Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Altior]

Call Me Lyreen anyone?

[DenmanSacre]

Really struggling with this one have to say at this stage

The two I liked were third time lucki and thyme white but both would want good ground

Don't like dinoblue, can't see her getting up the hill

Is final orders well in off 150, id be doubtful

Headscratcher

I'm the same. Small one on Global Citizen and probably leave it.

[Exar Essay]

He was 2nd in this race on heavy ground last year? Not sure I'll be using soft as the excuse if he's beaten.

I've realised you're going to be talking about Dad's Lad aren't you A fair challenge in that case.

I agree with not liking the look of many though! But keen to add at least one... And that was where I landed

Sorry, yes. Should’ve been clearer. I know you don’t like her, but Dinoblue’s maiden on heavy was a good effort. I think she’ll go well.

[Zachx02]

Call Me Lyreen anyone?

Yeah I like him, I think he may end up being a drifter on the day too, he seems to be one who likes big fields

[Altior]

Yeah I like him, I think he may end up being a drifter on the day too, he seems to be one who likes big fields

Won a grade 2 in the muck as well

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm the same. Small one on Global Citizen and probably leave it.

Yeah iv ended up with small bets on dad's lad and global citizen

Fancy about 10 in the Coral Cup and none in this

[JackieMoon33]

He’s want good ground too. Real toughie. Don’t really like any but like about 10 in the Coral Cup earlier on.

I’m not landing on anything here either and have more options in the Coral too. If I was forced then I think Epson Du Houx will run his race. Probably not ahead of the handicapper by much but he’s consistent, is an out and out 2 miler and will go on the ground.

[Eggs]

….Dancing on my Own n/r.

[Atlantic Viking]

Call Me Lyreen anyone?

Aye go on then, whatever turns you on, i'm open minded.

[Jrow]

Ive come down on Malystic, hes ran some belters this season and ran another cracker in a grade 2 latest. Hes in the form of his life and a massive price. Hes high enough in the weights but atleast he comes here in form

[Dandrew99]

The one I landed on is The Last Day. Only ran in the spring 4 times, form figures read 9111 (all of his chase wins). Does seem to improve for the spring ground, some form ties with other horses I like. Can't say it's a confident selection but everything else I liked for the race is a non runner so I'll have a small play on him.

On trends it should really be Thyme White or Third Time Lucki.

[Birds Nest]

Call Me Lyreen anyone?

Id be wary of him on this surface, elliott mentioned he only coped ok with soft previously, hes a better animal on good ground.

[Saxon Warrior]

Now we have Handicap Entries out, I am giving each of the 9 Handicap Threads a Bump

Check out Post 1, Page 1 on each Handicap Thread

Has the last 10 year stats for

* winners,
* placed horses,
* ratings of all of those, and
* lowest rating to get in each race

Good luck

PS: If you have any key stats you want me to add to Post 1 in the Handicaps, post on the thread, and I will copy them over to Post 1

[Saxon Warrior]

Also added to Page 1 Post 1


38 Early Entries in the Grand Annual at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:

Arclight
Calico (GER)
Dancing On My Own (IRE)
Demnat (FR)
Embittered (IRE)
Enniskerry (IRE)
Fils d'Oudairies (FR)
Flanking Maneuver (IRE)
Frere d'Armes (FR)
Frero Banbou (FR)
Gemirande (FR)
Gunsight Ridge
Guy (IRE)
Hardy du Seuil (FR)
Harper's Brook (IRE)
In Excelsis Deo (FR)
Libberty Hunter
Madara (FR)
Malystic
Maskada (FR)
Master Chewy (IRE)
Mighty Tom (IRE)
My Mate Mozzie (IRE)
Path d'Oroux (FR)
Pats Choice (IRE)
Pembroke
Pinkerton (IRE)
Sa Fureur (IRE)
Saint Felicien (FR)
Saint Roi (FR)
Saint Segal (FR)
Solness (FR)
Straw Fan Jack
The Folkes Tiara (IRE)
The King of Prs (IRE)
Tommy's Oscar (IRE)
Triple Trade
Unexpected Party (FR)

[Eggs]

….2023 trend analysis for reference;

THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- None were top weight. Only one top weight made the frame.
- Featured fourth or lower on the weights list after declarations.
- Had not run more than 8 times in last 12 months.
- Had won at least twice on a racecourse described as ‘galloping’ (as per Benjy23 & Istabraq, this trend might no longer apply).
- Had run in a G1 or G2 previously.
- Had won on a left handed track.
- Last ran at least 39 days ago.

9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Carried no more than 11st 6Ib (exception Le Prezien 11st 8Ib).
- Had not won more than 3 chases (12yo Croco Bay won 4).
- Did not win last time out, though 3 of the last 4 did finish in the first 3. 7 out of 10 did not win that season.
- Had run at least twice that season.

8 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- were not sent off Fav on the day (6 of the last 10 were 14-1 plus)
- Had run at Cheltenham before, 4 winning, 3 in a previous GA.

TRAINER TRENDS;

- Last 10 years Henderson has had 16 runners with 5 placing.
- Nicholls has done best, winning it 4 times, including twice in last 10 years.
- Ireland have won 4 of the last 10.

JOCKEY TRENDS;

- None of note, Davy Russell has won twice in last 10 years.
- Tends to go to a professional & not a claimer.

KEY TRIALS;

No reliable trials because trainers don’t want to show their hand to the assessor. In the last 6 years things have changed dramatically from winners having recent runs to lining up at the Festival with up to 3 months off (although Global Citizen ran in Feb). Look back at the last GA, though no horse has won it twice since Dulwich.

Global Citizen carried just 10st 6Ib, placed last time out, two G2 wins and only 1 Chase win. He had won 2 handicap hurdles on left handed galloping tracks and run over fences and hurdles at Cheltenham, including at the Festival.