension there's no way that Sa Majeste has yet shown himself to be a 156 horse. It just seems an obvious play with IRE 140 to give him the 6lbs (approximate average of all Irish horses) to take him out of the Pipe and there's definitely scope to collaterally say NY won next time so here's another lb or 2. Will be very interesting to see what happens as you say though and as with Q, I'm very jealous that you're on at the prices you are.

[Saxon Warrior]

Saxon Warrior
Yeah, good summary and definitely more detailed than I'd looked at it.

Will be very interesting to see what happens as you say though and as with Q, I'm very jealous that you're on at the prices you are.

I will no doubt be taking my slip into the shop to get my stake back
rather than having the chance to cheer him home.

I'd put him in my tracker after that Christmas win, and when WH went NRNB on all races early in the New Year,

● I reviewed all the races
● saw the Sa Majeste price
● got in my car, and took the price in the shop

I've got one horse as backup already in the Pipe, and may be looking for a second one on weights day.

Now I'm about to find out how good a move that drive to the shop was

[jrjr]

Hadn’t realised that First Street’s original +5 for the Lossiemouth race has been changed to +2 putting him on a mark of 143. He was discussed on here with a repeat attempt at the County in mind, however, Hendo name-checks this race and mentions him wanting the extra half mile. Thoughts?

[ComplyOrDie]

Hadn’t realised that First Street’s original +5 for the Lossiemouth race has been changed to +2 putting him on a mark of 143. He was discussed on here with a repeat attempt at the County in mind, however, Hendo name-checks this race and mentions him wanting the extra half mile. Thoughts?

Did he also say Martin Pipe as an option too?

Hope it was a Henderson appeal that got him changed, last time I remember that happening was Dame De Compagnie, and we know how that ended.

Hopefully he'll have a re-think about the County now too.

[jrjr]

Did he also say Martin Pipe as an option too?

Hope it was a Henderson appeal that got him changed, last time I remember that happening was Dame De Compagnie, and we know how that ended.

Hopefully he'll have a re-think about the County now too.

In the ATR article he mentions the step up in trip and says he gets in the Coral. Doesn’t mention the Pipe, might be because he thought he was 146, gist of the snippet was ‘poor old First Street’, going up in the weights’. Don’t know when the mark was changed, presumably quite recently.

[Craigy14]

Fairly happy with Hiddenvalley Lake only being given 2lbs.

He is high in the weights but I think there could be a lot more to come from him. I think if it wasn’t for Robcour already being double handed in the stayers he could easily go for that race imo. There have been winners with a decent weight carrying performance and he hits a lot of the trends. The main dangers or novices look likely to go for the Pipe imo.

[Lobos]

Sa Majeste doing a Ballyburn. Seems more popular for this today over the Pipe. Where's he heading???