Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[BigChaang]

Given what Willie has said about GdM today - Thedevilscoachman is the JP runner I’m most interested in here. Just needs the 3rd run.

Very similar chasing campaign to GdM so far this season (or at least before today)

What has Willie said about GdM , Jono .??.

[jono]

What has Willie said about GdM , Jono .??.

Mentioned after his race today and a page or so back but quote below BC

"He is very hard on himself and mightn't be ready to go across the water just yet. I think he might be a horse we keep at home and find races which might suit him.

"The Arkle isn't foremost on my mind and I'll have a word with connections but the Flyingbolt Chase at Navan (March 5) is an option. We'll try and play a lower ball and try and win a Graded race at home."

[Istabraq]

Gentleman De Mee

Willie interviewed on Racing TV 2 minutes ago, mentioned the Flying Bolt Grade 3 at Navan on March 5th for him, over 2M4F, more likely than coming to Cheltenham

Yet it hasn't stopped every bookie, without fail, from giving his Grand Annual price a severe haircut.
I know they can't take everything said by trainers literally but this horse wasn't far behind Haut en Coloeurs over Christmas and has just beaten a horse 34 lengths who last time out was given an RPR of 141, what the UK handicapper would make of that is anyone's guess but it won't be favourable.
But all academic, as SW has rightly said Mullins rarely sends novice chasers to festival handicaps...

[Splinterboy82]

Given what Willie has said about GdM today - Thedevilscoachman is the JP runner I’m most interested in here. Just needs the 3rd run.

Very similar chasing campaign to GdM so far this season (or at least before today)

Agree with this & Noel Meade far more the JP man for a novice in hcap chase than Mullins. However, I know he’s blindingly obvious, but is Coeur Sublime not an absolute stand out candidate for this? Has the previous festival form, top Irish novice form & probably been running to lower form than capable of due to the yard issues last few months too. Anything mid 140s & he’ll surely go mighty close here….

[RoadToCheltenham]

Agree with this & Noel Meade far more the JP man for a novice in hcap chase than Mullins. However, I know he’s blindingly obvious, but is Coeur Sublime not an absolute stand out candidate for this? Has the previous festival form, top Irish novice form & probably been running to lower form than capable of due to the yard issues last few months too. Anything mid 140s & he’ll surely go mighty close here….

Coeur Sublime given 148 in Ireland so we can assume he'll be at least 152/153 in the UK.

[Splinterboy82]

Coeur Sublime given 148 in Ireland so we can assume he'll be at least 152/153 in the UK.

Fair enough, had not clocked that tbf. I can see though this rate having a highly rated top weight circa 158 as a lot dodging the QMCC for obvious reasons. I really like Venetia’s horse’s but both run on Sat & could be adding 4-7lb onto their marks too

[RoadToCheltenham]

Fair enough, had not clocked that tbf. I can see though this rate having a highly rated top weight circa 158 as a lot dodging the QMCC for obvious reasons. I really like Venetia’s horse’s but both run on Sat & could be adding 4-7lb onto their marks too

Snap. Was hoping Funambule Sivola would go straight to Cheltenham after his last run...

Editeur du Gite with Niall Houlihan claiming would interest me. Been the pilot for both wins at Chelt - one on the Old Course and one on the New.

[Splinterboy82]

Just looked & top rated was 158 last year, winner off 152. Can see something similar, maybe even a 160 rated horse running off top weight

[Benjy23]

Any thoughts on For Pleasure making all... Running at the weekend against Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki so doesn't want to finish too close. But this must be his best chance of getting that bonus.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Any thoughts on For Pleasure making all... Running at the weekend against Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki so doesn't want to finish too close. But this must be his best chance of getting that bonus.

I would have to back him and watch from behind a cushion.

[Benjy23]

I would have to back him and watch from behind a cushion.

Aye, I'm not even convinced how he'd go. Quite like the scenario where he's let loose on the front end. But seems hugely unlikely in the GA.

[Splinterboy82]

I would have to back him and watch from behind a cushion.

I’ve a nasty vision of him clouting 1 at a furious pace & taking a handful out with him - lost track of the amount of well backed / handicapped Grand Annual horses I’ve been on that have been brought down / hampered / fallen when going well. Even money to get round half the time!

[Spectre]

Agree with this & Noel Meade far more the JP man for a novice in hcap chase than Mullins. However, I know he’s blindingly obvious, but is Coeur Sublime not an absolute stand out candidate for this? Has the previous festival form, top Irish novice form & probably been running to lower form than capable of due to the yard issues last few months too. Anything mid 140s & he’ll surely go mighty close here….

I think if you had a highly rated novice you'd more likely have a tilt at a weak looking Arkle.

It's worth looking back at Arkle's that have shaped up similarly, and generally you get a decent sized field and some bigger priced horses running good races.

Specifically with Coeur Sublime I'd give it a crack. Off a mark in the 150's it would be a good season to roll the dice in my opinion. He was only 4 lengths off Ferny Hollow first time up and that level of form would put him close.

He gave Riviere D'etel 13lbs second time up, which reduces to 7lbs in March, and he did too much trying to go with Ferny. Ridden with more restraint I don't think there would be whole lot between Couer Sublime and Riviere D'etel. He was the better hurdler, and their RPR's over fences are very similar. In fact he's less exposed than her over fences. Given some think Riviere D'etel would have beaten Blue Lord at Leopardstown, I think there's cause for thinking he's be right in the mix.

20/1 nrnb for the Arkle is one of the better prices out there in my opinion. Whereas 9/1-10/1 for the Grand Annual has limited appeal in what will be a very competitive handicap with plenty of horses that have been plotted for the race. Coeur Sublime whilst entitled to improve doesn't exactly look laid out.

Thedevilscoachman is potentially fitting the bill better than him in the novice division, and possibly even more so Buddy Rich, who Elliott has clearly targeted at this from a long way out. Plus there's the usual mix of horses that could run round there blindfolded who always run a big race over course and distance. The Grand Annual could be harder to win than the Arkle, and I think they're far better going there.

The acid test for me is taking my betting hat off and thinking like an owner. Which race would I rather go to, and it has to be the Arkle surely.

[nortonscoin200]

Anyone have any ideas where they might give Thedevilscoachman a run to get a handicap rating for the Grand Annual.

Time is running out and I just wonder if this is the target.

He's not entered up anywhere and I can't see an obvious race for him over 2 miles in Ireland.

Entries for the Grand Annual have to be in by noon on February 21 but my reading of the rules is that he's got until February 27 to have his third run.

The race conditions say: "The British Horseracing Authority has modified paragraph 6 of the Weights and Handicapping Code for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, February 27th may be taken into account. "

[Dandrew99]

Anyone have any ideas where they might give Thedevilscoachman a run to get a handicap rating for the Grand Annual.

Time is running out and I just wonder if this is the target.

He's not entered up anywhere and I can't see an obvious race for him over 2 miles in Ireland.

Entries for the Grand Annual have to be in by noon on February 21 but my reading of the rules is that he's got until February 27 to have his third run.

The race conditions say: "The British Horseracing Authority has modified paragraph 6 of the Weights and Handicapping Code for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, February 27th may be taken into account. "

Theres a beginners chase he could go for over 2m4f at Gowran which he could go for. Other than the Flying Bolt (which is past the deadline you said anyway) I struggle to see what else he could go for really, assuming he wants to stay in novice company in Ireland.