Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Studfarm254]

Anyone think embittered will go for this again, i see hes entered in the irish arkle again he was well backed for this last year aswell hes 141 rated now which is a nice mark for this one

Just realised this is the only race I haven’t had a bet in so first I’ve looked at it properly and this is who I’ve landed on. Hits basically all the top trends. Was backed into 9/2 for the race last year and was cruising along when he came down. His Irish mark before the race last year was 144 and was put up to 146 for Cheltenham. They ran this horse into the ground last year and Irish mark is down to 141. Finally given him a bit of break and hopefully it’ll freshen him up a bit before running in the Irish Arkle again where he should be able to protect his mark. I imagine he’ll run again this year on a similar mark to last year, possibly a lb or 2 lighter even. Now it’s NRNB he’s an absolutely cracking bet at nearly 18/1 with the hills boost, anyone that says differently is a wonder spoofer

[Birds Nest]

Just realised this is the only race I haven’t had a bet in so first I’ve looked at it properly and this is who I’ve landed on. Hits basically all the top trends. Was backed into 9/2 for the race last year and was cruising along when he came down. His Irish mark before the race last year was 144 and was put up to 146 for Cheltenham. They ran this horse into the ground last year and Irish mark is down to 141. Finally given him a bit of break and hopefully it’ll freshen him up a bit before running in the Irish Arkle again where he should be able to protect his mark. I imagine he’ll run again this year on a similar mark to last year, possibly a lb or 2 lighter even. Now it’s NRNB he’s an absolutely cracking bet at nearly 18/1 with the hills boost, anyone that says differently is a wonder spoofer

Being tapping into him for a few weeks now after highlighting him on the handicap thread cracking bet, was going very nicely last year, cant say how he would have been but imo would have gone close, also had him also in a couple of doubles with eclair de beaufeu for the county, which also looks like a cracker. Am hoping eclair de beaufeu doesnt rock up here though...

[charlie]

Added Thedevilscoachman @ 20/1 NRNB.

[Stormez]

Added Thedevilscoachman @ 20/1 NRNB.

Was looking at this race yesterday & landed on this fella & Gentleman De Mee.

Think he’ll be my first play in it, chased a couple of potential top notchers home this season, and some of his hurdles form from last year is starting to stack up nicely.

Would just like to see him brush up his jumping, been pretty scratchy so far.

[charlie]

Was looking at this race yesterday & landed on this fella & Gentleman De Mee.

Think he’ll be my first play in it, chased a couple of potential top notchers home this season, and some of his hurdles form from last year is starting to stack up nicely.

Would just like to see him brush up his jumping, been pretty scratchy so far.

Aye, and I liked how he finished LTO despite taking half the 2nd last home with him.

[nortonscoin200]

Added Thedevilscoachman @ 20/1 NRNB.

I've also booked a spot on the coach - reckon he's got a great chance.

[charlie]

I've also booked a spot on the coach - reckon he's got a great chance.

Yeh I'd like to see a 2nd/3rd/4th at the DRF.

[Can't Catch Me]

Im in the fan club too and he was my first bet for the race. Thought he was given quite a tender ride behind FH and CS first time up and that looks good form. Hopefully be better off at the weights with CS in this race.... Although he's certainly not going to be one the handicapper misses for these connections.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Funambule Sivola up 2lbs to 154 for his win at the weekend...

All roads lead to the Grand Annual now?

[Speedy17]

Funambule Sivola up 2lbs to 154 for his win at the weekend...

All roads lead to the Grand Annual now?

I really hope so and think he's got a brilliant chance. Just as a coincidence he's on the same mark now that Ibleo was for the race last season for the same connections, finishing third, from third top weight. Before Midnight went up 1 and is now 148 and I'd be on side with both of these now for the race but Funambule Sivola being my #1.

[Istabraq]

Just realised this is the only race I haven’t had a bet in so first I’ve looked at it properly and this is who I’ve landed on. Hits basically all the top trends. Was backed into 9/2 for the race last year and was cruising along when he came down. His Irish mark before the race last year was 144 and was put up to 146 for Cheltenham. They ran this horse into the ground last year and Irish mark is down to 141. Finally given him a bit of break and hopefully it’ll freshen him up a bit before running in the Irish Arkle again where he should be able to protect his mark. I imagine he’ll run again this year on a similar mark to last year, possibly a lb or 2 lighter even. Now it’s NRNB he’s an absolutely cracking bet at nearly 18/1 with the hills boost, anyone that says differently is a wonder spoofer

Thanks for this, followed you in.
Watched last years race yesterday and he did look to be swinging away, I know the race hadn't got going but the money for him was significant.
Managed to get a couple of mates to snare the 16s before it disappeared…

[jrjr]

Been chipping away at MAGIC SAINT for this since NRNB came in (stayed true to my promise of not dabbling in the handicaps until this concession kicked in).

