The CORAL CUP Handicap Hurdle

[Lbur4288]

I think with tips like these at this stage they kind of need inside knowledge of targets.
if he has that, wether he mentions it or not then it’s probably ok.
if not then it’s a bit guessey like spectre says.
if I was following him on Twitter I’d ask him if he knows trainers intentions.

I've done just that, I'll see what he comes back with (if anything)

[Spectre]

Next you’ll be saying he should have a GambleAware disclaimer as a footnote to his selection. We’re all on here backing horses 12 months in advance and he’s getting panned for a selection 8 weeks out. I’m also not sure what responsibility he has, it’s not a paid service.

And we have a whole thread on GL & DJ who’ve been putting handicappers up too!

We may be backing them over a twelve month period bet we're not putting them out there as tips though Jackie. I'm sure you know the difference?

And you also know how tipping something up for the Coral Cup (or the Boodles DJ and GL), makes no sense at this stage. FWIW I made the same point about Britzka on another thread if you didn't see it.

If someone wants to back something ultimately it's their choice buyer beware and all that, but as someone who influences others to back horses blind like Jimbo or the UTA guys, personally I think it's bad form with very little upside. As a percentage play it's right down at the bottom.

With all the races they could put something up in, do you think Gowel Road and Britzka are good tips to put up to a large band of followers at this stage of the season, or do you think they're poor?

As for responsibility, surely putting public tips up to followers comes with responsibility doesn't it? There will be a small percentage of people who follow these things blind. And it also requires credibility! You don't have to be right, but you have to be right often enough. And finally you need to be respected. And if you put these kind of tips up regularly this early, it's easy to lose respect.

As I've already said Williams, Lynch and Jennings seem to be amongst the good guys, but these kind of tips are questionable at best, and do them and their followers no favours.

[Spectre]

Is it that guessey though?.

Yes. He has no idea what will turn up for the race from the UK or Ireland. He has no idea what marks the Irish horses will get. He has no idea what will have had it's mark kept down by running in chases. Whether there are any French horses unraced in Britain. And specifically which horses may have had there mark heavily manipulated so they are ridiculously well in. On the other hand Gowel Road may still have some more improvement in him, but he's hardly been running out the back in 20 runner Irish handicap hurdles.

He's an admirable horse that could go there with a chance. Or he could go to the Pipe. He might run again before the Festival and go up again. He could go for a bonus race and get 5lbs. He could go straight there.

Guessy, seems like a good description to me CoD........

[JackieMoon33]

We may be backing them over a twelve month period bet we're not putting them out there as tips though Jackie. I'm sure you know the difference?

And you also know how tipping something up for the Coral Cup (or the Boodles DJ and GL), makes no sense at this stage. FWIW I made the same point about Britzka on another thread if you didn't see it.

If someone wants to back something ultimately it's their choice buyer beware and all that, but as someone who influences others to back horses blind like Jimbo or the UTA guys, personally I think it's bad form with very little upside. As a percentage play it's right down at the bottom.

With all the races they could put something up in, do you think Gowel Road and Britzka are good tips to put up to a large band of followers at this stage of the season, or do you think they're poor?

As for responsibility, surely putting public tips up to followers comes with responsibility doesn't it? There will be a small percentage of people who follow these things blind. And it also requires credibility! You don't have to be right, but you have to be right often enough. And finally you need to be respected. And if you put these kind of tips up regularly this early, it's easy to lose respect.

As I've already said Williams, Lynch and Jennings seem to be amongst the good guys, but these kind of tips are questionable at best, and do them and their followers no favours.

But the guy is just going about his business putting up selections (not tips) for races where he feels there is a case to be made and a price that he deems backable at that moment in time. It’s not a paid service and it’s not column in a National publication. Whether it makes sense or not is subjective and though it may not to you, surely others are allowed to put forward their handicap selections in their own time? We have individual handicap threads now and a general one with 18 pages that started in November; maybe the mods should shut them down!

Please take the above as friendly fire. I’m just struggling to see the issue. I won’t persist, derail the thread any further and potentially cause another scene this week

[JackieMoon33]

Yes. He has no idea what will turn up for the race from the UK or Ireland. He has no idea what marks the Irish horses will get. He has no idea what will have had it's mark kept down by running in chases. Whether there are any French horses unraced in Britain. And specifically which horses may have had there mark heavily manipulated so they are ridiculously well in. On the other hand Gowel Road may still have some more improvement in him, but he's hardly been running out the back in 20 runner Irish handicap hurdles.

