Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Quevega]

No seriously, what is there to like about him ??

He looks full of ability and is just a bit mad.
So IMO he looks well treated still.

He's arguably won 2 more races than it looks as he stopped to a walk twice in the run in.
He travels very strongly and jumps very well which is handy in the Grand Annual.

Worth watching his last 2 races, and his run in the Ultima last season where he led the field for a long way.
He also races prominently which should help, and signs in the win last time that he might be suited to a little shorter and he might just be a little less mad over 2 miles on a sharp enough course.

Blinkers on and racing prominently he could do a Global Citizen. But I think with the long enough run after the last I'd prefer him to be held on to and do a Bellvano.
The jockey will definitely need to fool the horse and not try and ride him.

Or Dog it.

[Runragged]

I'm still waiting for someone to put up something else to run higher than their mark.........

I say again, if Found a Fifty were in this race would people back it ? Would he be Favourite?

Found A Fifty would probably be on a mark of around 155 (153 Irish we know) and jumps right handed. Big ask for a novice to win a handicap off that mark with no experience of Cheltenham either whilst giving ground away at his fences...

Better handicapped horses than My Mate Mozzie is very subjective, but here is my list of those that are ahead of their mark:

Libberty Hunter - Won last twice so no idea what his cap is. Beat Matata last time by 1 length who has since finished 2nd to JPR One and is rated 5lb higher. Libberty Hunter is only 7lb higher than winning mark.

Madara - Another to have won the last twice and is progressive. Is up 10lb from that last win in Ireland but won it relatively comfortably and in that kind of form we again don't know where he maxes out.

Sa Fureur - Only the three chase runs, completing twice with the third a fall at the third last on chase debut in a very hot novice when still in contention. His 2nd beat 2 1/4 lengths to Quilixios who has an Irish rating of 150 and is fancied in some quarters for the Arkle reads very well with Sa Fureur only rated 145 UK. Did pull up when fav for Coral Cup last year on only visit to Cheltenham and arguable whether he is 'experienced' enough for a race like this. But potentially ahead of his handicap mark.

Demnat - Ok, French recruit for Venetia with just one run in the UK, winning a handicap over 2 1/2m easily which saw him get a 10lb rise. Won so easily though then no idea if handicap has caught up with him. Interestingly he runs in a handicap chase over 2m at Newbury on Friday. Win that, gets a penalty but would then probably get him into the Grand Annual. Win it well enough and he would be one we know for a fact is well handicapped.

In Excelsis Deo - Plenty of form lines to suggest that he is well handicapped. Absolutely flew home when given far too much to do on seasonal debut, eventually beaten 2 1/2 lengths, with just 1/2 length behind 2nd who has won twice since. Next up with 2nd to Madara, beat 3 1/4 lengths, who has won again since which IED gets a 9lb pull for that defeat now. Was then still in contention when unseating at the last at Sandown. Hold up horse who needs a strongly run 2m with a stiff finish so looks to have plenty to like.

Saint Segal - Another with plenty of form lines to suggest well handicapped. Strongly run 2m suits however not the most reliable of jumpers and has a habit of throwing in a mistake. Certainly is capable of running "higher than their mark".

[Runragged]

Pauling appears fairly confident in Harpers Brook, and he's going to be wearing blinkers, so he'll look even cooler if he dogs the finish.
Love horses like this.
Win or lose, still cool.

Record going L/H: 3F115P0 - Wins came in a 4 runner novice hurdle when 10/11 fav and a 5 runner nov handicap chase when 11/10 fav and off a mark of 130.
Record going R/H: 1422221 - Only 'poor' run was in a grade 2.

Four runs at Cheltenham, Fell, last of 5 beaten 50 lengths, Pulled up (Admittedly in the Ultima over trip too far) & 10th beaten 55 lengths in Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Top three RPRs all on right handed tracks and on good to soft or faster ground which would point towards being his optimum conditions. Obvious caveat to that is he has just the one chase run at 2m and won. He hasn't yet tried 2m on soft, or 2m on a left handed track/Cheltenham.

[Quevega]

Record going L/H: 3F115P0 - Wins came in a 4 runner novice hurdle when 10/11 fav and a 5 runner nov handicap chase when 11/10 fav and off a mark of 130.
Record going R/H: 1422221 - Only 'poor' run was in a grade 2.

Four runs at Cheltenham, Fell, last of 5 beaten 50 lengths, Pulled up (Admittedly in the Ultima over trip too far) & 10th beaten 55 lengths in Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Top three RPRs all on right handed tracks and on good to soft or faster ground which would point towards being his optimum conditions. Obvious caveat to that is he has just the one chase run at 2m and won. He hasn't yet tried 2m on soft, or 2m on a left handed track/Cheltenham.

Not a left handed right handed obsessive myself. And those stats aren't particularly strong.
He doesn't seem to hang or jump either way.
The Cheltenham form don't really bother me as there are arguable reasons.

Before Global Citizen won the annual he'd been beaten 75l, 20l, and PU in his previous Cheltenham runs.
Just using him as an example but not really related, aside from the trainer has a good feel for what might be needed in this race.