Went off 9/2 fav in this race three years ago (New Course) off a rating of 149. Subsequently won the Nov 2020 Paddy Power Chase (Old Course) off 152, rising to a career high mark of 159. Been steadily dropping down the weights since.

Copied the following from the excellent 'Trainer Stats' thread by ToniC

RACE TRENDS

• 9/12 winners had 7+ prior chase starts YEP
• 9/12 had 2 or fewer prior chase wins NEARLY (3 UK wins)
• 8/12 had at least 2 prior course runs, 10/12 had at least 1 YEP
• 9/12 had previously run over fences at Cheltenham YEP
• 7/12 had run at Cheltenham already that season YEP
• 8/12 were in at least their 2nd season as chasers YEP
• Only 4/12 had won a race in their last 3 starts YEP
• 8/12 were within 2lbs of a career high chase mark NOPE (he wouldn't be winning this if he was))
• 9/12 had finished in the top 3 in at least 1 of their 3 prior starts, 7/12 had done in at least 2 of their last 3 NOPE (beaten a nk into 4th)

Dropped this week to 145, his lowest rating since the aforementioned GA in 2019. Had Tom Buckley onboard for his last two runs, if Paul Nicholls sticks to him then his 5lb claim would mean he effectively runs off 140. His three highest RPRs are all over trips 2m1f and shorter and I think PN will fancy him here rather than the Plate.

Am currently filling my boots with the 33/1 NRNB offered by Bet 365, he's a good bet and anyone that says differently is a 'wonder spoofer'.

[JamieSensible]

Been chipping away at MAGIC SAINT for this since NRNB came in (stayed true to my promise of not dabbling in the handicaps until this concession kicked in).

Went off 9/2 fav in this race three years ago (New Course) off a rating of 149. Subsequently won the Nov 2020 Paddy Power Chase (Old Course) off 152, rising to a career high mark of 159. Been steadily dropping down the weights since.

Copied the following from the excellent 'Trainer Stats' thread by ToniC

RACE TRENDS

• 9/12 winners had 7+ prior chase starts YEP
• 9/12 had 2 or fewer prior chase wins NEARLY (3 UK wins)
• 8/12 had at least 2 prior course runs, 10/12 had at least 1 YEP
• 9/12 had previously run over fences at Cheltenham YEP
• 7/12 had run at Cheltenham already that season YEP
• 8/12 were in at least their 2nd season as chasers YEP
• Only 4/12 had won a race in their last 3 starts YEP
• 8/12 were within 2lbs of a career high chase mark NOPE (he wouldn't be winning this if he was))
• 9/12 had finished in the top 3 in at least 1 of their 3 prior starts, 7/12 had done in at least 2 of their last 3 NOPE (beaten a nk into 4th)

Dropped this week to 145, his lowest rating since the aforementioned GA in 2019. Had Tom Buckley onboard for his last two runs, if Paul Nicholls sticks to him then his 5lb claim would mean he effectively runs off 140. His three highest RPRs are all over trips 2m1f and shorter and I think PN will fancy him here rather than the Plate.

Am currently filling my boots with the 33/1 NRNB offered by Bet 365, he's a good bet and anyone that says differently is a 'wonder spoofer'.

Does it not bother you that his last 2 runs have been over 2m4f?

Just reviewed and seen he has regularly mixed the trips, although seems to be going better over 2m4f. Potential Paddy Power Plate?

[Middle_Of_March]

Absolutely cannot get my head around this race as an antepost proposition and have done nothing. But I might add Saint Sam. He probably won’t run but at 20/1 NRNB, that has to be value. He’d be half the price if he turns up wouldn’t he?

[Kevloaf]

Absolutely cannot get my head around this race as an antepost proposition and have done nothing. But I might add Saint Sam. He probably won’t run but at 20/1 NRNB, that has to be value. He’d be half the price if he turns up wouldn’t he?

The problem you'd have is that he'd be unlikely to have anything at all up his sleeve in terms of handicap mark... he'll be running on merit this weekend, so wherever he finishes is probably as good as he is.

If that's too good, no problem, you'd get your money back.... and too bad he may not travel.

Just in the middle though, will he be 'well handicapped' enough?

Still, wouldn't go off 20/1 for Willie despite all that, so no real harm IMO.