He's an admirable horse that could go there with a chance. Or he could go to the Pipe. He might run again before the Festival and go up again. He could go for a bonus race and get 5lbs. He could go straight there.

Guessy, seems like a good description to me CoD........

Delete upon reflection

[Spectre]

But the guy is just going about his business putting up selections (not tips) for races where he feels there is a case to be made and a price that he deems backable at that moment in time. It’s not a paid service and it’s not column in a National publication. Whether it makes sense or not is subjective and though it may not to you, surely others are allowed to put forward their handicap selections in their own time? We have individual handicap threads now and a general one with 18 pages that started in November; maybe the mods should shut them down!

Please take the above as friendly fire. I’m just struggling to see the issue. I won’t persist, derail the thread any further and potentially cause another scene this week

I was taking it in the right spirit Jackie. It's a good debate.

I guess the question I'd ask you is if you were in a similar position to Jennings or Williams would you be putting handicappers up yet? Or would you be putting something up in the open or novice graded races, where the fields are starting to form? Surely the latter makes far more sense until we see the handicap entries.

[Muswell]

But the guy is just going about his business putting up selections (not tips) for races where he feels there is a case to be made and a price that he deems backable at that moment in time. It’s not a paid service and it’s not column in a National publication. Whether it makes sense or not is subjective and though it may not to you, surely others are allowed to put forward their handicap selections in their own time? We have individual handicap threads now and a general one with 18 pages that started in November; maybe the mods should shut them down!

Please take the above as friendly fire. I’m just struggling to see the issue. I won’t persist, derail the thread any further and potentially cause another scene this week

Would agree with this results will bear out whether it’s good or not but at least he stuck it out there no one needs to follow him in

[Spectre]

Would agree with this results will bear out whether it’s good or not

Actually this is the biggest issue I have with this kind of pick Muswell. Because all the information that's currently missing to make a single selection in a the race, if it wins it's more akin to a lottery ticket than a selection.

Lottery tickets win of course, but tipsters don't tell you to go and buy lottery tickets. Even if it wins it doesn't make it a good pick right now.

If he was saying I think he's one to consider as part of an early preview I could buy it. As a firm selection it's just not credible.

[JackieMoon33]

I was taking it in the right spirit Jackie. It's a good debate.

I guess the question I'd ask you is if you were in a similar position to Jennings or Williams would you be putting handicappers up yet? Or would you be putting something up in the open or novice graded races, where the fields are starting to form? Surely the latter makes far more sense until we see the handicap entries.

The Jennings and Williams positions are slightly different as Jennings has a schedule to meet and is ultimately forced to put bets up each week. I think he also has to be a little creative as people don’t want him or Lynch to put up short prices either. Therefore Jennings and Lynch have to move into handicap territory in order to cater to the public. Williams on the other hand is not working to a schedule so can put up selections when he wants and doesn’t need to hit certain numbers. However, his blog (or whatever you want to call it) has nowhere near the same reach or engagement. He’s also not being paid for it and therefore he can take a contrarian approach.

In conclusion, I see no harm in either of them selecting handicappers right now as we’re close enough to have something’s to work with (admittedly many pieces missing). In respect of Jennings, he’s running out of other races to put up whilst steering clear of the favs. For Williams it’s probably similar in regards to wanting to put something up that is ‘outside the box’ in a race that hasn’t taken shape yet. He’s likely wanting to avoid horses that, at this moment in time, everyone already knows about, has backed, or are too short.

I would not follow any of them blindly but at the same time, let them crack on with what they’re doing without it bothering me.

[robith]

Since we're on the topic, Williams seems to post much more infrequently this year than previous years? Far fewer ante post tips and he used to have a full write up and selection every Saturday. No columns since last season, doesn't seem to reply much anymore. Wonder if he's had a bit of grief and scaled back, he did used to get some pelters

[JamieSensible]

I have already backed 2 horses for this, Blue Sari as I think he's having a below par chasing campaign soo far and his mark is still very appealing for this race.