Don't get me wrong he's one of many I've backed and I got the 25-1 available on Tuesday with MGM, but think 20-1 is value in a race where I think the top weights are vulnerable this year.
Backed Madara, St Felicien, Saint Droux, Sa Fureur, In Excelsis Deo & Fils Doudairies (likely not to run)

Libberty Hunter on my radar if ground looks like coming up soft. Trainer won't run otherwise I don't think.
Actually backed Demnat for the plate and Muir and will be watching tomorrow.
Not unusual for Venetia to run one so close to the Festival.

[Rooster Booster]

Not a left handed right handed obsessive myself. And those stats aren't particularly strong.
He doesn't seem to hang or jump either way.
The Cheltenham form don't really bother me as there are arguable reasons.

Before Global Citizen won the annual he'd been beaten 75l, 20l, and PU in his previous Cheltenham runs.
Just using him as an example but not really related, aside from the trainer has a good feel for what might be needed in this race.

Don't get me wrong he's one of many I've backed and I got the 25-1 available on Tuesday with MGM, but think 20-1 is value in a race where I think the top weights are vulnerable this year.
Backed Madara, St Felicien, Saint Droux, Sa Fureur, In Excelsis Deo & Fils Doudairies (likely not to run)

Libberty Hunter on my radar if ground looks like coming up soft. Trainer won't run otherwise I don't think.
Actually backed Demnat for the plate and Muir and will be watching tomorrow.
Not unusual for Venetia to run one so close to the Festival.

He won’t run him even if conditions are perfect. The blokes a complete waste of space and spends most of his time coming up with a dozen reasons why his horse will stay in its stable until he can find a three runner race somewhere.

[Lobos]

Cheers Q and RR. Great write ups. Lots to ponder. Still not sure where Mozzie will run. 50/50

[Middle_Of_March]

I can’t emphasise how much I love Saint Roi here. The way they go in the Grand Annual will be perfect for him. They always go too quick and he likes to be snuck into the race. A big field, strong gallop handicap over a course he loves is going to be perfect for him.

He’s had 3 festival runs:
- Gagged up in a county Hurdle.
- Placed in a champion hurdle when beaten 6 lengths by an almost in her prime Honeysuckle.
- Placed in an Arkle when making a massive mistake at the last.


I know he’s coming here off 152 but the race is absolutely made for him,

[Quevega]

Saint Roi is an interesting horse but is a no bet for me at the current prices.

I can see him potentially running well and even winning, but he's quite possibly the worst handicap plot in the history of this race.

His county win was off 137.

He was rated 153 in the arkle and then ran what on the face of it was his best run over fences over 2m 4f at Aintree behind Banbridge - or does that make that form look a bit iffy.

He's then been beaten 20l, 18l, 46l, 7l in a handicap and 65l - Mostly jumped like a twat and he gets given a mark of 152.

So he runs off the same rating he was given at Aintree, so depends on if you believe the form of that race or not.

But what is for sure, he has wasted 5 "out the back" runs to get fuck all off the handicapper.

[Benjy23]

Saint Roi is an interesting horse but is a no bet for me at the current prices.

I can see him potentially running well and even winning, but he's quite possibly the worst handicap plot in the history of this race.

His county win was off 137.

He was rated 153 in the arkle and then ran what on the face of it was his best run over fences over 2m 4f at Aintree behind Banbridge - or does that make that form look a bit iffy.

He's then been beaten 20l, 18l, 46l, 7l in a handicap and 65l - Mostly jumped like a twat and he gets given a mark of 152.

So he runs off the same rating he was given at Aintree, so depends on if you believe the form of that race or not.

But what is for sure, he has wasted 5 "out the back" runs to get fuck all off the handicapper.

Should've stopped pissing about and planned a season towards the Ryanair. It would've suited my early season antepost narrative anyway.

That line of thought probably means I should be backing him here. But I won't be at the prices now either.

[Eggs]

….Harpers Brook;

’Harper’s Brook will go for the Grand Annual. We will probably put a pair of blinkers on him this time. He had cheekpieces on last time and we have probably worked out how to get the most out of him. I am not saying he gives his all every time, but he is a very talented horse and maybe blinkers first time out will work in the Grand Annual.”

Hardy;
‘Hardy Du Seuil is in the Grand Annual and the Plate and I would like to go for the Grand Annual if he gets in. He ran a great race at Sandown on his reappearance and had been off the track. He could have done with a few more pounds to get in but if he does get in, he would have a chance.”

[Eggs]

….Madara;

Leech said: “We’re definitely leaning towards the Grand Annual and I think the ground will potentially be on the softer side, so I think as long as the ground stays that way – which I think it will – that is the most likely option.

[Eggs]

…..those looking for Venetia Williams entries, Gemirande now declared for this. Currently 66-1 in places.

She’s not declared Frero Banbou at this stage.

[Dandrew99]

In Excelsis Deo also not declared? That's a big surprise...

[TCH29]

In Excelsis Deo also not declared? That's a big surprise...

AP put him up the other day, so that would be odd.

[riccirich]

In Excelsis Deo also not declared? That's a big surprise...

He's been jocked up for the plate for a couple days.