Originally posted by Spectre
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The CORAL CUP Handicap Hurdle
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Fancying something and tipping something are two very different things.
A tip for the non-handicaps, and perhaps the Pertemps Final when you can make an educated assessment of what will turn up and how they measure up is fair enough.
A professional tipster putting something up for a handicap, at a point in time when almost anything could turn up, with handicap marks yet defined, is something different.
6 of the last 10 winners of the last Coral Cups were 16/1 or bigger including 28/1 and 33/1 x2. There are sure to be any number of plots, and completely unexposed horses in the entry list, which may be 150 or more horses strong. there may even be horses coming back from a chasing campaign, or a very well handicapped horse or two that have only run in France. How on earth does anyone know how Gowel Road will shape up to any number of undefined horses? That's not to say someone shouldn't back Gowel Road if they wanted to. He fits some key trends (misses 1 big one), so he may well end up on some longlists, but you just couldn't credibly put him up as a tip.
Each to their own at the end of the day. I have a couple of very strong fancies for the handicaps, but I wouldn't dream of putting them up as tips when there is so much that can happen yet. I also can't say I wouldn't back Gowel Road myself at some point, but it wouldn't be until I'd seen the entries at the earliest, and possibly even the weights. I'd also want nrnb or confirmation he goes here and not the Pipe.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Originally posted by Spectre View PostFancying something and tipping something are two very different things.
A tip for the non-handicaps, and perhaps the Pertemps Final when you can make an educated assessment of what will turn up and how they measure up is fair enough.
A professional tipster putting something up for a handicap, at a point in time when almost anything could turn up, with handicap marks yet defined, is something different.
Gavin Lynch and David Jennings putting up Britzka for the Boodles on the other hand is a different story.....
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
I wouldn't call 'Jimbo' a professional, yes he has a fair Twitter following but that's about it.
Gavin Lynch and David Jennings putting up Britzka for the Boodles on the other hand is a different story.....
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I think we can all dial things down in response the Stuart ‘Jimbo’ Williams ‘tip’ for the Coral Cup. Whether he’s deemed professional or not (he did have some columns on Sporting Life and Oddschecker), he’s just making a case for a selection in the Coral Cup. It’s not as if he’s gone max bet; it’s only 1pt each way. Yes it’s a tough race to predict this far out but no one is asking us to follow suit and commit to a bet too. He’s been pretty decent in the past which is why the markets react so he’s obviously built a reputation on success.
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
He's not professional but he's certainly high profile and appears to have a decent following in the Twitter sphere. Popular enough to see the price disappear anyway.
He strikes me as one of the good guys actually, but I think he's got this one completely wrong. It might end up winning, and if it does he can claim he's a brilliant tipster, but the truth is he'll have got seriously lucky.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Originally posted by Spectre View Post
That's the point really. He has people who follow his tips, and therefore he has a responsibility.
He strikes me as one of the good guys actually, but I think he's got this one completely wrong. It might end up winning, and if it does he can claim he's a brilliant tipster, but the truth is he'll have got seriously lucky.
And we have a whole thread on GL & DJ who’ve been putting handicappers up too!
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Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
Next you’ll be saying he should have a GambleAware disclaimer as a footnote to his selection. We’re all on here backing horses 12 months in advance and he’s getting panned for a selection 8 weeks out. I’m also not sure what responsibility he has, it’s not a paid service.
And we have a whole thread on GL & DJ who’ve been putting handicappers up too!
but I kind of see your point.
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I'm keeping an eye on "Finest evermore" for this race, racing mainly 2m 4f in recent races, finished a fair 4th last time out on a rating of 137, I'm expecting it may go a rating of 142 or 143 if it did run in this race. I just don't think it will go for the mares but I'm hoping it will go for this race. I've got it at 12/1 to win any race at the moment. I just think its got a little something in hand off its mark still. And it was also giving heaven help us 3lbs in its last race and ran on too so 2m 5f should not be a problem either. There's not many that stick out for me except this horse. I know its early days yet and the horse still needs to be entered but at 12/1 is worth a bit at this stage for me at the moment.
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Originally posted by Quevega View Postif not then it’s a bit guessey like spectre says.
Already knows the horses rating. The horse won over c&d in November. Bred to see the trip out.
He's not a horse I'd back yet, however I can see why he would be put up. He makes a whole lot more sense than Britzka for the Boodles.
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Originally posted by Quevega View Post
Due diligence is a worthy quality. Especially when in a position of influence.
but I kind of see your point.
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
Is it that guessey though?
Already knows the horses rating. The horse won over c&d in November. Bred to see the trip out.
He's not a horse I'd back yet, however I can see why he would be put up. He makes a whole lot more sense than Britzka for the Boodles.
I know he was going to.
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