I also backed Gowel Road following that tip, I did watch the horses races back and essentially did my own research, but like many Handicap selections this far out its soo easy to poke hole in.

I think we can all agree by the end of the DRF we should have 95% of our ideas locked down for the festival. the 5% will be whatever Emmit Mullins runs the week before Cheltenham and goes for a bonus!

[Muswell]

Actually this is the biggest issue I have with this kind of pick Muswell. Because all the information that's currently missing to make a single selection in a the race, if it wins it's more akin to a lottery ticket than a selection.

Lottery tickets win of course, but tipsters don't tell you to go and buy lottery tickets. Even if it wins it doesn't make it a good pick right now.

If he was saying I think he's one to consider as part of an early preview I could buy it. As a firm selection it's just not credible.

I don’t disagree and wouldn’t be backing personally, I’ll be honest I haven’t read his rationale but my point was people having a strong opinion isn’t necessarily a bad thing he isn’t charging people for it or anything they can take what they want from it. We’ll all have bets who won’t go where we want / hope / expect them to

[nortonscoin200]

A quarter of the races at this year's Festival (7) have the favourite priced up at 9-4 or shorter.
More than half of all the races (15) have the favourite top priced 5-1 or shorter.
The only races where the favourite is still double figures are 8 of the handicaps (Shan Blue at 8-1 makes the Ultima the exception).

Does this go some way to explaining why everyone from tipsters to FJs are turning to the handicaps in a search for a working man's price rather than taking on some of the shorties?

[Lobos]

Maybe but we are playing into the bookies hands betting handicaps this early. At this stage apart from a few that trainers have said are targeting certain races, we don't have a clue what will turn up and where.

[Scooby91]

Fancying something and tipping something are two very different things.

A tip for the non-handicaps, and perhaps the Pertemps Final when you can make an educated assessment of what will turn up and how they measure up is fair enough.

A professional tipster putting something up for a handicap, at a point in time when almost anything could turn up, with handicap marks yet defined, is something different.

6 of the last 10 winners of the last Coral Cups were 16/1 or bigger including 28/1 and 33/1 x2. There are sure to be any number of plots, and completely unexposed horses in the entry list, which may be 150 or more horses strong. there may even be horses coming back from a chasing campaign, or a very well handicapped horse or two that have only run in France. How on earth does anyone know how Gowel Road will shape up to any number of undefined horses? That's not to say someone shouldn't back Gowel Road if they wanted to. He fits some key trends (misses 1 big one), so he may well end up on some longlists, but you just couldn't credibly put him up as a tip.

Each to their own at the end of the day. I have a couple of very strong fancies for the handicaps, but I wouldn't dream of putting them up as tips when there is so much that can happen yet. I also can't say I wouldn't back Gowel Road myself at some point, but it wouldn't be until I'd seen the entries at the earliest, and possibly even the weights. I'd also want nrnb or confirmation he goes here and not the Pipe.

I'd think your being harsh here. I don't know the guy personally at all, but GW went for the County last year, he clearly wants 2 and a half, has course and distance form, and nigels not going to take his son of and go for the Martin Pipe. He's not for me, but it's logical.

I have put up atleast 1 bet for handicaps already without cash-out or NRNB, with the 1st being an any race bet in October. it's easy enough to logically work out the targets miles in advance such as the likes of Saint roi in the county...

I was wrong with my earliest handicap bet last year, RWF for the Kim muir at 33s, but again it was easy to spot, and should the whole gordon situation have not happened, he'd arguably have probably ran and won.

You can see the uk marks, and I can find out what the irish mark will be anyway ( without another run) but you don't really need that at all, and can feasibly guess within a pound or 2, and know full well the type that will be slapped harshly, such as saint felicien will be after his 3rd run. I'd have a very solid opinion, and bets placed well before entries, and definitely the weights.

Too much is made of "plot" horses, from very limited viewing of the threads to see if what I put up has been mentioned, anything that gordon runs and dissapoints seems to be seen as a "plot", so that is where NRs will come from, rather than having a logical educated guess, and factoring in to the price.

I dont see anything wrong with early handicap bets myself, or what difference it being a tip makes. In terms of weights, a pound or 2 over your working out, isn't going to stop a 500kg horse winning, if your right, and you've only got to be careful enough in that regard, with the pipe and the Kim muir.